Can UConn beat Michigan? Huskies have a better chance than you think

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Can UConn beat Michigan? Huskies have a better chance than you think

Can UConn beat Michigan? Huskies have a better chance than you think

Jordan Mendoza, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Sun, Apr 5, 2026 ·

5 min read

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INDIANAPOLIS – The men's national championship game has Dan Hurley feeling like he's in "Space Jam."

Not because he feels like he's got Michael Jordan and his secret stuff. Yes, he does have Bill Murray on his side , but he won't be a last-minute substitution .

It's because Connecticut is about to face the "Monstars."

The Final Four magic Hurley has crafted — 5-0 in his career — will face its toughest challenge yet with the vaunted No. 1 seed Michigan awaiting the Huskies in Lucas Oil Stadium , playing like it gained some basketball superpower to make them supersized and on a warpath to make UConn its final victim to punctuate a dominant season.

"Their size kind of do remind you of the Monstars," said UConn guard Silas Demary Jr.

Michigan vs UConn prediction, spread: Who is favored to win national championship?

Morez Johnson Jr. #21 of the Michigan Wolverines dunks the ball against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 04, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
(Patrick Smith, Getty Images)

Michigan Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) scores against the Arizona Wildcats in the first half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium.
(Trevor Ruszkowski, Imagn Images)

Yaxel Lendeborg #23 of the Michigan Wolverines reacts with teammates against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 04, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
(Michael Reaves, Getty Images)

Yaxel Lendeborg #23 and Trey McKenney #1 of the Michigan Wolverines react while playing against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 04, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
(Michael Reaves, Getty Images)

Aday Mara #15 of the Michigan Wolverines shoots the ball against Motiejus Krivas #13 of the Arizona Wildcats during the first half in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 04, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
(Michael Reaves, Getty Images)

Head coach Dusty May of the Michigan Wolverines looks on against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 04, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
(Michael Reaves, Getty Images)

Morez Johnson Jr. #21 of the Michigan Wolverines reacts while playing against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 04, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
(Patrick Smith, Getty Images)

Morez Johnson Jr. #21 of the Michigan Wolverines defends Motiejus Krivas #13 of the Arizona Wildcats during the first half in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 04, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
(Michael Reaves, Getty Images)

Elliot Cadeau #3 of the Michigan Wolverines shoots a three pointer against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 04, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
(Michael Reaves, Getty Images)

Elliot Cadeau #3 of the Michigan Wolverines reacts while playing against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 04, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
(Patrick Smith, Getty Images)

Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) in action against the Arizona Wildcats in the first half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium.
(Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)

Arizona Wildcats guard Jaden Bradley (0) shoots over Michigan Wolverines guard Elliot Cadeau (3) in the first half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium.
(Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)

Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) shoots over Arizona Wildcats center Motiejus Krivas (13) in the first half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium.
(Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)

Michigan Wolverines guard Trey McKenney (1) in action against Arizona Wildcats forward Ivan Kharchenkov (8) in the first half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium
(Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)

Michigan Wolverines guard Elliot Cadeau (3) shoots over Arizona Wildcats guard Jaden Bradley (0) in the first half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium.
(Trevor Ruszkowski, Imagn Images)

Michigan Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) shoots against the Arizona Wildcats in the first half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium.
(Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)

Arizona Wildcats forward Ivan Kharchenkov (8) goes to the basket against Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) in the first half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium.
(Trevor Ruszkowski, Imagn Images)

Michigan Wolverines guard Elliot Cadeau (3) shoots against Arizona Wildcats center Motiejus Krivas (13) in the first half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium.
(Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)

Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5) shoots over Michigan Wolverines guard Elliot Cadeau (3) in the first half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium.
(Trevor Ruszkowski, Imagn Images)

A general view as Motiejus Krivas #13 of the Arizona Wildcats and Aday Mara #15 of the Michigan Wolverines jump for the ball during the first half in the Final Four of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 04, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana
(Patrick Smith, Getty Images)

Monstrous would be one way to describe Michigan's performance against Arizona . A game billed as the true national championship between the two heavyweights of the season looked like a buy game in December, with the Wolverines overwhelming the Wildcats from the start for their fifth straight tournament win by double-digits.

UConn staff and players made sure to watch the game following their win over Illinois, and it was just as much of a shock to them.

"I kind of didn't see that happening," Demary said. "Everybody was just hitting shots… They pretty much kind of dominated the game throughout the whole game."

Whether it's knocking down 3-pointers, turning the game into a dunk contest or leaving opposing offenses helpless, Michigan is "scary," Hurley said, adding "you've got to have a plan A, a plan B and a plan C" against it.

Michigan is the first team to score at least 90 points in five straight March Madness games.

UConn has built a reputation on succeeding on the biggest stage, one win away from its third national title in four years. However, that run didn't come with a whole bunch of struggle.

The best seed the Huskies saw in the 2023 title run was a No. 3, and the 2024 championship team was so talented, not even the Zach Edey-led Purdue team stood much of a chance. UConn came close to beating eventual champion Florida in the second round last season, but it's not farfetched to say the Wolverines are the best team Hurley will have ever faced in the tournament.

Everything (including the 7.5-point spread) screams Michigan running away with this one to cement one of the most impressive seasons, especially with fresh UConn's injury issues . But if there is one team to spoil it all, it would be UConn.

After all, remember how they got here?

"We shot 1-for-18 vs. Duke, down 19. Nobody in the country, in the whole wide world, thought we were going to win that game," said UConn center Tarris Reed Jr.. "The second half, we promised each other we're gonna go out with fighting honor, no matter what the result is. We knew there was going to be a slight chance that Duke will slip up, we're going to have a small window for us to really win this game, and we have to take advantage

"We kept fighting, kept running through the fences, and we ended up winning that game," he added.

The Huskies may in fact be the perfect team to spoil Michigan's title hopes. While Michigan is capable of delivering a knockout blow like Mike Tyson, UConn is able to make it an extremely ugly — perhaps boring — bout that can frustrate the other side.

That's why even though they're the clear underdog, Hurley actually sees advantages on his side.

"Every team has some vulnerabilities. No teams are perfect," he said. "We're going to do things to make our opponents move defensively maybe more than they are accustomed to, and then hopefully that has a compounding effect for us during the course of the game where it could just wear an opponent down a little bit, just having to run around and chase people and off-ball movement more than they're accustomed to."

The evidence supports it. Illinois came into the Final Four the top offensive efficiency team in the country, and the Huskies' defense made it uncomfortable to grind out the win . Even with UConn's own middling offensive showing, the Fighting Illini shot 33.9% from the field and scored 62 points, its worst performance since — playing UConn in November, when it shot a season-low 31.7% and scored 61.

UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 22, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
(Emilee Chinn, Getty Images)

UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts in the first half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
(Kyle Ross, Kyle Ross-Imagn Images)

UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
(Bill Streicher, Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)

UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts with guard Malachi Smith (0) in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
(Kyle Ross, Kyle Ross-Imagn Images)

UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts with UCLA Bruins head coach Mick Cronin in the second half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
(Bill Streicher, Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)

Mar 22, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts after defeating the UCLA Bruins in a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
(Bill Streicher, Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)

Mar 27, 2026; Washington, DC, USA; UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts in the first half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the East Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images
(Amber Searls, Amber Searls-Imagn Images)

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - MARCH 20: Head coach Dan Hurley of the UConn Huskies reacts against the Furman Paladins during the second half in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 20, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
(Emilee Chinn, Getty Images)

Head coach Dan Hurley of the UConn Huskies reacts against the Furman Paladins during the second half in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 20, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
(Emilee Chinn, Getty Images)

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - MARCH 22: UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 22, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
(Emilee Chinn, Getty Images)

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - MARCH 22: UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts after Braylon Mullins #24 of the UConn Huskies shot during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 22, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
(Emilee Chinn, Getty Images)

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - MARCH 22: UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley reacts during the second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 22, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
(Emilee Chinn, Getty Images)

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 27: Head coach Dan Hurley of the UConn Huskies looks on during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans in the Sweet Sixteen of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Capital One Arena on March 27, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
(Emilee Chinn, Getty Images)

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 27: Head coach Dan Hurley of the UConn Huskies reacts during the second half against the Michigan State Spartans in the Sweet Sixteen of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Capital One Arena on March 27, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
(Emilee Chinn, Getty Images)

That 90-point benchmark Michigan has reached, UConn has only allowed twice this season, and one of those games ended in overtime.

Plus, you have to account UConn has been here before. Hurley is undefeated in the Final Four and has guys who have won titles with him. In a tournament that has proven how valuable experience is, it doesn't get better than championship expertise.

That's why May isn't counting on his team to coast to the title.

"We never ride momentum. It's 'What do we need to do to prepare to play well against UConn?' They have championship DNA. They're conditioned to win. This run they're on is one of the best — probably the best since John Wooden," May said. "If we think any momentum or wave, riding in on a wave is going to take care of UConn, then we're going to be very disappointed at about 11 p.m. (Monday) night."

Remember why we love March Madness? A whole season gets thrown out the window the moment the ball tips. Who is more talented doesn't matter. It's all about being the better team for 40 minutes, surviving and advancing. Hurley and May reminded everyone this isn't a seven-game series where the best team typically wins.

It will be a de facto Game 7, and anything can happen in the final 40 minutes of the college basketball season — like UConn shocking the college basketball world.

After all, the "Monstars" did end up losing.

"There's been plenty of times in the history of this tournament where the best team hasn't won it," Hurley said. "You've just got to be better for one night."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Michigan favored to win national championship, but UConn won't fold

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