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The Toledo Rockets take on the Sacramento State Hornets in Sacramento, California, on Wednesday, Nov. 4. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Toledo is favored by -25.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -3500. Sacramento State, meanwhile, enters as a +25.5 underdog and is +1400 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.
Here's my Toledo vs. Sacramento State predictionand college football pick for Wednesday, November 4.
Toledo vs. Sacramento State Pick: Toledo 1H -14.5 (Play to -16.5)
My Sacramento State vs. Toledo best bet is on the Rockets to cover the first-half spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Toledo vs Sacramento State point spread: Toledo -25.5, Sacramento State +25.5
Toledo vs Sacramento State over/under: 52.5 Total Points
Toledo vs Sacramento State moneyline: Toledo -3200, Sacramento State +1400
Jason Candle may no longer head Toledo , but Toledo hasn't fully rid itself of the Candle experience.
This season, the Rockets have seen major lapses in game performance, both offensively and defensively, leading to a 23-8 loss to Buffalo as 18.5-point favorites and games against Temple and Western Michigan in which the defense allowed 86 points combined.
When the complete game comes together, Toledo is still a good team. After all, it's 6-2 on the season.
At the surface, Toledo fields a top-20 defense in terms of Success Rate and a top-35 offense. Quarterback John Alan Richter leads the MAC in yards, touchdowns and passer rating, and top receiver Adjatay Dabbs has turned heads at the NFL level.
It's another elite passing attack under offensive coordinator Cris Reisert, who helped develop Oregon State sensation Braden Atkinson .
Toledo's defense rosters plenty of stars and thrives in creating Havoc.
Predictably, defensive end Andrew Zock is having himself another outstanding year, logging nine sacks already, following up his SoCon Defensive Player of the Year season in 2025.
Linebacker Isaac Zay is one of the most involved players in the country, recording 26 run stops, two sacks and two interceptions (plus two more pass deflections).
But far too many turnovers on offense often put the defense in tough spots.
But given all that, Toledo is still prone to completely fall apart in one or more aspects of the game. It gained 31% of available yards against Buffalo and allowed 261 rushing yards to Temple. This team is all over the place.
Sacramento State notched its first FBS win since joining Division I-A last week, beating Kent State , 31-10, at home. That win clearly meant quite a bit to the coaching staff, which celebrated it with emotion on their sleeves.
But there's no time to linger on the win — Sac State plays its next game just four days after its last, setting up a three-games-in-12-days run. That stretch includes Toledo, which comes in with a rest advantage, and a trip to Mount Pleasant, Michigan, to play Central Michigan .
Considering Sac State covers all of these travel expenses and already has a thin roster, this is a downright brutal stretch.
Don't let the first win fool you; this team isn't very good.
It lost quarterback Carson Conklin for a majority of the season (he hasn't returned since suffering a Week 0 injury) and ranks near worst in many offensive and defensive metrics.
Despite bringing size to the table, Sac State loses the battle on both lines of scrimmage frequently and is prone to busts in assignment and coverage.
Its defense has given lethargic offenses its best days (surrendered 38 to Bowling Green ).
Though physical, Sac State is often undisciplined. Only Cal commits more yards in penalties on a per-game basis, and the 13 turnovers against FBS foes fall inside the 20-most nationally.
Freshman Isaiah Ene has emerged as a good and physical freshman at running back, but he doesn't bring enough pop to offset the deficiencies around the offensive roster.
It took hosting the 132nd-ranked team (per consensus power ratings) and that team committing five turnovers to win its first FBS game. In response, Sac State saw a major boost to its power rating.
I don't buy it.
At one point, Toledo was laying 28.5 points on the road, a number bet down to 25.5 by Monday night.
Quite the predicament — lay 28.5 with an inconsistent Toledo team that has proven to drop double-digit stinkers or take 28.5 points against a team hilariously outmanned at nearly every position.
This game is ridiculous in a number of ways. Chiefly, TV schedules dictate this game kicks off at 4 p.m. local time when the sun is still up and well before most people can get out of work. Prepare for an odd vibe as MACtion gets some daylight.
Sac State is already a program that sees inconsistencies in its attendance. Last year, it averaged about 15,000 fans per game, but its win over Kent State pulled only 9,000.
Given the time slot and midweek schedule, 9,000 might be a generous appraisal. This stadium is going to be empty.
Add the vacant stands with the odd time and date slot to the fact that Toledo has a rest advantage and Sac State only has four days' rest, and you're in for one weird football game.
Sacramento State must try to repeat a stellar performance at home, but it's coming off an emotional first win of FBS membership. I believe this team is in for a rude awakening against a vastly superior team.
The Hornets can't count on benefiting from five more turnovers, and they don't have the depth to play two games in five days. This is a flash fire in the making.
