Texans should beat Steelers in AFC Wild Card, but T.J. Watt can ruin playoff run

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Texans should beat Steelers in AFC Wild Card, but T.J. Watt can ruin playoff run

Jaren Kawada, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Fri, Jan 9, 2026 ·

4 min read

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Texans should beat Steelers in AFC Wild Card, but T.J. Watt can ruin playoff run appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

The Houston Texans enter the 2025-2026 NFL Playoffs on a league-best nine-game win streak, making them favored to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round despite being the lower-seeded team. While Houston is poised for its best postseason run in years, it potentially finds itself in a nightmare matchup against a T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith -led pass rush.

On paper, the Texans have been one of the best pass-blocking teams in the league. Their 5.06 percent sack rate is eighth in the league, and C.J. Stroud has only been sacked once in his last four games.

While the Texans' offensive line is brimming with confidence, it will have its hands full with the Steelers, who ranked sixth with 48 sacks in the regular season. Pittsburgh's pass-rush has only gotten stronger with Watt returning from a three-game absence in Week 18.

The Texans' season-long numbers come with them only facing three top-10 pass-rushing teams all season; they allowed a total of 10 sacks in those games. Houston still only gave Stroud 3.41 seconds to throw in the pocket, ranking 29th among starting quarterbacks.

Houston's offense enters the playoffs clicking on all cylinders, while the Steelers' defense has underwhelmed all year. The matchup seems like a mismatch on paper, but it could quickly spiral out of control for a Texans team that has not been tested much in the second half of the regular season.

Steelers' pass-rush will trouble C.J. Stroud

As hot as the Texans have been late in the year, it has been their defense carrying the load. Houston's offense has been limited to a few explosive plays from Nico Collins at a time, which is all it has needed down the stretch.

While the Texans were tested against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17, they have not faced an elite pass-rushing unit since playing the Denver Broncos at home in Week 9. The Broncos, who lead the NFL with 68 sacks on the year, got to Stroud and backup Davis Mills a combined four times in their 18-15 victory.

The constant pressure forced Stroud to take off for a pair of scrambles. His second carry of the game resulted in a concussion that forced him out of the contest and miss the next three games.

The Steelers' pass-rushers are arguably better than those of the Broncos at full strength, with three elite edge-rushers on the roster.

T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig all rank among the top-30 edge-rushers in the NFL. They have combined for 24 of the Steelers' 48 sacks in 2025.

While Watt has taken a slight step back in year nine — his seven sacks are just the second time he failed to reach double digits in the last eight years — Herbig has proven himself as an elite edge defender in his own right. The 24-year-old has hidden in the shadows of Watt and Highsmith throughout his career, but improved his sack numbers for the third consecutive year.

Herbig's development has allowed Steelers defensive coordinator Teryl Austin to rotate the three at will. Houston has not faced a team as deep on the outside as Pittsburgh is, which will have tackles Trent Brown and Aireontae Ersery in a blender all night.

Texans have to prevent history from repeating itself

Recent history favors the Texans, but all-time NFL records have Houston's number. Not only have the Texans never won a playoff game on the road, but their offensive line has historically been the team's undoing in the postseason.

After Houston got past the Chargers in the 2025 Wild Card round, Stroud was practically tortured for three hours in the Texans' 23-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs racked up eight sacks in the win, setting a clear standard for the team to improve on in the offseason.

The Texans did not improve their offensive line in the offseason, instead banking on their young players to develop. The gamble appeared to fail after a 0-3 start, but Houston rounded into form in the second half of the season.

Regardless, the eight-sack nightmare still sticks in the minds of four of the five starting offensive linemen. Rookie Aireontae Ersery is the only new member of the group after replacing former five-time Pro Bowler Laremy Tunsil, whom the team traded to the Washington Commanders in the offseason.

It would only take a couple of early pressures for Watt, Highsmith and Herbig to set the tone early and give their home crowd something to cheer for. At that point, PTSD might set in for Stroud, whose confidence can get tested once he begins to feel pressure.

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