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Titans vs Bengals Prediction, Picks, NFL Week 8 Odds
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- Titans vs Bengals Prediction, Picks, NFL Week 8 Odds
Reuters/Imagn. Pictured: Cam Ward, Joe Burrow.
The Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) will host the Tennessee Titans (1-6) in Week 8 of the NFL season this afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Bengals are 13.5-point favorites over the Titans on the spread, with the total set at over/under 45.5 points. Cincinnati is a -950 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Tennessee is a +640 underdog to pull off the upset.
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Let's get into my Titans vs Bengals predictionsand NFL picks for Sunday, November 1.
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Titans vs Bengals pick: Bengals -13.5 (-110)
My Bengals vs. Titans best bet is Cincinnati to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Titans vs Bengals NFL Odds
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Titans vs Bengals spread: Titans +13.5 (-110), Titans -13.5 (-110)
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Titans vs Bengals total: over/under 45.5 (-118o / 104u)
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Titans vs Bengals moneyline: Titans +640, Bengals -950
Titans vs Bengals Preview for NFL Week 8
Tennessee Titans Preview: Life Without Jeffery Simmons
Fading the Titans has been a profitable endeavor this year, but they have covered the number in each of their last two road games. I provided the breakdown for their victory on the road in Indianapolis and their road cover as 11-point underdogs in Baltimore back in Week 4.
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I will not be going back to the well for a third time in this spot against the Bengals as too many factors are working against them.
For starters, the Titans traded away their best defensive player this week in Jeffery Simmons and will also be without leading receiver in Carnell Tate. Opposing running backs have averaged four yards per carry against Tennessee with Simmons on the field — that number increases to 4.5 yards per carry on the 35 carries he has not been in the lineup.
The Titans' explosive rush rate allowed also increases from 9.8% with Simmons to 14.3% without Simmons on the field. Simmons boasts the fifth-highest pass rush grade this season out of all defensive tackles , per Pro Football Focus.
The lack of interior pressure will allow Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow to build upon his red-hot finish to Week 7. Burrow was surgical in the second half versus Baltimore, completing 88% of his passes for an average of 13.8 yards per attempt.
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Burrow is heating up, as he historically does as the season progresses — and now, he gets a highly exploitable matchup.
Tennessee's defense under head coach Robert Saleh ranks 31st in completion percentage allowed and 27th in yards per attempt allowed. The Titans' pressure rate of 30.6% ranks 26th.
However, it is even more concerning when looking at the time charted to get those pressures on quarterbacks. The Titans' 2.8 seconds per pressure is the worst in the NFL, and that number is almost certainly going to get worse with the loss of Simmons.
If Tennessee is going to make this game competitive, it has to be the doing of Cam Ward. Tony Pollard and the running game were excellent a week ago versus Cleveland, but the Bengals have the most improved run defense in the league.
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Cincinnati Bengals Preview: Good Spot for Cincy's Defense
Al Golden's defense plays with the highest rate of light boxes in alignment, yet still leads the NFL in stuff rate defending running games.
Golden can opt to add an extra defender on early downs to stymie Pollard, which will force Ward into long down-and-distance situations.
Without their top weapon on the outside in Tate, the Titans lack playmakers to move the chains when they get to third down. Ward and company already struggle in these situations, ranking 27th in third-down conversion rate.
The Bengals boast the eighth-best defense per dropback, according to expected points added (EPA).
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Projecting the Titans' success in this spot becomes extremely difficult when you consider that 43% of all their pass attempts on 2nd-and-8+ and 28% of all attempts on 3rd- or 4th-and-8+ longer were funneled to Tate.
The Titans' passing game is facing an uphill battle in overcoming their deficiencies when their running game on standard downs isn't keeping them ahead of schedule.
Titans vs Bengals Picks, Betting Analysis
Tennessee has a -62 scoring margin in the first half of games this season, which is the worst in the league.
The Titans will likely fall behind early and have no choice but to abandon the running game. This further puts the onus of any potential comeback in the hands of Cam Ward.
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Ward's 27.1 passer rating under pressure and turnover-worthy throw rate nearly doubling his big-time throw rate makes it too difficult to trust him in delivering any chance at a backdoor cover.
The Bengals are -6.5 in the 1st half, which is another position worth a look. However, I am more comfortable allowing the full 60 minutes to play out as Ward's game-altering mistake(s) can come at any time.
Joe Burrow is heating up at the right time and the Titans do not have the personnel to slow him down. I expect the Bengals to cruise to victory with significant margin.
Pick: Bengals -13.5 (-110)
