What is the recipe to an upset ?
Whatever it is, the Sun Devils will be searching for it on Saturday.
While ranked upsets usually ruin a season for the favorite, a win in Lubbock over No. 10 Texas Tech could also save the year for Arizona State, looking to avoid falling to 3-3.
It has been a steady climb back to form after a 55-19 loss to Baylor, but now another litmus test is here. What does Arizona State need to do on Saturday to stun the Red Raiders?
It is hard to imagine Texas Tech putting together a clean game and still losing. That is why the Sun Devil defense will need to cause miscues.
In three and a half seasons, Kenny Dillingham has six ranked wins. What do those six wins all have in common? ASU won the turnover battle.
Turnover Margins
2024:
vs. No. 16 Utah: +2
vs. No. 16 Kansas State: +2
vs. No. 14 BYU: +1
vs. No. 16 Iowa State (Big 12 Championship): +3
2025:
vs. No. 24 TCU: +2
vs. No. 7 Texas Tech: +1
In Dillingham's first trip to Lubbock, back in 2024, ASU lost the turnover battle -1, falling to the Red Raiders 30-22.
Fast forward to this year, and it has been a simple formula. If ASU wins the turnover battle, they win. If they lose the turnover battle, they lose.
Their biggest win of the season was a direct result of a three-turnover day, coming against Kansas in London. They will need to channel some of that British energy stateside this weekend.
If you asked anyone if ASU currently has any "game changers", their first answer would likely be Reed Harris.
Harris, the standout senior transfer from Boston College, has been the backbone of ASU's offensive production. The Biletnikoff Watch List member hauled in eight catches for 81 yards and two touchdowns in the win against Hawaii.
Against Texas A&M, Harris showed his ability to take over a game, keeping ASU's upset bid alive with nine catches for 189 yards and two scores.
The good news for Harris and the rest of the Sun Devil receivers is that the Red Raiders currently sit at #132 in passing yards allowed in college football. 32 spots below ASU (#95) and under teams such as New Mexico State, UTEP and Hawaii.
Former ASU wideout and current New Orleans Saints wideout Jordyn Tyson followed this blueprint with 10 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown in Arizona State's 2025 upset over a ranked Texas Tech team. Can Harris do the same?
On the flip side, Texas Tech is No. 16 in rushing yards allowed per game, averaging less than 100 yards per matchup.
ASU's run game found its footing, for seemingly the first time all year, last week against Hawaii . Cardae Mack's 154-yard, two-touchdown night highlighted the 30-12 victory.
The talented freshman likely won't find similar success in Lubbock, but if the Sun Devils can run the ball at least somewhat effectively to help the passing game, it could pay dividends.
This also brings up the subject of the offensive line. A unit that has been spotty but is receiving reinforcements, with Wade Helton and Tana Alo-Tupuola being available.
Turnovers have been the downfall of each Arizona State loss, including four giveaways at Texas A&M and three vs. Baylor.
On a day when the passing game will be of most importance, ASU QB Cutter Boley needs to protect the football.
Now, ASU's turnover woes are not Boley's fault. His three interceptions (with only one of them truly being his fault) make up less than half of Arizona State's eight turnovers for the season.
However, this is a quarterback who threw 12 interceptions last season. His numbers with a clean pocket are satisfactory, but when the pressure comes, those numbers drop rapidly.
In Wednesday's practice, Boley was reportedly picked off by ASU LB Owen Long on a ball that was tipped at the line, before being sacked a play later. Also in the session, Boley found Omarion Miller and Raiden Vines-Bright on two big-time deep throws.
Long story short: this is NOTthe game for Boley's turnover-past to show itself, like a haunting ghost of 2025 SEC Football, for the first time in 2026.
It has been a weird season for ASU's special teams unit.
Punter Nick McLarty and kicker Carson Smith have impressed, especially considering ASU's past need for more from the punter/kicker position. (Remember when Kenny Dillingham called for open kicking tryouts in 2024?)
But this doesn't mean everything has been sunshine and rainbows in special teams land. ASU allowed a blocked punt against Hawaii in the first half, giving the Rainbow Warriors superb field position.
Against Kansas, they allowed a punt-return touchdown. Against Texas A&M, they muffed a punt, giving the Aggies a short field.
If any miscues like these happen in Lubbock, it is hard to see ASU coming out with a win.
Every underdog story has the unexpected hero. Javan Robinson's game-sealing interception against BYU in 2024, Jesus Gomez's perfect 4/4 field goal day against Texas Tech in 2025, or even Cam Skattebo's trick-play passing touchdown against UCLA in 2023.
Who will be the hero that steps up in Lubbock?
Boley has been reported to be finding his connection with Raiden Vines-Bright, who is waiting for his biggest performance in maroon and gold. Or could it be A.J. Ia, the tight end who is now the main option due to injury ?
Or will it come from the defensive side of the ball? LB Owen Long saved the day in London , causing three turnovers. Can he do it again? Or who could join him?
Arizona State will try to find these answers in an upset effort vs. No. 10 Texas Tech, this Saturday at 2:30 p.m. EST.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/arizonastate as Three Ways Arizona State Can Upset No. 10 Texas Tech, Three Ways Arizona State Loses .
