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The Utah State Aggies take on the Texas State Bobcats in San Marcos, Texas. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Texas State is favored by -12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 61.5 points.
Here's my Utah State vs. Texas State predictionand college football pick for Saturday, October 24, 2026.
Utah State vs. Texas State Pick: Texas State -12.5 (Play to -14)
My Texas State vs. Utah State best betis on the Bobcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Utah State vs Texas State point spread: Texas State -12.5 (-115), Utah State +12.5 (-105)
Utah State vs Texas State over/under: 61.5 (-110o / -110u)
Utah State vs Texas State moneyline: Utah State +430, Texas State -600
After a solid first campaign under Bronco Mendenhall in 2025, the Aggies have taken a step back this season. A repeat of last year's bowl berth seems unlikely after starting 2-4, including a late loss to FCS Idaho State .
They did pull off a dramatic second-half comeback to beat Washington State the last time out and will look to continue that momentum coming out of the bye week.
Mendenhall named McCae Hillstead the starting quarterback for the opener, but between injuries and poor play, they quickly made the switch to backup Grady Brosterhous .
He has not been the answer, though. Brosterhous leads the Pac-12 with six interceptions and is averaging just over 150 yards passing per game.
There are currently 138 teams at the FBS level and Utah State ranks 134th in offensive Success Rate.
Eli Wood is the only weapon at wide receiver, and the running game has somehow been less successful than the passing attack. The Aggies average just 120 total rushing yards per game, the worst in the Pac-12.
Despite the offensive struggles, the defense has been much stronger. The Aggies rank 54th in Success Rate Allowed and are second in the Pac-12 in total defense. They have surrendered just 5.13 yards per play, which leads the conference.
Safety Brevin Hamblin is the anchor of this defense from the backend and a tackling machine. Linebacker Asher Cunningham is a stud in the middle of this defense as well. He has six tackles for loss and has forced three fumbles this season.
This defense has done a great job keeping things in front of them, but will it be enough against this Bobcats' offense?
Texas State and G.J. Kinne have been basically the opposite of Utah State, with an electric offense and a leaky defense. The Bobcats have started 3-3, with the wins all thanks to a high-flying, run-and-gun offense. Texas State has averaged 59.3 points in its three wins.
Quarterback Brad Jackson is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the Group of 6. He has thrown for 1,439 yards and 14 touchdowns this season and has added four scores on the ground as well.
Texas State returned its top two pass catchers from last year in Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. , and they have once again been dominant in this offense. The Bobcats rank fifth in the country in Pass Success Rate.
Jackson has not had to carry the load as much this season; however, because the run game has been dominant for the Bobcats. This team has averaged 303.5 rushing yards per game this season. That ranks third in the country, behind only Army and Air Force .
Senior running back Torrance Burgess tallied just 80 carries over the last two seasons for the Bobcats but has burst onto the scene in a full-time role this year. Burgess leads the nation with 139.7 yards per game and has gone over 200 yards in two of the Bobcats' three wins this season.
He has been a beast for this team and had four touchdowns in the win against Colorado State last week.
Defense continues to be an issue in San Marcos, though. After the defense let them down last year, Kinne fired the defensive coordinator and brought in Will Windham from South Alabama , but he has been unable to turn things around so far.
Texas State ranks 111th in Success Rate Allowed and has been especially bad at defending the pass. This defense has turned every game into a shootout, allowing at least 27 points to every FBS team they have faced.
We have two polar opposites going at it on Saturday in San Marcos.
Utah State has scored just 14.5 points per game this season and has yet to eclipse 21 points. The offense in Logan has been horrendous this year. The quarterback play is a mess, and they can't run the ball at all.
The Aggies average the fewest rushing yards per game, and their two rushing scores are the fewest in the entire country.
Even in their comeback win against Washington State, the Aggies totaled just 236 total yards of offense.
That offense will be tasked now with keeping up with the best offense in the Pac-12. Texas State has averaged 40 points per game this season and leads the conference with 562.3 yards per game.
The Bobcats are top 10 in the country in Success Rate and combine a rushing attack that rivals the service academies with a veteran quarterback throwing the ball to two stud wide receivers.
Utah State has a strong defense, but nobody has been able to slow down this Texas State offense other than Texas. The Bobcats are going to be able to move the ball; the question is just if Utah State can keep up.
As bad as this Texas State defense has been, I don't see a world where Utah State can keep this close. The Aggies have not had any success throwing or running the ball this season.
As bad as Texas State has been on defense, its 111th ranking in Success Rate looks a lot better than Utah State sitting at 134th on offense.
The Bobcats are built to take the lead and then continue running downhill and run up the score on teams. Once this offense gets rolling, there is nothing Utah State will be able to do to keep up, even against a leaky defense.
Texas State has already been favored by more than 10 points twice this season. It won those games by 53 and 39 points, scoring more than 60 in both of them.
Back the Bobs to run it up again.
Pick: Texas State -12.5 (Play to -14)
