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The ULM Warhawks take on the South Alabama Jaguars in Mobile, Alabama, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
South Alabama is favored by -14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 57.5 points.
Here's my ULM vs. South Alabama predictionand college football pick for Saturday, October 3.
LA-Monroe vs. S. Alabama Pick: Over 57.5
My S. Alabama vs. LA-Monroe best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
ULM vs South Alabama point spread: South Alabama -14 (-110 ), ULM +14 (-110)
ULM vs South Alabama over/under: 57.5 (-110o / -110u)
ULM vs South Alabama moneyline: ULM +450, South Alabama -600
If you're looking for a defense to cash an over ticket, ULM is certainly willing to lend a hand.
The Warhawks enter Mobile allowing 42.8 points per game and rank 135th nationally in EPA/Play allowed, with opponents generating a ridiculous 50.8% Success Rate.
It's bad against the pass, but somehow even worse on the ground. ULM is allowing 5.8 yards per carry and +0.31 EPA/Rush, while opponents own a 53.6% Success Rate on standard downs.
The Warhawks also rank 137th nationally in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert 53.3% of their opportunities.
Uh, yeah. Good luck getting off the field.
They didn't show up again last week when Florida Atlantic hung 45 points on them, but there was at least something encouraging for us on the other side.
Quarterback Aidan Armenta completed 23-of-29 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns, helping the Warhawks generate +0.17 EPA/Play despite the 45-17 loss.
That's important because South Alabama 's defense isn't exactly interested in getting stops, either. ULM's offense might look atrocious on paper, but I saw enough things last week to make me think it will hold its own and score some points.
South Alabama is coming off a 45-21 loss to Kentucky , but this is a massive drop in defensive competition for quarterback Jared Hollins and the Jaguars.
Hollins threw for 266 yards and two touchdowns against the Wildcats, and now he gets a ULM secondary allowing 8.2 yards per attempt.
South Alabama should also be able to name its number on the ground. Running back PJ Martin leads the Jaguars with 270 rushing yards and four touchdowns, and South Alabama generates +0.18 EPA/Rush.
That matchup is almost comical against a ULM defense allowing +0.31 EPA/Rush.
The Jaguars play at a high pace, averaging 77 offensive snaps per game, eighth-most nationally. They're converting 46% of their third downs and averaging 4.30 points per scoring opportunity.
Unfortunately for South Alabama, its defense is quite pathetic. The Jaguars rank 132nd in EPA/Play allowed, 134th in Success Rate allowed and dead last nationally in EPA/Rush allowed.
We're pairing two bottom-seven EPA defenses here, and I think there's going to be multiple trips to the end zone on both sides.
Sometimes we don't need to overcomplicate things, and that's the approach I took here.
ULM ranks 135th in EPA/Play allowed, and South Alabama ranks 132nd — both defenses allow a Success Rate north of 48%, while South Alabama sits 138th in EPA/Rush allowed and ULM checks in at 136th.
Neither defense consistently creates Havoc, and both have struggled once opponents cross the 40, with ULM allowing 4.45 Points Per Opportunity and South Alabama allowing 4.08.
Based on that and the early market steam, we're going to get a shootout in Mobile.
I especially like that Armenta showed some life last week because I don't need ULM to win this game; I just need the Warhawks to contribute somewhere around 20 points while South Alabama does the heavy lifting.
Hollins, Martin and this Jaguars offense should consistently stay ahead of the chains against a defense allowing a 50.8% Success Rate and every opponent has stomped all over them.
The market opened around 56.5 before moving to 57.5, so I'm locking this in now before we hit 59. Unfortunately, ULM's program stands no chance in today's NIL era, and that will continue to be on full display on Saturday.
Pick: Over 57.5 (Play to 59)
