Thunder vs. Spurs 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals Game 4 prediction, odds, pick

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Thunder vs. Spurs 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals Game 4 prediction, odds, pick

Dominik Zawartko, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Sun, May 24, 2026 ·

5 min read

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We’re back to continue our predictions and picks for the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals, slated for this upcoming crucial Game 4 showdown. The defending champions Oklahoma City Thunder will visit the San Antonio Spurs , OKC leading the series 2-1. Check our NBA Playoffs odds series for the Thunder-Spurs prediction and pick.

With the series tied 1-1, the Oklahoma City Thunder overcame an injury to key player Jalen Williams and took down the Spurs 123-108 in Game 3. OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and San Antonio ’s Victor Wembanyama both led their teams with 26 points a piece, but it was the Thunder’s 76 bench points to San Antonio’s 23 points that made all the difference in this one.

With Oklahoma City matching San Antonio and taking a win on the road, it will now be up to the Spurs to defend home court and avoid falling into a 3-1 hole against the best team in the NBA.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4 Odds

Oklahoma City Thunder: +2.5 (-110)

San Antonio Spurs: -2.5 (-110)

Over: 218.5 (-110)

Under: 218.5 (-110)

Thunder vs. Spurs Key Injuries

Oklahoma City:Jalen Williams (hamstring – Questionable) / Ajay Mitchell (calf – OUT) / Thomas Sorber (knee – OUT)

San Antonio:None to report.

Thunder vs. Spurs Betting Trends

The San Antonio Spurs are 36-11 at home this season. The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 35-10 on the road.
The Spurs are 58-18 as betting favorites. The Thunder are 3-3 as underdogs.
The Spurs are 56-41 ATS overall, 27-20 ATS at home. The Thunder are 46-47 ATS overall, 23-22 ATS on the road.
The Spurs are 6-4 outright, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Thunder. OKC is 2-1 outright, 2-1 ATS in this series.
The Thunder are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
The Spurs are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games.
The total has gone OVER in Oklahoma City’s last six consecutive games.
The total has gone OVER in San Antonio’s last eight games.

Keys to Thunder vs. Spurs Matchup

The first two games of this series were both emphatic swings from both teams, landing on each side as San Antonio stole a road win in the opening game of this series. OKC won Game 3 to flip the momentum, so this Game 4 will be the most crucial game of San Antonio’s season thus far. Given their tired legs and inability to win as favorites during Game 3, it’s surprising to see the Spurs favored in this must-win game.

It was Thunder’s Jared McCain (26 pts), Jaylin Williams (18 pts), and Alex Caruso (15 pts) who made all the difference for their team in Game 3, hitting big shots in crucial junctures of the game and providing defensive stops. San Antonio was never really able to swing the momentum in their favor thanks to Williams’ 5-6 night from three in relief of Jalen Williams. With the aforementioned Williams on the injury report, it’ll be interesting to see if he’s able to make the start and how their offense changes with him back in the lineup.

With this being a must-win game, Victor Wembanyama is expected to play with an added ferocity and hunger to rebound the ball and block shots. He already has nine total blocks throughout this series and doesn’t seem phased at all by the defensive matchup against Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein . He’s made a concerted effort to hit from three with a 5-12 mark over the last two games, but expect Wembanyama to get back to the paint and earn his keep at the free throw line.

Aside from the obvious, De’Aaron Fox , Stephon Castle , and Devin Vassell will need to ramp up their defensive efforts against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander once again. They managed to hold him to 24 points on 7-23 shooting in Game 1, so the key will be stopping OKC’s MVP talent and hoping that his supporting cast won’t erupt for another huge total off the bench. Otherwise, there isn’t much the Spurs can do when OKC is shooting 48% FG and 45% 3-PT.

Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

This game will have to be a “put up or shut up” game for the San Antonio Spurs. They clearly have the recipe for beating Oklahoma City, but it’s going to take 48 full minutes of hard-pressed, highly motivated defense to beat them in the playoffs. The Thunder clearly hit another gear when in the playoffs and their depth shows most during these key games during a series.

Still, I expect Victor Wembanyama to motivate his team as we should see much more improved performances out of Castle and Fox in this one. Devin Vassell has been playing with a high motor and great effort, so expect that to carry over for Castle and Fox as they try to shut down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

For our final prediction, we’re going to roll with the San Antonio Spurs to cover the spread and even this series at home.

Final Thunder-Spurs Game 4 Prediction & Pick: San Antonio Spurs -2.5 (-110); OVER 218.5 (-110)

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