For a moment early in the 2025-26 season it looked like Vanderbilt might not ever lose again. Mark Byington stacked the non-conference schedule a very manageable group of games and the Commodores followed suit by winning, and winning by a lot. They climbed all the way up to 5th in the analytics before finally taking a loss, a poor performance at Texas.
But the Commodores didn't line up murders row, in face they didn't face a top 25 level team until they met Alabama at home on January 7th. Maybe if Byington knew he would be fielding a team that would finish within the top 15 of the analytics, he might have scheduled a bit harder.
All season long Vanderbilt didn't lose to anyone bad, but they were also prone to some stinker performances. Too often the 'Dores ended up hoping Tyler Tanner would step in and save the day, and he nearly did on more than one occasion.
They had a knack for getting blown out early, surging back and then coming up short. They did that against Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. One of the reasons for that is their size, last season Vanderbilt often played with 6'7 Devin McGlockton at the five spot. They could only afford to do that because of how good Tanner became, he ended up being the 10th most valuable player in KenPom's MVP rankings.
And instead of going to the NBA Draft, Vandy's leading scorer is back for another go around.
11. LSU Tigers, 7-11
Last season: 27 – 9 (11-7 in conference) #11
The Masses Prediction: 6th in conference
SEC Media: 6th in conference
Analytics Average: 6th in conference, 23rd overall
Most of the time when college basketball media hypes the quality of a basketball coach, they're talking out of their backside. It's usually just the coach is friendlier to them, or gives them additional access. Being a good coach is such a hard thing to really judge, especially at the SEC level where there are so many good coaches, and the margins are very thin. But the hype around Mark Byington is the rare case when it's correct.
Byington's successful at each stop is easy to see, and in quick fashion he's turned Vanderbilt into a top half SEC team (no small feat considering the quality of the league the last two years), and a perennial NCAA Tournament team.Prior to his taking over, Vanderbilt was scuffling. In the previous 12 years, the program made two NCAA Tournaments. Now Byington has taken them to two more, in two years.
Byington's demeanor on the sideline is akin to that of a middle school science teacher, the kind who's just happy to see the kids participating and having a good time. He rarely looks rattled or hurried, often glancing down at a small note sheet, sometimes with his glasses perched atop his head. But his teams are fiercely competitive, and they also have a never say die attitude. See above about the getting down and coming back, even if they didn't complete the comebacks. The rosters are always uniquely built, as though Byington is looking for the exact exploit to take advantage of within the system. And now he's got a cheat code in Tyler Tanner.
Prior to Mark Byington, 12 years and two NCAA Tournaments. Vanderbilt was so bad the year before he arrived everyone just expected them to continue on that way. But Byington turned it around quickly. And Vandy, as a program, has always had the potential to be really great, they just needed the investment. And there's been investment. They've also hired a coach who is more than a coach, which is needed in college basketball. Jerry Stackhouse is actually a really good basketball coach, his prep and play designs were always excellent. But Byington is assembling much more intricate and complex rosters, that allow his to take advantage of mismatches.
It's allowed Vanderbilt to surge back to quickly.
Devin McGlockton and Tyler Nickel are gone, no longer around to terrorize the SEC. I'm a little surprised that neither hopped onto the 5th year train and tried to get another year of eligibility. But McGlockton is playing in France, and Nickel was drafted in the second round by the New York Knicks. But including those two, Vanderbilt lost 6 of the top 7 scorers, along with Duke Miles, AK Okereke, Jalen Washington, and Tyler Harris.
That made up the bulk of the rotation. In fact Vanderbilt only returns two players who played in each game last season.
If you're only bringing back two players, it helps a lot when one of those players is Tyler Tanner. Tanner was originally signed by Jerry Stackhouse, as a 3-star unranked prospect with no composite score. In the preview for Vanderbilt Tanner's freshman season, he didn't even get mentioned. But if you watched him play as af freshman, it was hard not to be impressed with his composure. But I don't think anyone foresaw what he would become as a sophomore. Tanner was the second most valuable player in the SEC per EvanMiya.com 's BPR, and the top ranked SEC player in KenPom.com 's kPOY rating.
Tanner was the 4th leading scorer in the league, and the third leading assist maker, while leading the league in steals. And then he turned down millions from the NBA to make millions in Nashville this season. Tanner taking another step forward could elevate Vanderbilt into the conversation of a protected seed.
Tanner was the second most valuable player in the SEC per EvanMiya.com's BPR, and the top ranked SEC player in KenPom.com's kPOY rating.
The only other returner is Chandler Bing, the excellently named freshman who's never seen Friends. Bing was used lightly early in the season, but as things wore on he gained more of a role, playing over 50% of the minutes after the first four conference games. Jayden Leverette was used in spot duty, and will contend for a larger role this season.
But the real work for the Commodores came via the transfer portal, where again Mark Byington put together a unique class.
The splashiest signee might be Tanner's backcourt mate Ace Glass III, because he averaged over 16 points per game as a freshman at Washington State. He's not a flashy athlete, or an explosive driver, but he's crafty and is a good enough shooter to keep defenses honest. He was the primary ball handler at WSU, so he can move Tanner off the ball for spells. There's also Missouri transfer T.O. Barrett, a strong powerful driver who will be able to provide a nice change up for the lighter Glass-Tanner combo.
I really like what Byington did with the front court, starting with Auburn transfer Sebastian Williams-Adams. A starter for 21 of the 38 games, SWA is a bit of a swiss army knife on the floor. He's big and physical enough to play around the rim, but moves well enough to defend all over the floor, and shoots it just enough to be dangerous. Playing with a ball sharer like Tanner will do a lot for this scoring.
He's joined by Nebraska transfer Berke Büyüktuncel, a burly but skilled forward, and Colorado transfer Bangot Dak. Dak is on the lighter side, but his athleticism is a plus.
Don't overlook the freshman class either, most notably Gabe Nesmith, the younger brother of former Vandy guard and Indiana Pacers guard Aaron.
Byington went against type and really shorted his bench last season. Some of that was due to injury, and TCU transfer guard Frankie Collins didn't pan out when he left the team mid-season. So Tanner ended up playing 83% of the minutes, which is higher than anyone under Byington since 2019. This year, it's going to be hard to take Tanner off the floor.
From there though, it's going to be interest to see how Byington handles his rotation and his starters. Two of the three front court additions from the offseason are the likely starters, with Dak, Büyüktuncel, and Williams-Adams likely starting most of the time in those two front court spots.
Byington seems to really trust Bing, and another offseason under his guidance isn't likely to change that. He should be challenged on the wing by Gabe Nesmith, and you could even see Barrett and Williams-Adams slot into the wing spot depending on matchups.
But one thing is clear in looking at the roster, Vanderbilt is bigger and deeper than they've been the past two seasons. Berke and Bangot are both nearly 7-feet tall, and Leverette will see minutes as well. Plus Williams-Adams who is around 6'9 and can flex to the wing, the Commodores attempted to solve some of their issues with the interior over the last two years.
This is quite a bizarre non conference schedule. Vanderbilt has real aspirations this season and the challenge here falls well short, unless Byington's plan is to just game the analytics by running up scores? They've got 8 likely Quad 4 home games set up, with only one real likely Quad 1 game on the schedule. At Ohio State is a fun one, and really more teams should be willing to play on an opponents home floor. But home games against Memphis, Wake Forest, and UCF aren't likely to land in Quad 1 territory. Then Vandy travels to Notre Dame for the ACC-SEC Challenge, to face a team on the verge of firing their basketball coach after giving him virtually no money to bring in talent with. And then a trip to Cal, who might be a fringe NCAA Tournament team.
And it's a shame the non-conference is as weak as it is, because the SEC dropped the Commodores into the deep end right off the bat with road games at Tennessee to open things up, and a trip to Gainesville a week later. They get a slight bit of relief with home games against Mississippi State and South Carolina, but the reward is a trip to Rupp Arena. They could go 2-3 and consider it a successful start. From there things get a bit easier, and they've got home games against Auburn, Missouri, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Texas, plus UK and Tennessee returning.
Their last four road games are tricky with Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma all lined up. The non-conference slate doesn't give them much wiggle room if the goal is a protected seed. They might need to pull the upset on one or two of the first three road games to get there.
When you're starting out the season with an All American candidate as your starting point guard, you are already ahead of the game. Now it's just about getting the rest of the roster up to speed.
So much of what Vanderbilt can be is going to stem from how good Tyler Tanner can be. There are 9-10 other guys on the roster who can help him out, but Tanner is a special player, with such a unique ability for playmaking. He just makes everyone better.
Each area where Vanderbilt has fallen short over the last few years has been slowly patched up. But Mark Byington is going to need some more production from players who haven't really produced a lot, historically.
A lot of this season may come down to what Byington can squeeze out of someone like Berke Büyüktuncel. In the past, Byington has managed to get more production from players than they've given in past years, even on up transfers. Duke Miles, Chris Manon, and notably Jalen Washington. That might be the blueprint for both Büyüktuncel and Bangot Dak, turn them both into Washington, who was more productive at Vanderbilt even in limited action, than he ever was at North Carolina.
There's no doubt Büyüktuncel is a skilled player, he can stretch the floor and pass the ball. He's physical defensively, and solid converting at the rim. But they'll need more than 6 points and 17% usage. The same goes for Williams-Adams, who has a high ceiling as a player, but was relegated to grunt work at Auburn last year.
With the guards Byington has signed up to go next to Tanner, it's possible all three front court additions remain relegated to afterthoughts offensively. But so much of the SEC has gone big that Vanderbilt finally has the bodies and the depth to matchup. It's just a question of what level of production they can add as well.
Tanner is going to be awesome. At least Glass and Barrett should give productive sidekicks to a possible SEC preseason player of the year, but there are legitimate questions about what the Commodores will get from their remade front court. If Büyüktuncel, Dak, and Williams-Adams are as billed, Tanner should be able to handle the rest.
About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in "the Masses" picks. Included in "the Masses" are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections , and national media outlet predictions .
Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we're taking the average of the four main sites ( EvanMiya.com , BartTorvik.com , Haslametrics.com , and KenPom.com ) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.
The projections : In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be, we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com 's BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com 's preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.
GLOSSARY
* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player
GP – Games Played
%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury
%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.
ORtg – Offensive Rating , similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it's how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.
BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.
PAR – Points Above Replacement, a Rock M+ proprietary rating measuring projected on-off impact adjusted for time on the floor.
PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.
For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com ' s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com 's Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.
