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How the Vikings Got the Sam Darnold Decision So Wrong
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- How the Vikings Got the Sam Darnold Decision So Wrong
Jeffrey Becker
For at least 12 more days — probably longer — the Minnesota Vikings have morphed into the NFL's laughingstock for letting quarterback Sam Darnold leave the franchise in March 2025 for the Seattle Seahawks . Why? Well, Darnold's Seahawks are heading to Super Bowl LX, while the Vikings decide who will lead the franchise at quarterback in 2026.
Minnesota stacked some assumptions, trusted a timeline, and watched the fallback option turn into a mistake.
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The Vikings' brass has taken heat from all angles regarding the Darnold decision-making, and here's a look at how and why they got here.
The Vikings Bet on the McCarthy and Lost — For Now
Want to know why Minnesota didn't re-sign Darnold? These are the answers to the test.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold drops back and delivers a pass as the offense settles in early during an international matchup. The moment came Oct 6, 2024, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, with the Vikings facing the Jets amid a loud, neutral-site crowd and steady first-half tempo under bright afternoon conditions. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
1. The Money
The Vikings were applauded all offseason, even into the summer of 2025, by their fans and some NFL pundits for building the trenches, using free agency to sign guard Will Fries , along with two veteran defensive tackles in Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave .
Darnold commanded $100.5 million over three years on the open market, a price a bit steep for a team about to embark on a free-agent spending spree, with a 1st-Round quarterack, J.J. McCarthy , in the chamber. While the choice wasn't totally binary, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah essentially had to choose between a semi-large contract for a quarterback who had just choked in the season's final two games — or fortifying the trenches on offense and defense.
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Months later, regular season games revealed that Darnold would replicate his 2024 production in Seattle; Fries, Hargrave, and Allen were not really worth their contracts.
2. A "J.J. McCarthy or Bust" Attitude
Eleven months before Minnesota made the fateful decision to allow Darnold's exit, the Vikings drafted McCarthy as their 1st-Round quarterback of the future. He marked the first Round 1 quarterback drafted by the club in 10 years.
What do teams do with 1st-Round quarterbacks? They start them. Only the Green Bay Packers employ a model where the guy sits for 2-3 years before sniffing the QB1 job.
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So, Minnesota looked at its depth chart, realized that it had an NCAA Championship-winning quarterback, and decided to throw caution to the wind. It was time to roll with McCarthy and deal with any revisionist history later.
By January 2026, with Darnold visiting the Super Bowl, the revisionist history has smacked the franchise in the mouth.
3. The Daniel Jones Miscalculation
In letting Darnold hit free agency, the Vikings believed they had a wise fallback plan: Daniel Jones would stay aboard as the QB1-QB2 to compete with McCarthy at training camp and in the preseason.
Adofo-Mensah even said at the year-end press conference a few weeks ago that he might've been the victim of overconfidence, thinking that, because he had forged the 2024 relationship with Jones, the recently released New York Giants passer would remain loyal to the Vikings and re-sign in the offseason.
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Instead, Jones saw the writing on the wall, knowing Minnesota would commit to McCarthy and relegate him to a QB2 job. He explored free agency and determined that he could start for the Indianapolis Colts , an assumption that proved wise until Jones ruptured his Achilles tendon in December.
In short, Minnesota let Darnold walk because it thought Jones was the "new Darnold" in 2025.
4. Darnold's Personal Preference for SEA
There's also the element of Darnold's predilection for Seattle. At the time of his signing, rookie passer Jalen Milroe was not on the roster. He was the clear-cut starter from the moment Seattle recruited him.
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In Minnesota, as Jones did with his personal examination of his options, the Vikings had McCarthy. If you were Darnold, would you rather sign the largest contract of your life with a team that would hand you the QB1 baton instantly — or choose a path to battle a preordained McCarthy to maybe win the job in the summer?
A lot is made about the Vikings' ineptitude; Darnold had a say. He picked Seattle . That's not very supernatural.
5. Insistence on a Compensatory Draft Pick
No matter what happens in the Super Bowl, the Vikings will have an extra draft pick in April because of Darnold's decision to leave the franchise. That will be a 3rd-Round compensatory pick , and in theory, the Vikings could draft a stud.
Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah addresses media members while moving between sessions and meetings during a leaguewide evaluation week. The scene was captured Feb 25, 2025, at the Indiana Convention Center in Indianapolis, as front offices gathered to assess prospects, trade landscapes, and roster-building priorities ahead of the draft. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
One must wonder, though, if Minnesota was so confident in McCarthy's trajectory that the 3rd-Round compensatory pick sweetened the deal to let Darnold leave. That is: We can roll with the guy we drafted in Round 1 while also getting a 3rd-Round draft pick — or we can stall his development, sign Darnold to a sizable contract after he just played like rubbish, and get no draft picks .
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In the spring of 2025, which option did you, the fan, prefer?
6. Faulty Logic about Darnold's Big-Game Choking
Perhaps the deadliest aspect of the Vikings' decision-making, which was shared by some fans and this very website, Adofo-Mensah may have been scared by Darnold's absolutely dastardly final two games of 2024. Darnold totally capitulated in the two biggest moments of the Vikings' season: at Detroit in Week 18 and in the Wildcard Round against the Los Angeles Rams .
Let's not sugarcoat this; the guy vanished. He played worse than the "seeing ghosts" version of himself as a rookie.
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But here's where everything broke down afterward. This logic was employed by many: "Darnold choked on the biggest stage of the season, and he will, therefore, choke again."
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold stands near the sideline, surveying the field and pregame activity before kickoff. The image dates to Dec 28, 2025, at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, where Seattle prepared to face Carolina as players completed warmups and coaches finalized plans under late-season conditions. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
That theory was wrong. Darnold redeemed himself in the 2025 postseason.
Ironically, Vikings fans are enduring a similar ordeal right now with McCarthy: "McCarthy is injury-prone and ranked as the NFL's worst passer in 2025; that means he will get hurt in 2026 and probably play like crap."
Past performance does not wholly dictate the future. Darnold is evidence.
