Despite showing flashes of potential, Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Lukas Van Ness has failed to break out over his first three seasons in the NFL. There's a lot on the line for the former first-round pick, who must take a giant leap forward, as the Packers' hopes this year may depend on it.
All-Pro Micah Parsons will miss the at least the first four weeks of the season after sustaining an ACL tear last year, meaning Van Ness will be counted on to pick up the slack. Meanwhile, with the likes of Rashan Gary and Kingsley Enagbare moving on, the 25-year-old will have even more pressure on his shoulders.
On paper, Van Ness is far from the most important player on the Green Bay roster. However, Ben Solak of ESPN believes that as he goes, the Packers will go, naming him the team's " X factor ."
Solak points out that, without Parsons for the first four weeks of the season or more, Van Ness "must give Green Bay a three-down presence."
"He has all the physical tools of a highly disruptive player — strong, quick and long with inside/out versatility — but the pieces have yet to come together," Solak wrote.
Production-wise, Solak's expectations don't seem realistic, with Van Ness posting only 1.5 sacks, 19 tackles (three for loss) and seven QB hits while playing 45 percent of the Packers' defensive snaps over nine games. However, the underlying numbers tell a different story.
Van Ness was serviceable in 2025, posting a 75.5 Pro Football Focus grade, which ranked him 27th out of 115 edge rushers. Meanwhile, he was 20th (72.1) in run defense grade and 46th (68.5) in pass rush grade among edge rushers. Also, in limited time, he had a career-high 23 total pressures despite playing in all 17 games the previous two seasons.
Seemingly, all that's missing for Van Ness is production on the stat sheet. However, even considering Parsons' early-season absence, there's little depth along the Packers' defensive line, so it's put-up-or-shut-up time for Van Ness, according to Solak.
"No matter how the secondary plays or what the scheme is, opposing offenses will throw chips and double-teams at Parsons until someone else on Green Bay's front punishes them for it," Solak wrote. "Van Ness is not just the first candidate to do that — he might be the only realistic one."
Earlier this year, Green Bay picked up Van Ness' fifth-year option, which will pay him $13.8 million in 2027, according to Spotrac . An expensive gamble, especially if the former Iowa standout can't make the leap expected this season.
The worst-case scenario for the Packers is that they move on after next season, creating a hole at edge rusher. Meanwhile, for Van Ness, a down year in 2026 could be devastating for his chances of staying in Green Bay long-term or cashing in once he hits the free-agent market in 2028.
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Sep 4, 2026, where it first appeared in the NFL section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
