For the first time in a while, Wisconsin football has real momentum .
The Badgers, fresh off a massive upset, come-from-behind win over No. 13 Penn State on the road, have a golden opportunity to roll into a bye week 4-1 with a 2-0 mark in conference play.
In the way stands the Michigan State Spartans, a program enduring a rebuilding season under new head coach Pat Fitzgerald. Still, oddsmakers and analytics folks alike expect this game to be within a couple possessions.
As the Badgers gear up for their most anticipated home game in some time, here's three bold predictions for the showdown with the Spartans:
Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Colton Joseph. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
I understand why the Badgers are seemingly narrow 9.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook despite their huge win at Penn State and despite the fact that Michigan State just got throttled by Nebraska at home.
Wisconsin's offense still leaves a lot to be desired, mainly in terms of establishing the run and keeping the ball out of harm's way. Quarterback Colton Joseph's seven turnover-worthy plays are tied for third-most nationally. If the Badgers gift Michigan State some points, as they did against Penn State, this game could certainly be a lot closer than fans expect and hope.
Still, I just see this as a bad matchup for the Spartans. Michigan State's offensive success has relied on tailback Cam Edwards, who's now out for the year. Wisconsin's defense, meanwhile, has been elite at stopping the run. On the other side of the ball, the Badgers offense, as mentioned, still has plenty of growing to do. But the Spartans' defense has been mediocre if not straight up bad.
I also see Joseph regressing to the mean a little in terms of his turnovers. That is to say, I don't expect him to throw three increasingly ugly interceptions against the Spartans. One or maybe even two might not matter too much, but three giveaways will keep any opponent in the game.
Wisconsin Badgers running back Darrion Dupree. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
I can easily see Dupree racking up 150 all-purpose yards - not necessarily rushing yards - Saturday against the Spartans for several reasons.
First of all, the tailback was stellar against Penn State after he dropped a crucial 3rd-and-12 pass. He was Wisconsin's leading rusher with six carries for 52 yards and its second-leading receiver with four catches for 44 yards. Dupree's shiftiness, strength and contact balance were on full display, and he's really come into his own as a ball-carrier in his junior year.
"For him to step up when Abu went down, for him to have 48 reps, not just the amount of carries and catches that he had but the way he played down the stretch, I know we celebrate it," head coach Luke Fickell said this week . "I couldn't be more happy and proud for a guy who hasn't had everything as he envisioned...He continues to raise his game and we're gonna need him."
With Abu Sama's status in question, I expect Dupree to get a healthy workload regardless of the former's availability. Michigan State is going to have a hard time accounting for him, especially if its top linebacker Jordan Hall, who has 21 total tackles thus far but is currently doubtful for Saturday, doesn't play. Who's stopping Dupree once he gets to the second level, and perhaps more importantly, who's covering him out of the backfield?
Wisconsin Badgers linebacker Sebastian Cheeks. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Cheeks' 18 quarterback pressures this season have him tied for fourth in the nation in that category. However, only one of the players above him (Georgia State's Xavier Esquillion) has done so on fewer pass-rushing snaps; his pressure rate of 23% is tied for tops in the country.
Cheeks has just 2.5 sacks this season despite his relentless pressure, but I expect him to notch a few more sacks against the Spartans come Saturday.
Michigan State quarterback Alessio Miliojevic has been pressured on 42 times across 123 drop-backs, a pressure rate of 34%. More than a third of the time he drops back to pass, he's had to navigate pressure. Notre Dame is responsible for the most with 14 pressures against Miliojevic, but even Toledo notched 11; the Spartans have had a difficult time protecing the gunslinger.
What's more, the two main culprits allowing pressure up front for Michigan State are its two starting offensive tackles, Rakeem Johnson and Ben Murawski with seven and six, respectively. Wherever Cheeks lines up, he should have a favorable matchup.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/wisconsin as Three Bold Predictions for the Badgers' Homecoming Clash with Michigan State .
