Warriors vs. Thunder prediction odds, pick – 03/07/2026

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Warriors vs. Thunder prediction odds, pick – 03/07/2026

Rishabh Bhatnagar, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Sat, Mar 7, 2026 ·

4 min read

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Warriors vs. Thunder prediction odds, pick – 03/07/2026 appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

The Golden State Warriors head to Oklahoma City to face the defending champions after winning their last game against the Houston Rockets . However, they have multiple major injury concerns and take on a Thunder team that has won each of their last four games.

Oklahoma City enters Saturday night with a 49-15 record, already knocking on the door of its 50th win of the season, while Golden State sits at 32-30 and eighth in the West.Mark Daigneault's team has also won eight of its last 10 games, holding opponents to 106.5 points per game during that stretch. Meanwhile, Golden State has struggled for consistency, going 4-6 over its last 10 contests while allowing 116.3 points per game.

These teams have already met three times this season, and the last meeting was a lopsided 131-94 Thunder victory, fueled by a 30-point performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander . The following odds are based on coverage from DraftKings.

Warriors vs. Thunder Odds

Warriors: +9.5 (-110)Thunder: -9.5 (-110)

Over: 228.5 (-110)Under: 228.5 (-110)

Warriors vs. Thunder Key Injuries

Golden State remains heavily shorthanded entering this matchup . Stephen Curry is out with a knee injury. Jimmy Butler (ACL) is out for the season while Moses Moody (wrist) and Seth Curry (back) are sidelined as well.

Gary Payton II is questionable with an ankle issue. However, the potential return of Kristaps Porzingis gives them some reason for optimism.

The Thunder are relatively healthy. Jalen Williams is out with a hamstring injury, while Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) and Alex Caruso (hip) are both listed day-to-day. Thomas Sorber is out for the season with a knee injury.

Golden State Thunder

Stephen Curry (knee – OUT)

Jimmy Butler (ACL – OUT)

Moses Moody (wrist – OUT)

Seth Curry (back – OUT)

Gary Payton II (ankle – Questionable)

Kristaps Porzingis (illness – Questionable)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Jalen Williams (hamstring – OUT)

Isaiah Hartenstein (calf – Day-to-Day)

Alex Caruso (hip – Day-to-Day)

Thomas Sorber (knee – OUT)

Warriors vs. Thunder Betting Trends

Oklahoma City has a 34-9 record against Western Conference opponents. Recent head-to-head results also strongly favor Oklahoma City. The Thunder have already handled Golden State convincingly this season, including the 37-point blowout win in January. These are the key betting trends for this matchup:

The Thunder are 25-6 at home this season. The Warriors are 13-17 on the road.
Oklahoma City is 41-23 ATS overall, 18-13 ATS at home.
Golden State is 29-33 ATS overall, 13-17 ATS on the road.
The Thunder are 3-0 outright against the Warriors this season.
Oklahoma City has won 7 of its last 8 games.
The Warriors are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
The Under has hit in 2 of the 3 meetings between these teams this season.

With Shai-Gilgeous Alexander fit and firing, this one seems very straightforward on paper. However, led by the mercurial Draymond Green and with Porzingis expected to play, the Warriors can always spring a surprise.

Keys to Warriors vs. Thunder Matchup

The biggest challenge for Golden State will be finding enough offensive firepower without Stephen Curry. The Warriors have relied heavily on Brandin Podziemski , who has averaged 16.7 points over the last 10 games.

The Thunder also average 118.9 points per game while simultaneously limiting opponents to 43.6% shooting from the field. Much will depend on what kind of game the Thunder's offense has.

Golden State will need to be at their very best in order to steal the win from this one. Expect Draymond Green to get stuck in, but the Thunder are the obvious favorites to extend their run at home.

Warriors vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Golden State's system still produces efficient offense through ball movement and spacing, but without Curry, the Warriors lack the consistent scoring punch required to keep up with Oklahoma City's attack. We expect a low-scoring game considering the Warriors' injuries and pretty much a blowout for the current NBA champions.

Final Warriors-Thunder Prediction & Pick:Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 (-110); UNDER 228.5 (-110)

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