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SMU vs. Cal: Five Key Matchups That Could Decide ACC Showdown
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- SMU vs. Cal: Five Key Matchups That Could Decide ACC Showdown
(Rich Barnes-Imagn Images)
DALLAS - SMU football has an opportunity to strengthen its position in the ACC championship race Saturday, but the 23rd-ranked Mustangs have some unfinished business with California.
SMU (5-1, 3-1 ACC) welcomes the Golden Bears (3-4, 2-2) to Gerald J. Ford Stadium for an 11 a.m. CT kickoff on The CW. Rhett Lashlee's team has won three straight, including last week's 23-13 victory over Virginia, while Cal is coming off an ugly 41-7 loss to Wake Forest.
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MORE: SMU Ready To Get California 'Revenge' Says Kevin Jennings
Five matchups could determine whether the Mustangs keep rolling.
Kevin Jennings vs. Cal's Secondary
Jennings leads an SMU passing attack averaging 329.3 yards per game, fifth nationally. The veteran quarterback has thrown for 1,839 yards and 16 touchdowns while completing 72.9 percent of his passes.
Cal allows 206.1 passing yards per game, making its secondary one of the stronger parts of an otherwise struggling defense.
Jennings must remain patient, avoid forcing throws and exploit opportunities with receivers Yamir Knight, Jalen Cooper and Yannick Smith.
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Kendrick Raphael vs. Cal's Run Defense
This could be SMU's biggest advantage.
Raphael rushed for 119 yards against Virginia, his second 100-yard performance of the season. California, meanwhile, allows 181.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 111th nationally.
With Dramekco Green sidelined by a hand injury, Raphael figures to carry an even larger workload.
A productive rushing attack would keep Cal from concentrating exclusively on Jennings.
SMU's Pass Rush vs. Cal's Quarterbacks
The Mustangs have accumulated 142 sacks since 2023, the most among FBS programs during that stretch.
California's passing offense averages 288.1 yards per game, but quarterback uncertainty creates an opportunity for SMU's defense.
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Jackson Brousseau has taken significant recent snaps after Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele's early-season struggles.
The Mustangs must pressure the quarterback without allowing receivers Chase Hendricks and Kyion Grayes to exploit openings downfield.
SMU's Defense vs. Cal's Third-Down Offense
Few defenses have been better at ending possessions than SMU.
The Mustangs have allowed opponents to convert just 22 of 83 third-down opportunities, a remarkable 26.5 percent success rate that ranks fourth nationally.
Cal averages only 90.3 rushing yards per game, creating the potential for predictable passing situations.
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If SMU wins first and second down, its pass rush could dominate third down.
SMU's Offensive Execution vs. Cal's Defensive Struggles
California ranks 105th nationally in total defense, allowing 387.6 yards per game. Opponents also convert 42.4 percent of third downs against the Golden Bears.
That's an invitation for SMU to sustain drives and finally produce a comfortable conference victory.
Lashlee recently acknowledged the Mustangs' tendency to play close games.
"We're finding ways to win games late, and we've got to keep doing that," Lashlee said.
SMU also hasn't forgotten last season's 38-35 loss at Cal, when the Bears scored the winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter.
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MORE: SMU Faces Cal With Revenge, ACC Title Hopes And Injuries At Stake
Saturday offers a chance for revenge, another ACC victory and continued momentum toward the postseason.
The Mustangs have the better overall roster and a significant statistical advantage. Now they need to translate those advantages into four quarters of consistent football.
