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Week 1 FCS Football Preview & Predictions
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- Week 1 FCS Football Preview & Predictions
Tennessee Tech quarterback Jax Leatherwood (12) | Tennessee Tech Athletics
As I've done over the past few years, I'll preview the biggest games of the weekend and give my official predictions. Let's keep this season going and preview the biggest Week 1 games from across the FCS landscape.
2026 Prediction Record: 14-6 2022-25 Prediction Record: 540-175 (75.5%)
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No. 24 Western Carolina at Campbell
Kickoff:3:30 pm ET (FloSports)
Storylines To Watch:It's going to be an offensive shootout in Buise Creek on Saturday afternoon. Both of these teams rolled up over 500 yards of total offense and scored 45+ points in their season openers. We've talked about Western Carolina being a solid defense away from being a real factor in the SoCon race. There were some bright spots defensively under new defensive coordinator Nick Reveiz, but does that carry over to this game against an explosive Campbell offense?
Matchup To Watch:Which team will be able to consistently establish the run?
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One thing that caught my eye last week was how big a threat these two quarterbacks were in the rushing game. Lex Thomas led the Catamounts with 69 rushing yards, while Kamden Sixkiller led Campbell with 95 yards and two rushing scores. Neither team was able to consistently establish the downhill rushing game, which could be due to the success they had through the air, but it's something to monitor as we learn more about these teams in Week 1.
Possessions become extremely valuable in these potential high-scoring games, especially if one team can build an early lead. If either team can lean on the run and shorten the game, keeping the opposing offense on the sidelines, I think it'll give that team a very big advantage this weekend. It should be noted that WCU actually had some success against the run defensively last week, holding EKU to 2.2 yards per carry.
X-Factors:Trystan Anderson (Western Carolina, DE) & Charles Battaglia (Campbell, LB)
Battaglia looked like the best defensive player on the field for Campbell last weekend. He's a former All-NEC selection and lived up to that hype with a team-high 12 total tackles and also forced a crucial fumble, which helped Campbell extend its lead in the 4th quarter. Battaglia is going to need to have another big game against this explosive WCU offense if the Camels are going to pull out the win.
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ETSU was unable to make Sixkiller uncomfortable in the pocket, but Western Carolina actually did a solid job of getting to the quarterback last weekend. I like what I saw from Anderson off the edge, finishing with 1 TFL and 1 sack. He brought a ton of experience from Drake, where he started 19 games for the Bulldogs. This game may come down to which defense can make the key stop in the 4th quarter, which is where having someone like Anderson could give the Catamounts an advantage.
Prediction: Western Carolina (52-42)
No. 11 South Dakota at Northern Colorado
Kickoff:8 pm ET (ESPN+)
Storylines To Watch:Is the Austyn Modrzewski hype real? We are going to get another important data point this weekend as he leads the Coyotes into a sneaky road game against Northern Colorado. The redshirt freshman put up 304 passing yards, 6 passing TDs, 81 rushing yards, and an explosive 61-yard rushing TD to open the game. A lot of people dismissed his performance due to the opponent, but this will provide important experience for Modrzewski in his first road start.
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Matchup To Watch:Northern Colorado's rushing attack vs. South Dakota's front seven
It may seem repetitive, but I don't think I can overstate how important the run game will be for Northern Colorado. The Bears were extremely effective on the ground in Week 0, rushing for 259 yards on 5.6 yards per carry. Mathias Price is a real playmaker and could give USD's defense some issues if they don't tackle well. You also have quarterback Kenny Lueth, who is a real threat outside the pocket with his legs.
It's hard to have many takeaways from last week's game against CCSU, but the USD defense did allow just over 4.0 yards per carry. There are a lot of new faces on the defensive line, but I do think the Yotes have the advantage at linebacker. Wade Abrams and Gabriel Hardman give them the edge in this matchup after the duo combined for 17 tackles and 2 TFLs last week.
X-Factors:Charles Pierre Jr. (South Dakota, RB) & Kenny Lueth (Northern Colorado, QB)
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The Coyotes dominated this game on the ground last year, rushing for over 300 yards in the win. Charles Pierre Jr. missed that game with an injury, but he's one of the most explosive running backs in the country when he's healthy. He averaged 7.7 yards per carry in limited action last weekend, but I expect to see a heavy dose of Pierre, plus backup running back Carson Fletcher, on Saturday night in Greeley.
I mentioned Lueth's ability to be dangerous with his legs earlier, which is exactly why he's the X-factor for the Bears. He moved the chains 10 times with his legs, while also generating four explosive runs against Weber State. More importantly, he had zero turnover-worthy throws, which is going to be key this weekend. The Bears need Lueth to extend plays, generate some big plays, and protect the football. That's going to be one of the biggest keys for Northern Colorado to have a chance to win this game.
Prediction: South Dakota (45-24)
No. 25 West Florida at Central Arkansas
Kickoff:7 pm ET (ESPN+)
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Storylines To Watch:Both teams had impressive ranked wins last weekend, but I'm interested to see how West Florida responds after an emotional win in its first-ever Division I game. Can the Argos carry that momentum into Week 1? It'll be a much tougher task this weekend, especially on the ground against a very talented Central Arkansas team. Also, we've seen the Bears have some issues with consistency under head coach Nathan Brown. Which team will be able to build on its strong Week 0 performance?
Matchup To Watch:Ty'Ray Davis vs. Central Arkansas defense
The statistics really don't tell the whole story about Ty'Ray Davis' impact on West Florida's win in Week 0. He consistently extended plays in key moments, helped keep UWF's offense on schedule, and finished with 0 turnover-worthy throws. His presence in the plus-one run game was a big part of UWF's offensive success, but can he replicate that against a front seven that features some real playmakers like Trevion Traylor and Ashtyn Williams?
He's going to need to make those same plays against Central Arkansas this weekend. The Bears did an excellent job bottling up the run game and containing Julian Calvez in their first game. Davis is a bigger, more explosive athlete, but if the Bears can limit his legs and force him into mistakes, they are going to have a great chance to win this game.
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X-Factors:Byron Puryear (West Florida, DE) & Donovyn Omolo (Central Arkansas, QB)
There are always questions about how new Division I teams will be able to compete along the line of scrimmage, but the Argos actually outplayed Southern Illinois in the trenches last week. A big part of that was Byron Puryear, who had a dominant performance last Thursday. He finished the game with 7 tackles, 3 TFLs, and 1.5 sacks. The Bears were able to keep the pocket clean in Week 0; it'll be important to keep Puryear from disrupting Omolo and the passing attack on Saturday night.
Nobody else in the media space was higher on Omolo than I was this offseason. He exceeded those expectations in Week 0, throwing for 243 yards and 3 TDs, while adding 118 yards on the ground. UT Martin was never able to put any pressure on Omolo, but the Argos were consistently in the backfield last week, pressuring SIU on over 40% of their dropbacks. Can Omolo remain steady and effective under pressure? It'll be something to monitor, especially since UWF's defense did allow 22 points in the second half of last week's game, but also forced 3 INTs in key moments to secure the win.
Prediction: West Florida (23-20)
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No. 12 Tennessee Tech at Chattanooga
Kickoff:6 pm ET (ESPN+)
Storylines To Watch:It feels like fans and media are still trying to figure out if the preseason hype surrounding Tennessee Tech was justified. I didn't think the Golden Eagles played their best game last week, but they still found a way to defeat a talented Monmouth team by 24 points. I'm going to be curious to see if they are able to establish the run against Chattanooga's defense that held the Wolves to 38 rushing yards in Week 0.
Matchup To Watch:Tennessee Tech's defensive front vs. Chattanooga's rushing offense
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If the Mocs are going to have any chance at an upset, they are going to have to find a way to run the ball. Last week, their passing offense was average at best, but Kevin Lalin looked like a potential star. He led Chattanooga with 128 rushing yards and 1 TD, but can he replicate that production against a talented Tennessee Tech front seven?
The Golden Eagles are going to rotate a ton of bodies defensively; linebackers Greg Turner III and Kaleb Brown anchor the middle of this defense. Monmouth was able to find a bit of success between the tackles, which is something to monitor going into this matchup. If Chattanooga can't consistently move the chains and Tennessee Tech is able to pin its ears back and get after quarterback Battle Alberson, it's going to be a long night for the Mocs.
X-Factors:Qua Ashley (Tennessee Tech, RB) & Ashton Schumann (Chattanooga, WR)
Schumann was one of my favorite non-Division I transfers of this past offseason. He's a former Division II All-American and just finds a way to get open and make plays. He was clearly the No. 1 option in Chattanooga's passing attack last week, leading the team with 4 receptions for 100 yards and 1 TD. The Mocs are going to have to make some throws in key moments to win this game. It may come down to whether Schumann is able to create separation and win 1-on-1 matchups against Tennessee Tech's secondary.
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Ashley is the definition of an X-factor for Tennessee Tech's offense. He's extremely dangerous in open space, plus brings real upside as a receiving threat out of the backfield. Both of his receptions last week went for touchdowns, plus in his eight carries, Ashley forced four missed tackles against Monmouth. The Mocs are going to have to know where Ashley is at all times on Saturday night, especially as the Golden Eagles look to find creative ways to get him the ball.
Prediction: Tennessee Tech (35-17)
Quick-Hit Week 1 Predictions:
Delaware State 35, No. 17 William & Mary 31
Last week, my upset special hit with UCA's upset over UT Martin. I'm done overlooking the Hornets and head coach DeSean Jackson, so give me Delaware State to pull off the upset on the road. DSU knocked off a talented Stony Brook team last week, finding ways to turn explosive plays into points despite a late comeback push from the Seawolves. The Tribe pulled off one of the biggest upsets of Week 0, knocking off Villanova with a stunning comeback in the final minute of the game.
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My concern here is that William & Mary was outplayed for nearly 50 minutes of the game. Betting on explosive plays is always risky, but that's how Delaware State has thrived over the past two seasons. The Tribe also allowed over 7.0 yards per play last week, which is something that I expect the Hornets to take advantage of. Keep an eye on quarterback Ui Ale, who had an impressive performance in his first start at DSU, recording over 340 yards of total offense.
No. 21 South Carolina State 27, Florida A&M 17
South Carolina State made headlines with an 87-point rout of Savannah State last weekend. The Bulldogs will face a much tougher test this weekend as Florida A&M looks to make a statement with a Top 25 upset in Quinn Gray's first season as head coach.
The Rattlers looked horrible offensively against an overmatched Division II opponent last week, averaging only 4.6 yards per play. This one could get out of hand if the Rattlers can't find any offensive consistency. The Bulldogs might have the most talented defense in HBCU football, headlined by three All-MEAC selections on the defensive line. I think FAMU's offense takes a step forward, but it's not enough to beat the Bulldogs in Miami on Sunday.
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Southern Utah 38, Weber State 20
The Thunderbirds took Montana down to the wire last weekend, while Weber State escaped with a one-point win over Northern Colorado. There are some questions surrounding the health of Weber State quarterback Devin Brown, but this game will be decided on the other side of the ball. If the Wildcats can't stop SUU's potent rushing attack, then this game won't be competitive. The Wildcats allowed nearly 6 yards per carry last weekend. I think Will Burns and Floyd Chalk are going to be too much for Weber State's defense on Saturday night.
Prairie View A&M 28, Texas Southern 17
Texas Southern put together a remarkable comeback victory over NCCU in Week 0, while Prairie View A&M ran into the buzzsaw that was Tarleton State's offense. Everything hinges on Texas Southern's ability to run the ball. The Tigers were dominant on the ground last weekend as Athean Renfro Jr. averaged 9.1 yards per carry. I don't see the Tigers having that much success against a stout Prairie View A&M defense, which is going to put Cam McCoy into uncomfortable passing situations. I also think the Panthers are the more complete team on both sides of the ball, leading to a nice rebound win.
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Richmond 27, Howard 10
Both of these teams are looking to carry their momentum from Week 0 into this game. I don't love the matchup for Howard in this one. The Bison really struggled to run the ball effectively against Alabama A&M last week, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry. That's not going to be a recipe for success against a dominant Richmond defense that suffocated Bucknell, holding the Bison to 1.1 yards per carry. I expect the Spiders to dominate this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Other Notable Week 1 Predictions:
No. 7 UC Davis 42, San Diego 14
No. 10 Lehigh 31, Georgetown 13
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No. 13 Stephen F. Austin 34, East Texas A&M 23
No. 18 Villanova 35, Bucknell 24
Wofford 31, Gardner-Webb 20
Colgate 20, Holy Cross 17
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/fcs as Week 1 FCS Football Preview & Predictions .
