We've studied the entire Orioles organization and talked to the experts and they have a major centerfield issue and there's no easy solution to it.
The free agent class is weak overall , there is a lockout on the horizon and the Orioles are going to have to be prepared to throw real money at their pitching woes. Despite drafting college outfielders at the top of the draft for years, Mike Elias has yet to develop anything close to an everyday centerfielder and even in the lost 2026 campaign Elias often preferred journeymen AAAA guys like Christian Franklin and Leody Taveras to fifth-overall pick Colton Cowser - which speaks volumes - and he didn't even want to give Enrique Bradfield Jr. or Jud Fabian, both top picks, a single game in Baltimore.
That spoke loudest of all.
It's a massive problem and the spine of this team absolutely must get sorted out ( shortstop and second base and catcher are also concerns defensively ) so they can become at least quasi-sound fundamentally. And I don't know about you, but throwing $25M a year at Trent Grisham doesn't do a whole lot for me and that about it on the open marker.
Elias likes to make trades and he likes short-term commitments with a fixed cost and after talking to people we trust in the game and studying depth charts and sizing up trade matches, we found their guy. It would take some creative though and I am well aware that Twins All-Star centerfielder Byron Buxton has scuttled deals in the past and as a "10-5" guy he can nix any move.
At the very least the Orioles need to attempt to make this happen. And they'd need to do that by adding, say $5M a year to his salary, and laying out their extensive offseason plan ( including trading for, say Shane McClanahan and/or signing Freddy Peralta ) and they'd need to be convincing human beings and passionate leaders and we know Elias is a sadack, loser with no personality and pathetic people skills, so, yeah, it might be a stretch.
But Buxton should be a priority. Here's why:
Sep 18, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser (17) is unable to make the catch on a home run ball over center field hit by Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio (11) in the second inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Cowser cannot hit lefties or offspeed pitches and is an extreme feast-or-famine guy with a broken hit took who cannot stay hot more than month and is prone to 2-3 month deep funks. He is athletic enough for center and has a big arm and is favored in many metrics, but you cannot build an outfield around him, his decision making and throwing accuracy are issues and he is anything but a natural leader ... which your CF should be.
"I don't know that they got any answers about anything other than every outfielder that the Orioles have right now, should not be a starting OF next year," Orioles HOF shortstop and analyst Mike Bordick told me on " The Daily Flock Show" recently . "Every guy ... There have to be some major adjustments and evaluations."
This is a void, trying to move Jackson Holliday there seems like pure folly now as much as I wanted to embrace that, and the Orioles broken player-development team could never take that on, and something significant must be done to address it.
May 30, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. (88) looks on during the second inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Grisham is the only real centerfielder, that is a very erratic hit tool, he's going to be overpaid because he's been a Yankee and New York still needs him (Spencer Jones in CF everyday in The Bronx?), and the lack of other options works in his favor in supply vs demand. Luis Robert is always hurt and they just wasted $5M on his silly waiver claim and he can't play CF anymore, anyway.
Aug 18, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins pinch hitter Byron Buxton (25) celebrates his run against the Atlanta Braves in the eighth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The injuries are a big deal. Not going to minimize that at all. But he is always good for at least an .830 OPS, he hit 25 homers inn 93 games last season, he is a real leader with some real gravitas and he was back to being a beast in the outfield last season. You need to build in DH days and some offdays, but this stud at two years/$30M left on his deal at age 33? That checks a lot of boxes.
Here are his OPS+ numbers since 2019: 115, 125, 171, 133, 97, 137, 138, 125
Sold!
He has the no-trade via the 10-5 clause which supersedes the limited no trade built into he deal for 2027 and 2028. He has turned down, as we hear it, at least three legit agreed-upon trades in the past. He's made noise about wanting to be a Twin forever ... but also made noise about wanting to win and he's been involved in trade talks going back a ways.
The Twins owners love saving money, no way is he doing another extension there. Of course, Buxton probably sees the Twins as being better positioned to win than the Orioles, so there would have to be conviction and a blueprint about how he fits into a decidedly aggressive offseason plan to win right now.
Sep 23, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) strikes out swinging during the sixth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Jamie LeBlanc-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Lee ain't an everyday shortstop and we know Gunnar Henderson has his fielding issues but he also has logged a lot of innings there. Both Henderson and Buxton have two years left and Henderson has been more durable and he's younger, but neither of these players is signing with these teams and both are two-year rentals. and Henderson is gone by the trade deadline either way.
The Orioles would also get back prospects in this deal because Henderson is younger and cheaper. If nothing else this is interesting food for thought to me, with the Twins throwing in extra pieces.
"Buxton straight up for Gunnar, maybe," said one longtime MLB exec who I floated this with. "It's not crazy. Buy low on Gunnar with Buxton aging."
Or maybe the Orioles could approach it another way.
The Twins got value from a light-hitting second baseman last year with glove issues in Luis Arraez before trading him. Jackson Holliday hasn't even proven he can hit .250 and get on base 32% of the time yet, so he ain't within a country mile of Arraez there. But he's a recent 1-1 with a great family pedigree and bloodlines and he is young and cheap for a long time and should be a .350 on-base guy with 30 double potential in a real org that knows what it's doing.
Holliday is screaming out for a change of scenery and I suspect his dad and agent are all for it, too. Especially with Blaze Alexander and Jordan Westburg coming back in a crowded infield and Coby Mayo showing he is an MLB bat who also can only play IF and Elias wanting to make Christian Encarnacion-Strand a thing, too.
You could throw in Colton Cowser with Holliday to help them replace Buxton's defense in a platoon role, and get something back in return. Veteran catcher Victor Caritini has been an expert framer in his career, which the Orioles desperately need, and is excels blocking (not so great throwing guys out), and he could be valuable with catching a lingering need.
The more you research these rosters and farm systems the more you see a match, and Elias competed two significant deals with them previously: Dean Kremer was just dealt there at the deadline and Elias landed a package for Jorge Lopez at the deadline early in the rebuild..
Hmmm.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/mlb/orioles/onsi as The Orioles Should Trade Gunnar Henderson For This Superstar Centerfielder .
