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Week 7 FCS Football Preview & Predictions
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- Week 7 FCS Football Preview & Predictions
South Dakota State Jackrabbits running back Josiah Johnson (22) | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
As I've done over the past few years, I'll preview the biggest games of the weekend and give my official predictions. Let's keep this season going and preview the biggest Week 7 games from across the FCS landscape.
2026 Prediction Record: 82-28 2022-25 Prediction Record: 540-175 (75.5%)
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No. 19 Northern Iowa at No. 6 Youngstown State
How real is the Northern Iowa hype? The Panthers have won back-to-back games over Top 10 opponents, but is it because UNI has the pieces to be a real MVFC contender? Or did the Panthers capitalize on mistakes by two teams that were overrated going into those matchups? I think we'll get our answer this weekend.
This offense only generated 144 total yards last week, averaging 2.5 yards per play. Despite that, the Panthers forced five turnovers and North Dakota's offense couldn't effectively move the ball the entire game. Can the Panthers replicate that formula against one of the most effective, efficient offenses in college football? It's going to be their biggest challenge of the season, especially since UNI's offense hasn't shown the ability to win a shootout.
We've seen plenty of chaos across the FCS this season. Will Youngstown State be able to sustain the same level of success we've seen over the past two weeks? The Penguins have also defeated two Top 25 opponents in their past three games, defeating Southern Illinois and South Dakota, each by 12 or more points.
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One of the biggest keys has been Youngstown State's defensive line, which has been one of the more impressive defensive fronts in the country over the past three games. The Penguins have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in back-to-back games, while also recording 23 TFLs and 9 sacks in their last three games. UNI is going to have to find a way to stop Michael Wells, Ebony Curry Jr., and Jordan Pritchard-Sewell, who have combined for 16.5 TFLs and 7.5 sacks for the Penguins.
Matchups To Watch:UNI's Defense vs. Youngstown State's Offense
I usually like to focus this section on a specific matchup, but the Panthers are going to have no shot to win this game if Youngstown State is able to move the ball effectively. In their past two games, UNI's defense has held their opponents to under 4.6 yards per play. Youngstown State's offense has averaged more than 6.0 yards per play against every single FCS opponent this season.
The strength of this UNI defense has been the secondary, which has allowed the fewest yards per attempt (5.9) in the MVFC. The Panthers do an excellent job of keeping the lid on opposing offenses, making them settle underneath, then rallying to the ball and making the open-field tackle. The issue? Youngstown State's offense is going to be just fine methodically moving the ball down the field.
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Beau Brungard has been lethal this season, completing 73.3% of his passes for 1,821 passing yards, 17 passing TDs, and only 4 INTs. He's also leading the Penguins with 567 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs, which is something this UNI defense hasn't seen. They also haven't been good against the run, allowing the second-highest yards per carry (5.1) in the MVFC.
The Panthers are going to need a big game from their group of talented linebackers. John Powers leads the defense with 42 total tackles, while Kolben Miller has been disruptive with 4 TFLs and 2 sacks, along with 27 tackles. Keep an eye on Braden McShane, who made some crucial plays in the upset win over North Dakota last weekend.
I just don't have any faith in this UNI offense to keep up with Youngstown State's offense. The Penguins aren't going to make many mistakes, which is going to put all the pressure on the Panthers to win a high-scoring game. The Penguins also have one of the most effective red zone offenses in the country, so can the Panthers limit them to field goals when they do drive the field? I hate this matchup for the Panthers, so I'm going to take the Penguins to win this one by a few scores at home.
Prediction: Youngstown State (42-20)
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No. 1 South Dakota State at No. 11 North Dakota
Key Storylines:Will North Dakota have a healthy Jerry Kaminski at quarterback? It's a massive question heading into this Top 15 MVFC battle in the Alerus Center. There is growing optimism that Kaminsky can play, but even if he does start the game, is he fully healthy? Even at 60-75%, Kaminski looks like a significantly better option than Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson, who has really struggled in his limited action.
Regardless of who gets the start at quarterback, the Fighting Hawks better find a way to run the ball. That's easier said than done against a South Dakota State defense that is holding opponents to 3.6 yards per carry. Charles Langama leads the North Dakota offense with 454 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs, but also keep an eye on Matt Lawson, who has added 297 yards and 3 scores.
There have also been rumors that the Fighting Hawks could be set to get Lance Rucker back this weekend, but he wasn't listed on the initial depth chart. We know those are very unreliable at the FCS level, but his return could be huge for the North Dakota defensive front, which faces their toughest challenge of the year.
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The Jacks have allowed the fewest sacks in the MVFC (5), while North Dakota ranks 2nd in the conference with 15 sacks. If Rucker isn't available, the Fighting Hawks need a big game from Braden Mohr, who leads the team with 9 TFLs and 7.5 sacks.
On the other side, South Dakota State has looked like the best team in FCS football this season. The Jackrabbits are undefeated against FCS competition, with wins over Illinois State and Youngstown State. Now off a bye week, the Jacks are set to get starting quarterback Chase Mason back, who has missed the past two games with an injury.
Matchup To Watch:SDSU's Rushing Offense vs. North Dakota's Rushing Defense
I've already highlighted the importance of the rushing attack for the Fighting Hawks, but nothing else really matters if North Dakota's defense can't limit this elite SDSU run game. The Jackrabbits are averaging an MVFC-high 291.8 rushing yards per game and 7.0 yards per carry. No other team in the conference is above 5.7 yards per carry, which further highlights the dominance of this team's rushing game.
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Luckily, the Fighting Hawks lead the MVFC in rushing defense, holding opponents to 105.9 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. They've held every FCS opponent to under 121 rushing yards this season, while the Jacks have rushed for 230 yards or more against every FCS team they've faced.
South Dakota State has one of the deepest running back rooms in the country, which is led by Josiah Johnson with 680 rushing yards and 7 TDs. The Jacks will also lean on James Basinger and Corey Blair Jr., who both are averaging over 7.8 yards per carry and have combined for 9 rushing TDs. I'm not sure if it'll be a big part of the offense, but Chase Mason can also be a threat with his legs, which is something to watch on Saturday.
My biggest concern here is that North Dakota's offense remains ineffective, especially without, or even with a limited, Jerry Kaminski. That could lead to a ton of snaps for North Dakota's defense, which is a real recipe for disaster on Saturday. Even on the road, I don't see the Fighting Hawks being able to do enough offensively to keep this game competitive. I think this could be a slugfest before halftime, but the Jackrabbits wear down the UND defense and pull away in the second half.
Prediction: South Dakota State (34-14)
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Quick-Hit Week 7 Predictions:
No. 7 Montana 45, Idaho 28
There are probably a ton of people who are circling this game as a potential upset, but I'm not sure this game will be very competitive. Are the Vandals dangerous offensively? Yes, especially when Joshua Wood is locked in and able to make off-schedule plays outside the pocket. Unfortunately, this rushing defense is absolutely atrocious, and that's something Montana should be able to take full advantage of on Saturday. I expect another All-American performance from Eli Gillman as the Griz handle business against the Vandals.
No. 10 Lamar 27, Southeastern Louisiana 20
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This is a game that feels like an upset special, especially if you study SLU's history under head coach Frank Scelfo. Regardless of the history, the Cardinals are playing elite football right now, especially as Parker Jenkins and Jojo Uga continue to make plays on the ground. I don't believe this SLU offense is balanced enough to threaten Lamar's defense, which has played very well, allowing 5.1 yards per play. This one will be closer than some people expect, but Lamar gets the tough road win in Hammond.
No. 21 Idaho State 34, Weber State 24
I've gone back and forth on this game all week, initially picking Weber State for the upset, but I just can't overlook the issues with Weber State's defense. Idaho State hasn't played its best football, especially last weekend, but the Bengals have been solid defensively, especially through the air, holding opponents to 5.8 yards per attempt. Jordan Cooke has to limit his turnovers, but I think the Bengals are going to overwhelm Weber State's secondary with their offensive weapons and get a much-needed rebound win on the road.
No. 25 Yale 28, Rhode Island 24
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Entering the year, everyone thought this would be one of the biggest non-conference games of the year, but Rhode Island has limped to a 3-3 start without quarterback Devin Farrell. The Rams are going to have to find a way to slow down Dante Reno and this Yale passing attack, which has averaged 330.2 yards per game. Even with their record, the Rams still have some talent on this team, and I think coming off a bye week, they are able to hang around and keep this one close. I still think Reno and the Bulldogs are too much for the Rams offensively, which will be the key to getting the win.
Abilene Christian 24, North Alabama 20
This has become a massive UAC battle between two teams looking to remain undefeated in conference play. The Lions have exceeded all expectations this season behind a stout defense, which leads the UAC in yards per play allowed (4.2). The Wildcats had to navigate a brutal schedule to start the year, but are 2-0 in UAC play and have won 3 of their last 4 games. This is going to be an absolute slugfest, but I have a bit more trust in Tucker Parks at the quarterback spot, which leads to ACU's offense being able to make 1-2 more key plays late to win this game on the road.
Other Notable Week 7 Predictions:
No. 2 Tarleton State 38, Central Arkansas 17
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No. 4 Lehigh 31, Cornell 14
No. 5 Montana State 38, Eastern Washington 20
No. 13 Illinois State 23, Southern Illinois 20
No. 14 UC Davis 52, Southern Utah 42
No. 23 Monmouth 31, New Hampshire 21
Incarnate Word 38, UTRGV 31
Gardner-Webb 17, UT Martin 14
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/fcs as Week 7 FCS Football Preview & Predictions .
