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Stay or Go: Should the Mets trade Kodai Senga this offseason?
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- Stay or Go: Should the Mets trade Kodai Senga this offseason?
It was a tale of two seasons for Mets right-hander Kodai Senga in 2026.
Senga's 7.34 ERA (5.82 FIP) and 1.64 WHIP tells one story, but how he performed after being moved to the bullpen -- and especially how he looked once utilized in a short relief role -- tells another.
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Still, things remain up in the air, both when it comes to what Senga's role will be in 2027 and whether he'll still be in New York when the season starts.
The day after the regular season ended, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns was unambiguous about New York's need to turn to external options to fortify a rotation that features Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, and a handful of question marks.
The Mets will also need to bolster a relief corps that excelled down the stretch even after four key members -- including Luke Weaverand Huascar Brazoban, who were both under contract beyond 2026 -- were traded at the deadline.
Senga, who will be entering his age-34 season and the final year of his contract in 2027, could be part of the equation in either relief or the rotation.
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But will the Mets trade Senga this offseason? Should they?
/ IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO TRADE SENGA
While Senga's acclimation to the bullpen went well, it's still fair to wonder if it's a long-term fit.
For one, Senga is meticulous with his routines, which were shaken up in a big way this past season with his transition away from starting. And 2026 was the first time he ever worked as a reliever in the majors. That it worked out for a few months is a plus, but there were times when Senga's stuff appeared to suffer when he pitched on back-to-back days.
Adjusting to a new role is one thing, but if Senga is going to excel as a reliever and be a true asset in that role, he's going to have to be able to pitch back-to-back (something he did three times in 2026), and three out of four days (Senga did that once in 2026).
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Senga's desire to be a starter also needs to be factored in.
"I think we'll make that determination as we get into spring training and see where we are," Stearns said after the season about Senga's role. "We know where Kodai's passion is. He's been very honest with that.
"We also understand that we need a level of production, in whatever role he's going to be in, to contribute to a winning team. And so, we'll ultimately make that role determination as we get into next year."
While health issues marred Senga's seasons in both 2024 and 2025, his body of work as a starting pitcher during his first three big league campaigns speaks for itself: In 52 starts over 285.0 innings, Senga posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while striking out 320 batters -- a rate of 10.1 per nine.
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It's quite possible another team looks at Senga's relative affordability ($15 million for 2027), stuff, and history, and decides to take a chance on him as a starter. If so, the Mets should be all ears.
Sep 6, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga (34) reacts after getting the games final out against the San Francisco Giants at Citi Field. / John Jones - Imagn Images
WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP SENGA
The idea when the Mets started using Senga in short relief (and eventually as the closer) was that he could excel in the role because of his fastball/ghost fork combination.
Mainly using those two pitches in relief allowed Senga to mix in his other pitches sparingly, and his fastball velocity often ticked up as he was pitching in short spurts.
In his final start of the season, on July 31, Senga's four-seam fastball averaged 95.7 mph.
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On Aug. 4, in his first outing after being moved full-time to a short relief role, Senga's four-seam fastball averaged 97.3 mph and topped out near 99. That average velo was down a bit during his last appearance of the season (a one-inning outing on Sept. 22), but it still averaged 96.6 mph with a max of 97.9.
Overall, Senga had a 3.78 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 16.2 innings (18 games) after being shifted to a short relief role. And that ERA is inflated a decent amount due to Senga's second-to-last outing of the season, when he gave up three runs in just one-third of an inning. He rebounded two days later to fire a perfect inning while striking out a a pair (the Sept. 22 appearance noted above).
If the Mets feel Senga's success over the last few months of 2026 can translate to a full season of success in 2027, it's easy to see a scenario where Senga stays.
Beyond Senga's ability to keep pitching in relief, though, there has to be buy-in from him.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect /
VERDICT
This is a tricky one.
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On one hand, the Mets know Senga remains hopeful of starting. But despite the team's need in the rotation, it would seem counterintuitive to return Senga to the role given how badly he struggled when starting games in 2026.
In addition, it's impossible to know if Senga can handle the rigors of a full season in relief. And it's very difficult to envision the Mets entrusting closer duties to him out of the gate next year given the variance of the potential outcomes.
On the other hand, Senga has the stuff to excel at the back end of games.
While $15 million isn't the best use of resources for someone who pitches in the seventh or eighth inning, Weaver got $11 million to do just that before he was traded.
Not to be wishy washy, but this feels like a situation where the Mets will move on if there are serious trade suitors and try Senga in short relief again if there aren't.
