Virginia Tech and SMU have played two of the same teams this season. SMU beat Boston College and Cal by a combined 48 points. Virginia Tech went 1-1 against them and came out plus-2.
That's the best argument against picking the Hokies on Friday night, and it isn't as strong as it looks. SMU played both games at Ford Stadium. Virginia Tech played both on the road. Adjust for home field and Boston College is close to a wash: SMU won by nine at home, and the Hokies won by seven in Chestnut Hill.
Cal is harder to wave off. SMU beat the Golden Bears 59-20, and Virginia Tech lost 25-20 in Berkeley on a touchdown with 18 seconds left. I've weighed that one, and I still think Virginia Tech is the better team.
The meter reads 52% this week.
The Hokies come in with almost two weeks of rest after last playing on Oct. 24 at Clemson. SMU lost 30-27 at Syracuse on Saturday when the Orange scored with 17 seconds left, and it has six days to reset for a Friday kickoff.
Coach James Franklin used the open date to get his offensive line closer to whole. He said on Monday he expects Montavious Cunningham and Brody Meadows back, and that having both "really helps us from an experience standpoint." Left tackle Justin Terry is still out.
The pressure matchup cuts both ways. Virginia Tech leads the ACC with 27 sacks, and SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings went down six times in the upset at Syracuse.
The rsums lean Tech's way, too. Virginia Tech's two losses came by a combined seven points. SMU's came by 13, at Louisville and at a Syracuse team that is now 4-4. The Hokies also allow fewer points per game, 20.5 to SMU's 22.3.
The number I keep coming back to is 30. SMU is 35-5 under coach Rhett Lashlee when it scores at least that many. Virginia Tech has allowed 30 once all season, in a 35-33 home loss to Pitt. All four of SMU's games under 30 this year were decided by 10 points or fewer.
Ethan Grunkemeyer won't hand SMU short fields, either. He has thrown two interceptions in 262 attempts.
ESPN's matchup predictor gives Virginia Tech a 31.9% chance, and I understand how it gets there.
SMU is 11-0 against ACC teams at Ford Stadium since joining the conference in 2024, and it averages 35.3 points a game.
Third down is where I worry most. Opponents have converted 31 of 115 against SMU, 27%, which ranks third in FBS. Grunkemeyer took six sacks at Clemson, and two returning linemen don't make third-and-long a good bet against that defense.
SMU doesn't need Jennings to carry everything, either. Kendrick Raphael has 692 rushing yards. Jennings has thrown for 2,414 yards, 21 touchdowns, and five interceptions on 73.7% passing, and he still put up 352 in the loss at Syracuse.
Why go against the number?
This comes down to whether Virginia Tech can stay out of obvious passing downs. If Grunkemeyer has time, the Hokies have the targets to hurt SMU. Que'Sean Brown has 685 receiving yards, fifth in the ACC, and Luke Reynolds leads the league in tight ends with 493.
The protection is what keeps me close to 50 percent. Six sacks at Clemson are too recent, and Terry still isn't back.
Hold SMU in the 20s, and Virginia Tech's chances of playing in the ACC title game stay alive.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/virginiatech as Virginia Tech Confidence Meter: How I Feel About the Hokies' Chances Against SMU .
