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Can Texas Tech beat Oregon in Orange Bowl? 5 things Red Raiders need to do
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- Can Texas Tech beat Oregon in Orange Bowl? 5 things Red Raiders need to do
The Orange Bowl is still over a week away, but it's time to take a first look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup pitting the Texas Tech Red Raiders against the Oregon Ducks .
Joey McGuire and the No. 4 Red Raiders (12-1) have been off for a few weeks after winning the program's first Big 12 Conference championship, downing BYU 34-7 on Dec. 7. Dan Lanning and the No. 5 Ducks (12-1) had little trouble moving past No. 12 James Madison in their first-round matchup.
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Oregon is a darling of the CFP, many seeing the Ducks as a favorite to win the national championship. So what must the Red Raiders do to spoil things for Oregon and move to the national semifinals?
How Texas Tech vs Oregon match up for Orange Bowl
Let's walk through the five most crucial factors to the Red Raiders leaving Miami with a win and a berth in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
1. Texas Tech QB Behren Morton must finish the game
Behren Morton's health has been a season-long storyline thanks to his nagging leg injury suffered in the season opener. McGuire says Morton looks as healthy as he's been all season, and the Red Raiders will need to keep him that way throughout the Orange Bowl. Morton (2,643 yards, 22 TDs, 4 INTs) has only played the entirety of four games this year through a combination of injury and Texas Tech blowing people out.
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2. Texas Tech defense must contain Oregon's run game
The biggest strength of this elite Texas Tech defense is stopping the run, leading the nation with 68.5 yards allowed per game on the ground. Oregon has a trio of running backs that can do damage with Noah Whittington (820 yards, 6 TDs), Jordon Davison (632 yards, 13 TDs) and Dierre Hill Jr. (571 yards, 5 TDs). Making Oregon one-dimensional could go a long way.
3. Oregon's passing game is best Texas Tech will have seen
The Red Raiders have excelled at stopping the run, but have not really been challenged in the secondary much this season beyond the Arizona State game (the one contest the Red Raiders lost). Oregon will be a different animal, featuring projected No. 1 2026 NFL Draft pick Dante Moore (3,046 yards, 28 TDs, 8 INTs) at quarterback. Moore is also getting more of his receiving options back late in the season. How does Texas Tech handle the vertical threat?
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4. Texas Tech must cash in on touchdowns in the red zone
The elephant in the room for Texas Tech is despite having blowout wins everywhere, most of those games could've been even more lopsided had the Red Raiders scored more touchdowns in the red zone instead of settling for field goals. That will have to be flipped against the Ducks, who have a much more comparable roster to Tech than anybody else the Red Raiders have played this season.
5. Texas Tech should embrace the underdog role
It's been a minute since Texas Tech wasn't the odds-on favorite to win a game it's playing in, but the Ducks have the early Vegas odds and most national pundits seeing Oregon as the team not to let get hot in the CFP. While the Red Raiders have been a great story this season, most expect the ride to end in Miami. Playing with a chip on your shoulder never hurt anybody.
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What Texas Tech football coaches, players have said about Oregon
Texas Tech had coach Joey McGuire on how the Red Raiders will have to deal with Oregon quarterback Dante Moore:
"This quarterback's special. If he decides to come out, he's probably the number one quarterback taken in the draft, him or the Indiana kid, but he's really good, so we've got to put some pressure on him and we've got to do a good job of stopping the run to get to do that."
Texas Tech vs Oregon history
Texas Tech and Oregon have only squared off three times before, each of the games going the way of the Ducks. The first two came in 1991 and 1992, the most recent matchup coming in Lubbock during the 2023 season. Oregon won that game 38-30. Texas Tech is scheduled to make a return trip to Eugene in 2033.
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When does Texas Tech play next?
The College Football Playoff quarterfinals are scheduled for Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. The Red Raiders and Ducks play in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 1 from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.
College Football Playoff schedule 2025-26
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Quarterfinals: Dec. 31 and Jan. 1
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Semifinals: Jan. 8 and 9
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National championship: Jan. 19
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Texas Tech vs Oregon predictions, Orange Bowl scouting report for CFP
