Ted Hurst Analytical NFL Draft Profile

Film Profile | Analytical Profile

Prospect Information

College: Georgia State
Height/Weight: 6'4"/206Hands: 9 3/4"
Age: 22 (at the time of the 2026 season opener)

Important NFL Combine/Pro Day Numbers

40-Yard Dash: 4.42
Vertical Jump: 36.5"
Broad Jump: 11'3"
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
3-Cone: N/A

Model Overview

My Wide Receiver Rookie Model evaluates receiver prospects through the traits that historically translate best to fantasy production. The model weighs target earning, market-share production, route efficiency, role deployment, ball skills, athletic translation, age, breakout timing, teammate competition, team context and historical outcome trends.

Hurst stands out as a productive perimeter receiver with strong 2025 volume, a vertical-friendly role and one of the better size-adjusted athletic profiles in the class. His profile is built around outside usage, downfield opportunity and physical receiving traits rather than slot-driven volume.

The model views Hurst as a boundary receiver whose fantasy appeal comes from outside alignment, target earning and the ability to turn a big-frame athletic profile into useful NFL target value.

Model Derived Athletic Scores

BMI: 25.1
Speed Score: 107.9
Burst Score: 47.8
Agility Score: 0.13
Composite Athleticism Score: 0.58
Historical Athleticism Percentile: 96th

Understanding the Athleticism Score

The Composite Athleticism Score blends size-adjusted speed, burst, agility and model-derived translation when full testing is unavailable. The percentile compares Hurst to historical wide receiver prospects in the database.

Hurst projects as an elite athlete in this model. At his size, the speed and burst profile are major positives and give him one of the better raw outside-athlete cases in the class.

Receiving Efficiency Metrics

Yards per Route Run: 2.42
Yards per Target: 8.0
Touchdowns per Target: 4.8%
First Downs per Route: 0.119
Targets per Route: 0.303

Hurst's 2025 efficiency profile is strongest in the target-earning and route-level production areas. He consistently earned the football and paired that with strong enough route efficiency to stay in the mix as one of the more interesting outside bets in the class.

Usage and Alignment

Average Depth of Target: 12.6
Catch Rate: 56.8%
Contested Catch Rate: 59.3%
Contested Target Rate: 21.6%
Drop Rate: 9.0%
Yards After Catch per Reception: 5.3
Slot Rate: 16.3%
Wide Rate: 83.7%

Hurst's deployment was clearly perimeter-driven. He lined up overwhelmingly out wide, worked down the field and saw a meaningful amount of contested usage. That role fits both his frame and the type of fantasy path the model sees for him.

Production Snapshot

2025
Games: 12
Targets: 125
Receptions: 71
Receiving Yards: 999
Receiving Touchdowns: 6
Routes Run: 412
Yards per Game: 83.3
Touchdowns per Game: 0.50

Target Share: 28.3%
Reception Share: 24.8%
Yard Share: 32.8%
TD Share: 27.3%
Dominator Rating: 30.0%
Yards per Team Pass Attempt: 2.27

Hurst's 2025 season gives him a strong production base. He pushed toward 1,000 yards, handled major volume and posted meaningful all-team market-share numbers while working in a true outside role. That combination is a major reason the model keeps him firmly inside the draftable fantasy conversation.

Positive Indicators

Strong target earning

Hurst's 2025 target total and targets per route run both point to a receiver who consistently earned opportunity.

Elite size-adjusted athleticism

The model sees Hurst as one of the better raw athletes in the class for a boundary receiver, which supports his outside projection.

Perimeter-friendly role

His wide alignment rate and downfield usage give him a clean NFL pathway as an outside receiver.

Areas of Concern

Hands consistency

The drop rate is one of the bigger warning signs in the profile and adds volatility to the projection.

Catch efficiency is uneven

Hurst earned volume, but the catch rate is lower than the cleaner top-tier receivers in the class.

Perimeter dependency

Outside receivers often need strong quarterback play and a stable role fit to fully unlock fantasy value.

Historical Model Comps

Kenny Golladay
Chris Godwin
Tre'Quan Smith
Amara Darboh
Bryan Edwards

This comp cluster reflects bigger perimeter receivers whose fantasy value depends on outside-role translation, target earning and whether physical traits become stable NFL opportunity.

Historical Fantasy Tier Outcomes

WR1 (Top 12): 24.8%
WR2 (13—24): 18.5%
WR3 (25—36): 12.8%
WR4 (37—48): 2.8%
Outside WR4 / Bust: 59.0%

These outcomes are exclusive and sum to 100%. Hurst's distribution points to real upside, but it also reflects a wide range of outcomes that is common for perimeter receivers who rely on role translation and hands consistency.

Early Career Fantasy Outlook

Year 1: WR40—WR55Year 2—3: WR24—WR40

Hurst projects as an early rotational outside contributor with the upside to become a useful fantasy option if his NFL team gives him stable perimeter work and his target-earning profile carries over.

Dynasty Translation

Ted Hurst profiles as an intriguing dynasty swing for managers who value size, athleticism and outside-role upside.

He brings strong 2025 volume, a clear perimeter role and one of the better size-adjusted athletic profiles in the class. That gives him a believable path to NFL usability and fantasy relevance if the landing spot is favorable.

The profile still carries volatility because of the hands and catch-efficiency concerns, but Hurst has enough athletic support and production to matter as an upside bet in deeper rookie drafts.

This article originally appeared on The Huddle: Ted Hurst Profile: Fantasy Football Model Comps and NFL Draft Fit