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The Virginia Tech Hokies take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, Texas, on Friday, November 6. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
SMU is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +180 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56.5 total points.
Here's my Virginia Tech vs. SMU predictionand college football pick for Friday, November 6.
Virginia Tech vs. SMU Pick: Under 56.5 (Play to 55.5)
My SMU vs. Virginia Tech best bet is on under the point total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page , and be sure to downloadthe Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Virginia Tech vs SMU Spread: SMU -5.5, Virginia Tech +5.5
Virginia Tech vs SMU Over/Under: 56.5 Total Points
Virginia Tech vs SMU Moneyline: Virginia Tech ML +180, SMU ML -220
Frequent pregame conversations around James Franklin and Virginia Tech died quickly because, frankly, this team isn't very good.
Its 6-2 record isn't anything to jeer, but this team has played by far the most fortunate schedule in the ACC.
It has just one win over a team with a winning record — last week's 20-16 win over Clemson , a team with a 5-3 record but one that's also extremely flawed and reeling at a rapid rate — and a 25-20 road loss to Cal without its starting QB is particularly damning.
Stop me if you've heard this one before regarding a Franklin-led team, but Virginia Tech's offense just doesn't have any juice.
QB Ethan Grunkemeyer isn't asked to do much (66% of his attempts go under 10 yards), and the offensive line hasn't gotten any push for a listless backfield.
Further, that line's been a revolving door of players. Only two players have started every game at one position (center Kyle Altuner and tackle Aidan Lynch) and those players have allowed six sacks.
Layth Ghannam had to slide out to left tackle, but he's been flagged with eight penalties, the fourth-most in the ACC.
Rather, Franklin relies on a stout defense that does get a good push from a talented front.
DE Aycen Stevens leads the ACC with eight sacks, while all-conference tackle Kemari Copeland demands double teams throughout the game. Even though the opposing cast of offensive lines isn't very good, this is a solid defensive front.
The structure of this team limits its ceiling. Without much offensive explosive potential, Virginia Tech relies on sustained drives, which has worked out fine against a bad cast of opponents. With SMU and Miami still left, both on the road, it's probable we'll see the Hokies accrue a couple more losses.
Playing fast and loose with a schedule that ranks 78th in strength finally bit SMU. The Mustangs have escaped with a few wins while not delivering their best game, including nudging out Florida State 27-24 despite turning the ball over four times.
It surrendered non-offensive touchdowns to Missouri State, letting the Bears hang around for a 34-24 SMU win. Games against struggling Boston College and Virginia resulted in two wins by a combined 19 points — less than ideal for a team in the ACC Championship and College Football Playoff discussion.
And then SMU dropped a 30-27 game at Syracuse in which it came away with a positive Success Rate and 70% postgame win expectancy (per SP+).
This game comes before a particularly arduous stretch in which SMU will truly be tested for the first time this season. This weekend, the Mustangs host Virginia Tech and follow that up with games against Wake Forest (home) and Notre Dame (away).
Turnovers are still a problem, as are penalties, and more than 45% of SMU's possessions end in a touchdown (11th-best). But it finds the most inopportune and critical junctures to make mistakes, drastically altering the outcome of games.
The SMU pass rush is one of the nation's most effective, logging a sack on 9.3% of opposing dropbacks (12th). Only six teams have a better Passing Success Rate — this is due largely to Kevin Jennings having another outstanding season and carrying most of the water for the offense — and only 24 have defended the pass better.
On paper, SMU is a very good football team with outstanding efficiencies. It rushes the passer well, it moves the ball well, and more often than not, Jennings & Co. find six.
A critical deficiency is on special teams. Kicker Nick Reed hasn't played since Week 4, and the team ranks as one of the 10 worst on special teams per PFF.
This line opened in favor of SMU -7.5, a number bet down to -6 by Tuesday.
Early-week action also favored under 57.5, bottoming the total out at 54.5 before it was bet back up again. There's also a disproportionate amount coming in on VT outright — the Hokies command 46% of the handle despite only 9% of all bets (per Action PRO). SMU's 91/54% split of bets/handle isn't ideal if you side with the Ponies.
Both defenses counter what the opposing offense wants to do well. There's a pair of very effective pass rushes going against two offensive lines that struggle in pass protection and quarterbacks whose desire to extend the play results in added pressure. Both defenses are strong up front but also competent in the secondary.
Neither offense rosters a game-breaking receiver — Que'Sean Brown has had a solid season, but his 5-foot-8 and 170-pound frame necessitates OC Ty Howie schemes him open — and both defenses have put lids on opposing passing offenses.
Grunkemeyer isn't a mistake-prone passer, but he's one that doesn't take a lot of risks. Jennings is quite the opposite; though his interception numbers aren't high, he's willing to take risks (11 turnover-worthy throws, but 15 big-time throws, per PFF). Expect VT to sit back in coverage and force Jennings to take what he's given; should he force the issue, there'll be turnovers.
Pace is moderate on both sides, but there's not a lot of explosive threat to open up these stout defenses. This is an under play on Friday night.
