The Guardians currently hold the 3rd American League Wild Card spot and are just 3 games back of the Chicago White Sox for the division lead (with 3 games to play against those same White Sox). One of the biggest questions when preparing for a potential playoff berth is how to set things up so you can have your best starters throwing as many games in the series as possible.
In the case of the Wild Card Series for the Guardians, that mostly just means running Gavin Williams and Parker Messick in games 1 and 2 in some order. Today we are going to take a look at some potential ways to run the rotation for September that give some different options for a potential playoff series.
The Friday double header vs. the Tigers is set to be Logan Allen starting the day game and Foster Griffin starting the night cap. Parker Messick is the scheduled starter for Saturday, and the Big Rig is set to pitch the series finale on Sunday.
The probables for the Baltimore series are not listed, but with no off days, it's safe to assume the rotation will continue in its current order, which would go Cantillo, Bibee, Griffin. This leads us to the Thursday off day and our first opportunity to mix things up a bit.
Before we get into the full rundown, it's worth mentioning that if the Guardians are able to chase down the White Sox for the Central Division title, and assuming it's still the 2 seed, the bye makes all this a moot point since the bye gives the 1 and 2 seeds 5 off days before the start of the ALDS.
For this reason, I have highlighted the White Sox series in the table. Being 3 games back, a sweep of that series makes up that ground on its own, and the Guardians need a sweep if they want to secure the "all important" season series vs. the White Sox and hold the tiebreaker in the event it becomes relevant.
I came up with a couple iterations I think could be doable. It's worth noting there's a ton of potential tweaks that could be done, but sadly we don't have time to hash out every scenario. I've also made a point to note in parentheses how many days of rest each start would be on for each pitcher. I also wanted to go through this without ever pitching anyone on 3 days rest, but that is also an option and opens things up a great deal.
As a control, V1 simply continues in the order mentioned before, with no shifting or anything at all. It's not too bad, as it does give you The Big Rig and Messick for G1 and G2 of a potential Wild Card series. This version gives you 3 starts from each starter in the final 15 games.
Versions 2 and 5 are a pair essentially trading a Cantillo start for an extra start for The Big Rig in game 162 if needed. In V2, we're running Cantillo vs. the White Sox instead of Bibee like in V5, and V6 assumes you don't need The Big Rig for game 162, so you can put him and Messick in the Wild Card games 1 and 2.
In a similar way, Version 3 gives you the opportunity for an extra Messick start if you instead want to pitch him in game 162. If you get to game 162 and it does not matter for the standings you can use a bullpen game or LTA/Slade similar to Version 5. This allows you to move Messick to the Wild Card series. The number of rest days line up so you also have the option to flip him and The Big Rig in game 1 and 2 of the Wild Card Series, if you think it gives you a better matchup or you want an extra day of rest for The Big Rig.
Version 4 is designed to run you 3 lefties against the White Sox, and in that version you can flex Messick in game 162 if needed. This version I don't like as much because so far this season, the White Sox have been slightly better vs LHP compared to RHP.
If I had to choose one personally, I'd run with version 6, or something similar. I think it gives you the best chance to win all three games vs. the White Sox, and leaves the option for the Big Rig to come in and lock down game 162 for you if that's what you need.
This is all based on the way things stand right now, and a lot can change over the course of a week or two. It's very possible I've missed some options that could provide some unique opportunities down the stretch, so please comment below any other potential orders you think might work better or might provide some other advantage that I've not considered.
