West Virginia will take its two-game winning streak on the road to Lubbock this weekend, taking on the 15th-ranked team in the country, Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders are massive favorites, as you would expect, but anything can happen in college football, as we are reminded on a weekly basis this fall. WVU was double-digit dogs to Virginia and TCU, yet won both games. Can they do it again on Saturday night?
I've got three boxes the Mountaineers must check off, and if they do, they will be singing "Take Me Home, Country Roads" all night long.
The Mountaineers' rushing attack will be the best one Texas Tech has seen this season, with all due respect to Cincinnati and Houston, who are dynamic on the ground in their own way. It just so happens that the only two legitimate rushing attacks Tech has faced, they have struggled, allowing a combined average of 215 yards (vs. Cincy & UH). Hitting 215+ alone may not be enough to win this game, but coupling it with the other two we are about to hit, will.
Aside from Cincinnati and Houston, the other teams Texas Tech has faced currently rank 103rd, 138th, 94th, 93rd, and 104th, respectively, on the ground. West Virginia is fifth in the country and No. 1 among Power Four schools, with Cincy being the next closest, averaging 32.25 fewer yards. The Beacats racked up 255 on the ground against the Red Raiders, and that was more than enough to get the win.
In a game that will likely be a high-scoring affair, West Virginia needs to make sure it reaches the end zone as much as possible. Duh.
But it's no coincidence that in WVU's three wins over Power Four teams, the red zone touchdown percentages for those games were 75% (vs. Virginia), 80% (vs. Cincinnati), and 100% (vs. TCU).
In their three losses, it was 50% (vs. Oklahoma State), 100% (vs. Iowa State), and 50% (vs. Arizona) - Iowa State being the outlier.
We could lower this number to 60% to include all games (Coastal Carolina and UT Martin), in which case the Mountaineers are 5-1 when they hit that mark. But going with 70%+ would make it more likely that WVU comes out on top.
For what it's worth, Texas Tech is 55th in the country (9th in the Big 12) in opponent red zone touchdown percentage (56.5%).
West Virginia hasn't had a ton of success in any one area this season, but they have done a decent job of getting to the quarterback, believe it or not. They rank 52nd nationally in sacks per game (2.25), with most of their damage coming in games they win.
As a matter of fact, the difference in results is jarring. In their five wins, the Mountaineers have totaled 15 sacks. In their three losses? Just three...total.
This will be a stiff challenge for WVU because Tech has a pretty good offensive line (1.63 sacks allowed per game), but now has a quarterback who can make the big fellas up front right if something breaks down.
Thomas Castellanos is a headache and a half when he starts to scramble. Getting to him 2+ times is not going to be easy, but it can happen by sending numbers successfully or getting a strong push when rushing four and playing sticky coverage on the back end.
It's highly unlikely that WVU will put a lid on the explosives in the pass game, but Castellanos, regardless of where he has played, has always been a QB who throws a high percentage of his passes 20+ yards downfield. If the secondary can hold up long enough, maybe those rushing are able to get to him in time or force him into making a bad decision, which is something he is prone to do.
This is one funky and very specific stat that I wouldn't put much stock in, but I do find it odd that West Virginia has forced ninefumbles in its wins, recovering fiveof them while forcing just onefumble in the three losses, which it didn't recover.
Do I expect all of these things to happen? No, which is why I picked Texas Tech in our weekly score predictions . But hey, for what it's worth, I've been wrong the last two weeks when the Mountaineers won.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/westvirginia as Upset Guarantee: If WVU Does These 3 Things, They Will Stun Texas Tech .
