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Three Reasons Why Iowa Football Will Beat Wisconsin - And Three Reasons It Won't
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- Three Reasons Why Iowa Football Will Beat Wisconsin - And Three Reasons It Won't
(USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect)
Iowa RT Jack Dotzler previews the Wisconsin game.
It's Thursday, which means there's only two more days until Iowa football takes the field for a very important home game against No. 25 Wisconsin (5-1, 3-1).
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The Hawkeyes (5-2, 2-2) saw their College Football Playoff hopes almost disintegrate after last weekend's loss to Minnesota, but any chance at making a late-season push to get back in contention begins at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday morning (11 a.m., FOX).
Defeating a resurgent Badger team won't be easy, but here are three reasons why Iowa will beat Wisconsin - and three reasons it won't.
Why Iowa Will Win
The run game is above-average:Asking Iowa's run game to explode to Washington levels (268 yards that day) is probably an unfair ask because Wisconsin is a much better defense than Washington and will be prepared to load the box and make Iowa throw the ball, but here's the thing: the Hawkeyes don't need to be dominate on the ground to win this game. Even an above-average performance could be enough to make the Badgers back off and allow Iowa more room to throw the football. They'll have to be successful without lead back Kamari Moulton, though, so we'll see that the Hawkeyes can do on the ground.
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Tony Diaz gets more catches:Quarterback Hank Brown obviously needs to play better after a disappointing showing at Minnesota, and one of the ways he can do that is getting the ball to star wideout Tony Diaz. Diaz saw around 10 targets per game earlier in the year, but that volume has slowly dwindled over the last few weeks and resulted in just four targets against Minnesota. If you go back and watch the all-22 from Iowa's conference games, you'll often find a wide-open Diaz. When he does get the ball, Diaz has been electric, going for 57 yards in his lone catch last week. Whether it's a screen or a quick slant, Iowa just needs to find any way to give Diaz a touch because of his ability to make plays in the open field.
The Hawkeyes win the turnover battle:Iowa lost the turnover battle 4-1 in Minnesota last weekend, which ultimately proved to be the primary reason for its loss. The Hawkeye coaching staff knows that needs to change against Wisconsin. Considering Saturday's contest will probably be a close one, it probably goes without saying that Iowa can't afford a repeat performance.
Why Iowa Will Lose
Wisconsin gets its ground game going:Iowa will be in good shape if it can shut down Wisconsin's rushing attack and make the Badgers beat it through the air, but what if Wisconsin ignites the ground game yet again? Quarterback Colton Joseph is the Badgers' leading rusher at 295 yards, but you also have to watch out for Iowa State transfer Abu Sama III as well. He's averaged 5.8 yards per carry on 51 carries this year, and should he run the ball well at Kinnick Stadium, Wisconsin will be tough to beat.
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Iowa can't throw the ball again:Iowa didn't have much success in the passing game last weekend, and if it that happens again on Saturday, it's hard to see it finding a way to win this game. Wisconsin is going to stack the box, so Brown is going to have to take advantage of some one-on-one opportunities in man coverage to move the ball. It's way easier said than done, though.
Penalties pile up:The Hawkeyes now have more penalties this year (43), than all of last season (39). Part of the problem can be chalked up to a young roster, but the penalties seem like more of an issue than a growing pain at this point in the season. Some penalties (pass interference, holding) are just part of the game, but Iowa can't afford to let the procedural penalty issues (false start, offsides, illegal formation) happen on Saturday.
