Updated Cowboys, Chiefs playoff picture after Thanksgiving tilt: DVOA, The Athletic, and ESPN model odds

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Updated Cowboys, Chiefs playoff picture after Thanksgiving tilt: DVOA, The Athletic, and ESPN model odds

Gerard Angelo Samillano, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Wed, Dec 3, 2025 ·

4 min read

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The post Updated Cowboys, Chiefs playoff picture after Thanksgiving tilt: DVOA, The Athletic, and ESPN model odds appeared first on ClutchPoints .

Well, talk about a game that's completely flipped the script. The Dallas Cowboys ' win over the Kansas City Chiefs came as a surprise to many. While Dallas has been playing well as of late, it still was a shock to see them go blow-for-blow against a rejuvenated Patrick Mahomes . Meanwhile, Kansas City was coming off a clutch win against the Colts that seemed to have turned their team around.

After that Thanksgiving game, though, the landscape looks much different. The Chiefs are now in real danger of missing not only the Super Bowl, but the entire playoffs as well. On the other hand, the door has been opened for the Cowboys to make it to the playoffs, something that seemed impossible just a few weeks ago.

How possible is it for both these teams to make the playoffs? Let's look at the playoff odds for the Chiefs and Cowboys, based on the three major prediction models.

DVOA

We did say that the door was open for the Cowboys to make it to the playoffs. That doesn't necessarily mean that said door is wide open. According to FTN's DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average), the Cowboys have a 17% chance of making it to the playoffs, with 9.5% of those odds having them make it as the NFC East champions.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs' playoff odds look a little healthier than the Cowboys, but it's still a bit perilous. DVOA has the Chiefs making the playoffs 46.2% of the time. While there's still an outside chance for them to host a playoff game (2.0% chance of winning the AFC West), their best path to the playoffs seems to be the Wild Card round as the away team.

ESPN's Football Power Index

Moving over to ESPN's playoffs prediction model, their Football Power Index, or FPI, projects a similar path for the Cowboys. ESPN has the Cowboys' playoff odds at around 18%, with a 10% chance of hosting a Wild Card game as the division champions. It's also worth noting that ESPN gives Dallas a 1% chance of making it to the Super Bowl.

As for the Chiefs, ESPN doesn't seem to be as high on the reigning AFC champs making it to the playoffs. According to their model, the Chiefs' odds of making the playoffs are at 41% with a 2% chance of winning the AFC West. They also give the Chiefs a 9% chance of winning the Super Bowl if they make it to the postseason.

The Athletic

As for The Athletic, Austin Mock's model favors the Cowboys the most out of the three we've looked at. Under his model, Dallas makes it to the postseason 23% of the time, with a 10% chance of winning the division. That being said, The Athletic also has the Cowboys' Super Bowl odds at less than 1%.

On the flip side, The Athletic doesn't think too highly of the Chiefs' playoff chances this season. Mock's model has the Chiefs' odds at around 37%, with a 2% chance of winning the AFC West. Even if they do make the postseason, The Athletic thinks that Kansas City only has a 2% chance of winning it all.

Chiefs and Cowboys' outlook

The Cowboys' renewed playoff hope this season is based on their performance in their last three games. They've defeated both teams that played in the Super Bowl last season (Chiefs and Eagles) and convincingly beat the Las Vegas Raiders . Whether their performance is sustainable is another question: both the Chiefs and Eagles have looked shaky this season compared to other teams, so using them as a barometer for success might not be as reliable as one might hope. That being said, their high-powered offense and their defense that's clicking at the right time could make them an opportunistic playoff hopeful down the stretch.

As for the Chiefs… well, their situation is more manageable, yet things are looking a little down for them this season. After not making a ton of major changes, Kansas City was projected to be a top contender in the AFC this season. However, they've looked incredibly inconsistent this season. They've uncharacteristically hovered around .500 as Mahomes tries desperately to keep the Chiefs' struggling defense afloat . With the Broncos ' sudden rise and the influx of top teams in the Wild Card round, their playoff hopes suddenly don't look as clear at first. That being said, their championship pedigree allows many to give them the benefit of the doubt as the playoffs draw closer.

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