Three Perspectives on Eduardo Rodriguez

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<a class= — Eduardo Rodriguez pitching in the rain. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Makakilo

Tue, April 28, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC ·

3 min read

Inspiration.

My preseason expectation was that the Diamondbacks rotation would be near-average rotation. In that context, my optimistic hope was that Eduardo Rodriguez would significantly contribute toward the Diamondbacks reaching the playoffs.

My player review was specific about my optimistic hopes:

“The biggest point to carry with you is that if he can again reach 50% quality starts and allows 5-runs-or-more in less than 25% of his games, he will help the Diamondbacks reach the playoffs….” — Makakilo, December 2025

Three Perspectives.

There are three ways to look at his early season performance.

Contributor to reaching playoffs. It is what it is. His performance contributes toward the Diamondbacks reaching the playoffs. In his first five starts, his performance is near my preseason optimistic hope. He exceeded one criteria and almost met the other criteria.

Criteria: Less than 25% games with 5 or more earned runs. Performance: Zero games, which exceeded the criteria. The other Diamondbacks with zeros are Gallen and Soroka .

Criteria: 50% Quality Starts. Performance: 40% Quality Starts. Plus bonus points for his start that allowed zero runs in 5 innings. He has two quality starts, which leads the rotation. Gallen, Soroka, and Pfaadt have one quality start.

The following list shows earned runs and innings pitched for his first five starts.

Game 1. Zero earned runs in 5 innings against the Dodgers .
Game 2. Zero earned runs in 7 innings against the Braves (Quality Start).
Game 3. One earned run in 6 innings against the Mets (Quality Start).
Game 4. Four earned runs in 5 innings against the Orioles.
Game 5. Four earned runs in 5 innings against the White Sox .

Sustainable Performance.

In the finals of the World Baseball Classic, playing for team Venezuela, he pitched 4.1 scoreless innings against team USA. He struck out 4 batters, with only one hit and one walk allowed. That was enough for Venzuela to win the event.

Regular season statistics (through 21 April) suggest sustainable performance.

6.75 innings pitched per game.
9.5 degree average launch angle was career best (batters don’t hit his pitches in the air).
5.5% barrels was a career best (except 2015) (batters don’t often hit his pitches with home-run power).
Strikeouts per 9 innings was a career worst (batters will strikeout more as the season progresses)

Regression.

Vlad Sedler wrote that this season he is the second luckiest starting pitcher in the Majors.

“Over the years, I have utilized a simple formula (ERA minus SIERA) to identify pitchers who could be deemed “lucky”, with negative regression on the horizon, and vice versa — “unlucky” with a higher likelihood of positive regression. To further qualify the luck or lack thereof, I review BABIP and LOB% (left-on-base rate, or strand rate).” — Vlad Sedler, April 2026

Additional statistics (through 21 April) that suggest that regression is possible.

1.96 ERA was better than 4.22 FIP and 4.17 xERA.
.239 BABIP was career low (best).
7.4 hits per 9 innings was a career best.

Summary.

After five games, three perspectives tell the story of Eduardo Rodruguez’s early season success.

Contributor to reaching playoffs. His performance contributes toward the Diamondbacks reaching the playoffs. In his first five starts, his performance is near my preseason optimistic hope. He exceeded one criteria and almost met the other criteria. He compared favorably to other pitchers in the Diamondbacks rotation.

Sustainable Performance.Two reasons to think his performance is sustainable are his performance in the World Baseball Classic and statistics that show he prevents batters from hitting in the air with power.

Regression.Vlad Sedler wrote that this season he is the second luckiest starting pitcher in the Majors. Career low BABIP suggests regression. His ERA was better than SIERA, FIP, and xERA, which suggests regression.