How analytics determine what the best conference is each year is find the baseline efficiency margin a team would need to have to finish 9-9 in the conference. It's not the number of teams who are good enough to win it all, or the number of teams that make the NCAA Tournament. It's just a simple math problem, what's considered "average" for that conference?
Then once you've figured that out, you can rate the conferences.
This may, or may not be the best way to determine which is considered the best conference. After all, the SEC is heading into the third straight year of being the best conference in college basketball. But there was a massive difference in the league two years ago, and the league last year.
Two years ago the league featured 14 tournament teams, which is a record, but more importantly they had 6 teams land protected seeds. Including two #1 seeds (Auburn, Florida), and two #2 seeds (Alabama, Tennessee). The dominance of the non-conference season led to 4 top 10 teams in the NET, and 7 teams inside the top 20. A 9-9 team was determined by KenPom.com to have needed a +22.09 rating (or 22 points per 100 possessions better than the average D1 team) in the 2025 Southeastern Conference. That season was not the same as last year.
Last year the conference was again really good, in fact, considered the best. But the rating needed to finish 9-9 fell to +19.65. Still very good, but the top of the league slipped, and that was the difference. 10 teams made the NCAA Tournament, but three had protected seeds, and just one of those was a #1 seed. The SEC had no real title contenders outside of Florida, who lost in a second round upset to Iowa.
This upcoming season looks a lot more like last year than two years ago, with one team, Florida being at the top of the conference, and a National Title contender. The Florida Gators are considered a Final Four team, and the rest of the league is expected to be really very good. But can anyone else break though?
It's become popular to anoint Thomas Haugh the player of the year, but the Gators are loaded enough where Haugh is likely to be the best player for them over the course of the season, but on any given night he won't have to be. Texas A&M's PJ Haggerty is certainly going to challenge for the conference lead in scoring, along with Josh Hubbard at Mississippi State.Maybe Malachi Moreno becomes a double-double stud at Kentucky, or one of the elite freshmen like Jason Crowe, Jr. or Jordan Smith, Jr. do enough to push into the conversation.
But there are few surer bets going into the season than the quality of Vanderbilt's lead guard Tyler Tanner. As the top returning player in the SEC on EvanMiya.com's BPR rating (and trailing on Jeremy Fears nationally), Tanner was elite on all levels last year. He's a bit undersized, listed generously at 6'0 (he measured 5'10 3/4 barefoot at the NBA combine), but he makes so many plays and does so many things for the Commodores. It's impossible to see a path for Vandy to succeed this year that doesn't involve Tanner being awesome again.
As a freshman, he played about 20 minutes per game and 5.7 points. That blossomed to 33.5 minutes and 19.5 points last year. He went from an unknown, unranked recruit to a rotation player, to a star in the best basketball conference in the country in two years. Last year he ranked in the 88th percentile for efficiency in the country, and in the 98th percentile for guarded catch and shoots. He's at his best shooting the ball, or getting to the rim.
But he's not just a scorer, Tanner's assist rate was 109th nationally last year, and he was third in the league in total assists and assists per game last year behind Darius Acuff and Ja'Kobi Gillespie. He was first in steals in the league as well, but second in steal rate behind his teammate Duke Miles.
Tanner does it all for Vandy, and could be even better this year. If he is, he'll boost the Commodores even further up the rankings.
Seven of the top 20 scoring leaders from last season return. But Jeremiah Wilkinson transferred from Georgia to Arkansas, so he doesn't count as a returner.
Amari Allen, Alabama
Xzayvier Brown, Oklahoma
Blue Cain, Georgia
Rueben Chinyelu, Florida
Alex Condon, Florida
Thomas Haugh, Florida
Aden Holloway, Alabama
Josh Hubbard, Mississippi State
Ilias Kamardine, Ole Miss
Mackenzie Mgbako, Texas A&M
Mark Mitchell, Missouri
Malachi Moreno, Kentucky
Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn
Billy Richmond, Arkansas
Matas Vokietaitis, Texas
The transfer portal is the life blood to college sports these days. Sure you can sign an elite freshmen, but can you lure an NBA Draft level player back to college with a big payday? Last year Michigan built their championship roster on the back of transfers like Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara. Nebraska won their first (and second) NCAA Tournament game thanks to Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort. And of course Tennessee rode Maryland transfer Ja'Kobi Gillespie to the Elite 8. Three of the leagues top 10 players in BPR a year ago played the season before with another program, and five more in the top 20.
This season the projection numbers are a little wonky, but it's hard to see how one of the top players in the Big 12 last year, one of the best shooters in the country, and a guy who was certain to be drafted, won't be a major impact this season. Milan Momcilivic was awesome for Iowa State the last three years.
He's a 6'8 forward from Wisconsin, who played mostly at the four under TJ Otzelberger and the Cyclones. His size and shooting ability made him a difficult cover, and last year he attempted 280 threes in 37 games (or about 7.5 per game) and made 48.6% of those shots. That was second best in the country by percentage, but Momcilovic attempted 191 more threes than the leader. The only player close to him was Donovan Atwell, at Texas Tech, who shot 284 and made 45.8%.
Because of his elite shooting, his efficiency was in the top 1% nationally. But considering Momcilovic just an outside shooter would be a mistake. He's not much of a shot creator, but he is a good and willing passer, and his defense is underrated as well.
With all of that, there may not be a more important transfer in the entire league for the job security of the head coach. Mark Pope is a bit under fire from Big Blue Nation, and a good season from Momcilovic could take him a long way.
Denzel Aberdeen, Florida
Duke Brennan, Oklahoma
Donovan Dent, LSU
Zoom Diallo, Kentucky
Drew Fielder, Alabama
Ace Glass III, Vanderbilt
PJ Haggerty, Texas A&M
Jalen Haralson, Tennessee
Juke Harris, Tennessee
Terrence Hill, Jr, Tennessee
Isaiah Johnson, Texas
Kory Mincy, South Carolina
David Punch, Texas
Bryson Tiller, Missouri
Jeremiah Wilkinson, Arkansas
If you pull up a mock draft on the internet these days, chances are the top overall pick is going to be one of two players. Either Tyran Stokes, or Jordan Smith, Jr. Stokes is an electric jumbo wing at Kansas, and Smith, Jr. is a powerfully built and long armed combo guard who is suiting up for John Calipari and Arkansas.
The number of times Calipari has featured the conferences top freshman since he began coaching in the SEC has to be nearly 100%. Last year we featured Nate Ament here, but the best freshman during the season was Darius Acuff. This season, Smith will have contenders, probably most notably Jason Crowe, Jr. on Missouri. Crowe will need to play a large role for the Tigers, and put up numbers. Where putting up numbers isn't necessarily what makes Smith, Jr. the difference maker that he is.
His body type and length make him a perfect ball hawk defensively, and that's a role Smith relishes. His motor rarely stops, and he makes just as much of an impact on defense as he does offensively.
He's very much a 'little things' kind of prospect. He makes little plays all over the court that contribute to winnning. All the while he's capable of scoring, he doesn't need to dominate the ball. Arkansas might be asking him to dominate the ball more, but he won't be seeing nearly the amount of usage that Acuff did.
If Smith can consistently knock down outside jumpers, it will only make him that much more difficult to defend.
JJ Andrews, Arkansas
Toni Bryant, Missouri
Jason Crowe, Jr, Missouri
Austin Goosby, Texas
Marcus Johnson, South Carolina
Gabe Nesmith, Vanderbilt
Jaxon Richardson, Alabama
Qayden Samuels, Alabama
Marcus Spears, Jr, Texas
A quick note: The order is based on our Rock M Nations projections, which were made by picking the result of every SEC game. However, context never hurts. To that end, we include KenPom's projected finish for every team, where each was picked in the SEC media poll, and its average projected finish among 25 outlets. If you see teams with the same conference record, we applied tiebreaker rules to the forecast to sort the order.
Rock M Projection:15-3 SEC
KenPom:25-5, 14-4 SEC
Media:1st
Consensus Average:1.0
Our Take: This is a no brainer really. The best team last year returns nearly everyone, and the only substantial loss was replaced with a player who some could consider an upgrade.
This is as consensus as things have been in a while. In most other years there are those who might pick against the grain, but not in 2026. Every single outlet picked the Gators to be the best team in the SEC.
Are they a lock? No. But they're probably the closest thing to a lock in high major basketball. The front line is back and are as imposing as ever. The only question remaining is whether Todd Golden can coax some additional production out of his bench. A year ago the Gators were 330th in the country for bench minutes. While they have talent up and down the roster, and another season under their belt, the Gators need to be able to count on someone beyond their top 6. Especially if Denzel Aberdeen runs into any legal trouble.
But with Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu, the Gators should be fighting for a one seed all season long.
5th year questions: Denzel Aberdeen
Rock M Projection:14-4 SEC
KenPom:23-8, 11-7 SEC
Media:2nd
Consensus Average:3.3
Our Take: Without much coaching turnover in the SEC lately, the mantra in the preseason has been to trust past successful coaches first, then trust talent second. Texas has both.
With a top ranked portal haul to compliment a top ranked high school class, Texas has assembled a roster deep with talent. Their lone holdover from last season as a contributor is All SEC big man Matas Volkietaitis, who is one of the top returning scorers and rebounders. And one of the best in the conference at drawing fouls.
He'll be helped this year by TCU transfer David Punch and Colorado transfer Isaiah Johnson. Then there's 5-star freshmen Marcus Spears, Jr., who reclassified from the 2027 class to enroll early. And 5-star combo guard Austin Goosby.
The talent level is deep, it's just a matter of Sean Miller putting it all together.
5th year questions:none
Rock M Projection:13-5 SEC
KenPom:21-9, 10-8 SEC
Media:2nd
Consensus Average:3.7
Our Take: There's no doubt the exhibition season hasn't gone according to plan for the Vols. They lost at home to Xavier, and got blown out by Duke on the road. But make no mistake there is a lot of talent on this roster. Rick Barnes has been one of the most consistent high major coaches for the better part of the last 30 years, but he did go against type a bit with his transfer portal haul.
Gone is the grindstone defenses from recent years past, and in it's place is a host of offensive talent from the transfer portal. There's Wake Forest transfer Juke Harris, VCU transfer Terrence Hill, Jr., Notre Dame transfer Jalen Haralson, and California transfer Dai Dai Ames. All four players averaged at least 15 points per game last season.
Barnes will be tasked with connecting these pieces together to make them a cohesive unit on both ends of the floor. Will it work? We'll see, but Barnes remains a safe bet.
5th year questions: Jalen Washington
Rock M Projection:12-6 SEC
KenPom:17-15, 7-11 SEC
Media:8th
Consensus Average:8.5
Our Take: Much of this ranking is based on the Tigers bringing back Mark Mitchell, and importing 5-star guard Jason Crowe, Jr. Last year the Tigers were good in SEC play, but they lacked consistent playmaking, and shotmaking from the guard position. Crowe solves that issue as he's one of the best shot making guards in the freshmen class.
But Crowe will need to learn the point guard position, and find his offense in a more team setting. He's the all time leading scorer in California state high school history, so he had carte blanche to take shots. Dennis Gates will need to reign in the freshman's willingness to take bad shots and hone his overall playmaking skills.
Surrounding Crowe is one of the biggest, and most physically imposing rosters in the SEC. Bryson Tiller, a Kansas transfer, is a strong physical forward. Jaylen Carey comes from Tennessee and was one of the best rebounders in the conference last year. Jamier Jones is a freight train in transition and one of the premier dunkers in the country. Kennard Davis, Jr. brings an edge to the combo guard position after playing last season at BYU. Trent Pierce is a 6'10 wing who can shoot and rebound. And then there's Mitchell, one of the best returning players and a guy who draws a lot of fouls.
All this and we didn't even mention another McDonalds All American in Toni Bryant, a bouncy forward who is still figuring out how good he can be.
The ceiling for this team is as high as anyone in the SEC.
5th year questions: Mark Mitchell, CJ Gunn
Rock M Projection:11-7 SEC
KenPom:21-11, 10-8 SEC
Media:3rd
Consensus Average:4.4
Our Take: John Calipari does what he does. He's leaned in hard on high upside youth, and his roster is brimming with young talent. It starts with 5-star top 5 combo guard Jordan Smith, Jr. He'll be the hub for 5-star wings Abdou Toure and JJ Andrews. There's also high flying Finnish big man Miikka Muurinen, a 7'0 combo forward who is hoping to play his way onto draft boards. And then point guard Davion Thompson, who reclassified from the 2027 class to play this season. Thompson was a 5-star point guard in his class, but dropped down in the rankings after reclassifying.
To round out the roster, Cal added Georgia scoring guard Jeremiah Wilkins, and Furman big man Cooper Bowser. Bowser is a good athlete and one of the leading dunkers from last season.
If the Hogs figure it out early, they could be a dark horse for a Final Four with this level of talent.
5th year questions:none
Rock M Projection:10-8 SEC
KenPom:21-9, 12-6 SEC
Media:5th
Consensus Average:4.7
Our Take: Trust Nate Oats to field a high quality basketball team in Tuscaloosa. Not including his first season, Alabama has made the NCAA tournament each season, and their worst seed in that span was a 6 seed. If you're the betting type, betting on the Tide to end up a protected seed in the tournament by years end is as safe of a bet as there is in college sports these days.
With that out of the way, Alabama does not have a perfect roster. They're heavily reliant on younger talent, and their top returner, Aden Holloway, will begin the season suspended due to a drug arrest towards the end of last season.
From the portal, Oats tried to fix their size issue from last year with Kentucky transfer Brandon Garrison and Boise State stretch five Drew Fielder. He convinced Amari Allen to turn down a 1st round draft grade to come back, and Allen could be the leading scorer this season. Another name to watch out for is NC State transfer Cole Cloer, he's an elite shooter.
5th year questions:none
Rock M Projection:10-8 SEC
KenPom:24-8, 11-7 SEC
Media:6th
Consensus Average:6.2
Our Take: Mark Byington has proven to be one of the better hires in the league over the last few years. He's quickly turned Vanderbilt around into a regular NCAA Tournament team.
This season, the entire roster will revolve around potential All American guard Tyler Tanner. He was 1st team All SEC last year and averaged 19.5 points per game, and over 5 assists. To help Tanner, Byington reached into the portal and grabbed Washington State guard Ace Glass, Missouri combo guard TO Barrett, Auburn combo forward Sebastian Williams-Adams, and a couple bigs in Colorado transfer Bangot Dak and Nebraska's Berke Buyuktuncel.
Byington has fielded efficient offenses in each of his two seasons, and last year the defense saw a marked jump. This season if Vanderbilt can build on the growth of the last two years, they could be in the discussion for a protected seed.
5th year questions:none
Rock M Projection:10-8 SEC
KenPom:21-11, 9-9 SEC
Media:7th
Consensus Average:6.6
Our Take: Mark Pope is under fire. Fans are already unhappy with his offseason, and think he missed on entirely too many portal wishes.
But his build around Iowa State transfer wing Milan Momcilovic is pretty good, provided Washington transfer guard Zoom Diallo and Furman transfer Christian Wilkins up their play.
Inside, the Wildcats brought back Malachi Moreno to anchor the defense. He was good as a freshman and turned down a late 1st round draft grade to give a second year in Lexington a shot. Kentucky is one of the bigger question marks, because the talent is good, but not great. And Pope has had a season of overachieving and one of underachieving. Can the Cats surprise?
5th year questions:none
Rock M Projection:9-9 SEC
KenPom:22-10, 10-8 SEC
Media:9th
Consensus Average:10.0
Our Take: Bucky Ball year 2 is about to tip off with one big question mark: How will it integrate one of the best scoring guards, and most high usage players in the country the last three years into the style of play?
Bucky McMillan signed PJ Haggerty from Kansas State. After stops at Memphis and before that, Tulsa, Haggerty plays a ton of minutes, and scores a lot of points. He's an exciting scorer, and something the Aggies dearly missed last year.
The rest of the roster is really solid. There are some question marks at point guard, but Mackenzie Mgbako is back and healthy and hoping to make the impact he expected last year. McMillan also improved his size from last season, after they got beat up on the glass all year long. Tennessee transfer big man Cade Phillips and top 50 freshman big Josh Irving should help on the glass.
5th year questions:Rylan Griffen, Jordan Pope
Rock M Projection:9-9 SEC
KenPom:21-11, 9-9 SEC
Media:2nd
Consensus Average:10.9
Our Take: There may be no team with as wide of a range of outcomes based upon the inclusion or exclusion of 5th year players. Oklahoma recently rostered one of the top scorers from last season in Tae Davis, seeking a 5th year. With Davis, and SMU 5th year transfer BJ Edwards, plus Villanova 5th year transfer Duke Brennan, the Sooners could be really, really good.
They bring back exciting point guard Xzayvier Brown, and former 5-star wing Derrion Reid. Plus they got a medical hardship waiver for Texas A&M scoring guard Pop Isaacs.
Porter Moser has struggled to get everything going at the same time since he arrived in Norman, and while he's banking on some friendly judges to keep some important rotation guys eligible to play, this could easily be his best group.
If everyone is playing, 10th is very likely too low for the Sooners. They're a team who could be top 5 or 6.
5th year questions:Tae Davis, BJ Edwards, Duke Brennan
Rock M Projection:7-11 SEC
KenPom:15-17, 5-13 SEC
Media:12th
Consensus Average:12.0
Our Take: The headline of the preview says it all. Will Wade approached his roster building as though he were smarter than everyone. But after failing to get a few key European players cleared, he found two 5th year guards in Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark to help his second go around in Baton Rouge.
If Dent and Clark are eligible and playing, LSU should be pretty good. They did get international players Saliou Niang, Michael Ruzic, and Brice Dessert cleared, so the full rotation shouldn't be too bad with Mouhamed Dioubate (Kentucky), and Abdi Bashir (Kansas State).
But even recently RJ Luis and his lawyers were suing to play, despite Wade playing down Luis' ability to be on the roster due to SEC rules. It's been a mess of an offseason, we'll see if he can make it all makes sense and worth the headache once the ball tips.
5th year questions:Donovan Dent, Skyy Clark
Rock M Projection:7-11 SEC
KenPom:20-10, 10-8 SEC
Media:10th
Consensus Average:9.4
Our Take: The talent last year wasn't the problem, and it won't be a problem this year. Auburn bet on the inexperienced son of legendary coach Bruce Pearl to guide the hoops team through a tough schedule, and they fell short too often. This year, the roster is rebuilt around two key returners, and the gamble on the younger Pearl is still in place.
Back is Tahaad Pettiford and Kevin Overton, two of the top three scorers from last year. Pettiford is a lightning quick scoring point guard, and Overton has grown into one of the better spot up shooters in the conference and country.
To support the quality of their guards, Auburn added Owen Freeman, Bukky Oboye, and Thomas Dowd from the transfer portal. Narcisse Ngoy should be able to help on the inside as well as an international player. But the Tigers were hoping for big things from Lithuanian wing Mantas Rubštavičius, but he's back in Europe after failing to get cleared.
Auburn has the ingredients, it's up to Pearl to cook the meal.
5th year questions:Kolby King
Rock M Projection:6-12 SEC
KenPom:18-14, 7-11 SEC
Media:11th
Consensus Average:11.5
Our Take: Reportedly the Bulldogs had the least amount of spending money in the SEC this offseason, and it's shown a bit within this roster build. After going to back to back NCAA Tournaments, Mike White is hoping to land in a third straight. That would set a record for Georgia. And it's not crazy to think it can happen.
Blue Cain, Smurf Millender, and Kanon Catchings are all back for another year, and all were key cogs on last years 8 seed. But leading scorer Jeremiah Wilkinson transferred to Arkansas, and big man Somto Cyril provided the only interior threat for a team that was heavily perimeter focused.
Replacing him is Ole Miss big James Scott, and Penn State transfer guard Freddie Dilione will try to replace some of the scoring from Wilkinson's departure.
5th year questions:none
Rock M Projection:4-14 SEC
KenPom:14-18, 4-14 SEC
Media:16th
Consensus Average:16.0
Our Take: Word is South Carolina spent between $15 and $16 million in the transfer portal this past offseason, leaving many to ask the question, where did the money go?
Lamont Paris has proven critics wrong before, but just once. The Gamecocks have been picked to land in the basement, or near the basement nearly every year. And in 2024 they went to the NCAA Tournament and won 26 games. That team won 13 conference games, but in the other three seasons under Paris, the Gamecocks have only won a combined 10 SEC games. Doubt about this build is reasonable.
The offense will flow around George Mason transfer Korey Mincy, and Argentinian big man Juan Fernandez. Texas transfer Cam Heide is a good outside shooter and sound role player, and Wisconsin transfer big Aleksas Bielauskas has high upside. There is some makings of a solid roster, but in the highly competitive SEC it just doesn't look like enough.
5th year questions:none
Read the South Carolina preview
Rock M Projection:4-14 SEC
KenPom:18-12, 8-10 SEC
Media:13th
Consensus Average:13.3
Our Take: It was a tough season for Chris Beard and Ole Miss last year, his revamp of the AJ Storr experience didn't quite pan out and the Rebels ended up just 4-14 in the league. A late run in the conference tournament helped changed the vibes with hope of a turnaround this season, and it's not out of the question.
Beard is recognized as a very good basketball coach, and he led Texas Tech to the National Championship game in 2019. He's built some elite defenses, and this team has all the earmarks of a high level defensive outfit. But the problem last year wasn't defense, the Rebels weren't elite but they were still top 50. They struggled to score the ball consistently and were 14th in the SEC in offensive efficiency.
And while Beard improved the athleticism on his roster, he didn't recruit any real shot makers, other than 5th year wing Corey Stephenson. If Stephenson is eligible and able to go, he'll help the Rebels score some points. And if this team can find ways to score consistently, they should be a tournament level team again.
5th year questions: Micah Handlogten, Corey Stephenson
Rock M Projection:3-15 SEC
KenPom:15-16, 5-13 SEC
Media:15th
Consensus Average:14.6
Our Take: The bottom fell out for the Bulldogs last season. They built around Josh Hubbard, and Hubbard was terrific. The problem is nobody else was very good. They lost 14 of their last 17 games, and the rebuild didn't go quite as planned.
Hubbard is back, and he'll likely pour in a bunch of points again this season. Surrounding him is Kennesaw State transfer RJ Johnson, a big downhill driver of a guard. Seton Hall combo guard Tajuan Simpkins should help on the perimeter. If 5th year transfer Kimani Hamilton, from UNLV, is eligible he'll help to knock down some shots and defend.
But the slippage under Jans has been consistent, into last years collapse. If the Bulldogs are as porous as they were last year on defense, it's going to be a long year in Starkville.
5th year questions: Kimani Hamilton
