Washington Wizards GM Will Dawkins: NIL negatively impacts NBA Draft depth
More than 360 collegiate underclassmen entered their names into the 2021 NBA Draft. But, five years later, that number has plummeted to just 71 underclassmen going through this year’s draft process.
Of course, much of that decline is a direct result of the advent and subsequent growth of NIL, as student-athletes can legally monetize their name, image, and likeness while still in college. Outside of expected lottery picks, elite college basketball players can generally garner millions more by returning to school — or hitting the transfer portal — than they would as late first-round picks, let alone if they fall to the second round.
Washington Wizardsgeneral manager Will Dawkins, who owns the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming 2026 NBA Draft, opined on how NIL has “diluted” this year’s draft class during an appearance Tuesday on ESPN2’s coverage of the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago. Dawkins also brought up the NCAA’s expected passage of a new five-for-five eligibility rule that would allow athletes five years of eligibility beginning after they turn 19 years old or graduate from high school, whichever happens first.
“It’s something we’ve talked about in our general manager meeting, trying to get a better feel for what (the future) looks like. How (NIL) could potentially dilute this draft, but even in future drafts with the 5-for-5 rule that they’ve come out with. I think you saw (in) the middle of the first round this year, a good amount of guys went back to get financial stability in college and continue to develop for what they might deem is a weaker draft next year,” Dawkins said Tuesday on ESPN2. “I think there was some strategy (from the) agents on that end, but we’re really going to feel it in the second round with the guys that chose to go back to school.
“It’s going to be a little diluted this year, so it makes our work a little bit harder, but also opens an opportunity to make sure you’re scouting overseas and making sure you have stash candidates, things of that nature,” Dawkins concluded. “But NIL is real, it’s really impacting players. It’s impacting college basketball, making the game better, but it’s also impacting the depth of the NBA Draft.”
Case in point, former Wake Forest guard Juke Harris , the No. 1 overall transfer in the portal, is believed to have landed upwards of $4 million to transfer to Tennessee this offseason, per On3’s Pete Nakos . Harris withdrew from the NBA Draft before committing to the Vols last week. Florida forward Thomas Haugh made a similar move by returning to Gainesville, where he’s reportedly expected to receive more than $10 million in 2026-27 with a majority coming from third-party NIL deals, per CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander .
College basketball teams, much like their college football counterparts, continue to up the ante each offseason when it comes to NIL and revenue-sharing. Nakos reported last week that at least 25 Power Four programs are expected to have rosters topping $15 million, with at least 15 of those expected to exceed $20 million.
