Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the NFL as the most celebrated wide receiver prospect fantasy football has ever seen. Two seasons in, the fantasy community has finally stopped waiting for the leap.
His price has dropped accordingly, which raises an obvious question. Fantasy managers have to decide whether this is a buying opportunity or an accurate reflection of the player.
Nothing about Harrison's first two NFL seasons changes the fact that he will always go down as the greatest fantasy football wide receiver prospect of all time. That is not hyperbole. The hype was earned and the profile was pristine.
In retrospect, drafting him at the 1/2 turn as a rookie was very foolish. We will never see a rookie receiver go that high again. After a disappointing debut, his price dropped as a sophomore, though the fantasy community mostly still believed. That belief is over now.
So the question becomes whether Harrison represents a value at this reduced cost or whether he simply is not as good as we all thought.
Here is what keeps nagging at me. Harrison alpha'd Michael Wilson every time the two shared a field, which is exactly what should happen. Yet Harrison has never once shown the ability to do what Wilson did in the games Harrison missed. He did not post a single 100-yard game last season. Wilson had more 100-yard games last season alone than Harrison has managed in his entire career. Why?
Occam's Razor says the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. I think Harrison just is not that good.
START PREPARING: PFN's FREE Fantasy Draft Simulator
Let me be precise about what I mean. He is an NFL wide receiver. He is a fantasy-relevant player. I also think he is a WR3/Flex option and that is the full extent of it. I am never impressed watching him play. I do not see the separation others insist is there, and his route win rate backs up what my eyes are telling me.
The data is consistent across the board. Harrison averaged 1.65 yards per route run and 0.081 first downs per route run. Both figures landed outside the top 40. He earned an 18% target share while being targeted on 19.8% of his routes run. None of those numbers belong to a player on the verge of a breakout.
There is exactly one encouraging marker on his profile, and that is his 2.34 yards per route run against man coverage. It is a real data point and worth acknowledging. It is not remotely enough to override everything else suggesting he lacks the talent.
FANTASY RANKINGS: PFN's FREE Fantasy PPR, Half-PPR, and Non-PPR Rankings
Harrison is my WR31 against a WR32 ADP, which means I have no real quarrel with his price. The market has adjusted to roughly the right place.
That does not make him someone I want. Simply put, I am not drafting him.
Ja'Marr Chase| CIN
Puka Nacua| LAR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba| SEA
Amon-Ra St. Brown| DET
Drake London| ATL
Justin Jefferson| MIN
Nico Collins| HOU
CeeDee Lamb| DAL
A.J. Brown| NE
Malik Nabers| NYG
George Pickens| DAL
Rashee Rice| KC
Chris Olave| NO
Zay Flowers| BAL
Jaylen Waddle| DEN
DeVonta Smith| PHI
Ladd McConkey| LAC
Tee Higgins| CIN
Terry McLaurin| WAS
Emeka Egbuka| TB
Tetairoa McMillan| CAR
Garrett Wilson| NYJ
Luther Burden III| CHI
Christian Watson| GB
Jameson Williams| DET
Parker Washington| JAX
Rome Odunze| CHI
Carnell Tate| TEN
DJ Moore| BUF
Marvin Harrison Jr.| ARI
Davante Adams| LAR
Brian Thomas Jr.| JAX
Quentin Johnston| LAC
Mike Evans| SF
Stefon Diggs| WAS
Michael Wilson| ARI
DK Metcalf| PIT
Jakobi Meyers| JAX
Josh Downs| IND
Michael Pittman Jr.| PIT
Jayden Reed| GB
Courtland Sutton| DEN
Wan'Dale Robinson| TEN
Chris Godwin Jr.| TB
Makai Lemon| PHI
Jordan Addison| MIN
Alec Pierce| IND
Khalil Shakir| BUF
De'Zhaun Stribling| SF
Rashid Shaheed| SEA
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network .
