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The UTSA Roadrunners take on the Tulane Green Wave in New Orleans, Louisiana, on Saturday, Oct. 24. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
UTSA is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -134. Tulane, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +112 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here's my UTSA vs. Tulane predictionand college football pick for Saturday, October 24.
UTSA vs. Tulane Pick: UTSA -2.5 (-110)
My Tulane vs. UTSA best betis on the Roadrunners to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page , and be sure to downloadthe Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
UTSA vs Tulane point spread: UTSA -2.5 (-110), Tulane +2.5 (-110)
UTSA vs Tulane over/under: 51.5 (-110o / -110u)
UTSA vs Tulane moneyline: UTSA -134, Tulane +112
UTSA enters New Orleans at 6-1 after a 38-34 win over Navy .
While the Roadrunners have had defensive issues, I'm much more interested in backing an offense that's becoming increasingly efficient with quarterback Owen McCown operating at a high level.
McCown was outstanding against the Midshipmen, completing 28-of-38 passes for 359 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. That's 9.4 yards per attempt against a Navy defense that had given opposing offenses problems throughout the season.
The performance was particularly encouraging because it followed a more methodical 31-24 victory over South Florida , when McCown completed 22-of-31 passes for 209 yards without a turnover.
Across those two games, he completed 50-of-69 passes for 568 yards and three touchdowns without a pick.
He's clearly the best signal-caller heading into the matchup, and I have no questions about their ability to move the ball against the Green Wave.
The underlying efficiency numbers support the matchup. UTSA ranks 37th nationally in EPA/Play at +0.154 while generating a 46.5% Offensive Success Rate.
Those numbers become particularly important against a Tulane defense that has been considerably more reliable than its offense. The Roadrunners have also shown they can produce without relying exclusively on McCown.
Against South Florida, running back Will Henderson rushed for 86 yards on 13 carries, averaging 6.6 YPC, while fellow back A'Marion Peterson added 92 yards and three touchdowns on 12 attempts.
That balance gives UTSA multiple ways to stay ahead of schedule and prevent Tulane from consistently generating Havoc in obvious passing situations.
Tulane enters this matchup at 3-3 following a 31-17 victory over Memphis , but I'm not particularly interested in buying into that result when the Green Wave's season-long offensive efficiency remains this poor.
Tulane ranks 109th nationally in EPA/Play at -0.050, generating just a 38.7% Offensive Success Rate. That Success Rate ranks 135th nationally.
Those are concerning numbers for an offense preparing to face a UTSA team capable of creating explosive plays and forcing opponents to chase points.
The quarterback situation hasn't helped.
Trace Johnson completed 11-of-21 passes for 165 yards, one touchdown and one interception against Memphis, while QB Kadin Semonza completed 14-of-26 passes for 158 yards, one touchdown and one pick in the previous loss to Army.
Neither performance suggests Tulane has established a particularly consistent passing attack.
The Green Wave have also dealt with injuries at the skill positions.
Tulane's defense has been considerably more reliable.
The Green Wave are allowing -0.020 EPA/Play, ranking 39th nationally, which creates a legitimate challenge for McCown and the Roadrunners.
However, I'm not convinced that defensive advantage is significant enough to overcome the difference in offensive efficiency.
Tulane needs to consistently generate Havoc, limit explosives and force UTSA to settle for field goals rather than touchdowns. That's a tough assignment against a quarterback who has completed more than 72% of his passes over his last two games.
I also want to throw last week's offensive output in the trash, considering Memphis head coach Charles Huff completely butchered the end of half that resulted in multiple scores from the Green Wave.
Tulane's offense is a complete disaster, and I don't think it can keep up with the Roadrunners.
I'm willing to lay UTSA -2.5 despite the market moving against the Roadrunners.
This number opened around UTSA -4 before getting bet toward -1.5 to -2.5, and while that movement deserves respect, I still believe the offensive mismatch favors the road team.
UTSA ranks 37th in EPA/Play at +0.154, compared to Tulane's 109th-ranked offense at -0.050.
The Success Rate discrepancy is equally significant. The Roadrunners are generating successful plays on 46.5% of their offensive snaps, while Tulane is sitting at just 38.7%. That's a substantial difference in down-to-down efficiency.
The obvious concern is UTSA's defense, which is allowing +0.177 EPA/Play. However, Tulane hasn't demonstrated the offensive consistency necessary to exploit that weakness on a possession-by-possession basis.
That's the biggest distinction in this handicap.
The Roadrunners have the more reliable quarterback, the more productive rushing attack and a considerably better offensive efficiency profile.
Tulane's Defensive Havoc and ability to limit explosives are legitimate concerns for UTSA, but I trust McCown to make enough plays to sustain possessions and create scoring opportunities.
I'm also not interested in forcing a situational angle. Tulane is playing at home, and UTSA is coming off a narrow victory over Navy, but neither circumstance is enough to outweigh the offensive matchup.
With the number below a field goal, I'll trust the more efficient offense to win by at least three.
Give me Meep Meep to pull off a win on the road.
