If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google .
The Western Michigan Broncos take on the Toledo Rockets in Toledo, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on CBS Sports Network.
Toledo is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -172. The total is set at 45.5 points.
Here's my Western Michigan vs. Toledo predictionand college football pick for Saturday, October 24, 2026.
Western Michigan vs. Toledo Pick: Western Michigan ML +140
My Toledo vs. Western Michigan best bet is on the Broncos to win outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Download the Action Network app now for more NCAAF picks and analysis!
Western Michigan vs Toledo point spread: Toledo -3.5 (-106 ), W. Michigan +3.5 (-114)
Western Michigan vs Toledo over/under: 45.5 (-115o / -108u)
W. Michigan vs Toledo moneyline: W. Michigan +140, Toledo -172
Western Michigan walks into the Glass Bowl unbeaten in MAC play, and the Broncos have built that record the way a program with a physical identity does. Last Saturday at Central Michigan , they led 21-0 after three quarters behind Jalen Buckley, who ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns while the team piled up 224 rushing yards, and held on to win 21-14 after Central Michigan scored twice late.
Broc Lowry only needed to throw eight times, completing five for 48 yards and a touchdown to Nate Levicki. A week earlier, he looked like a different quarterback in a 38-7 win over Kent State , throwing for 257 yards and three touchdowns while Buckley added 105 on the ground.
Western Michigan's defense has been the foundation. The Broncos have allowed about 17 points per game and held Central Michigan's Angel Flores to 162 passing yards despite 117 yards on the ground from him. The one frustration for bettors is that the Broncos have been a poor number to back lately.
Last week's win came as a 7.5-point favorite and did not cover, and it follows narrow wins at Rice and Buffalo that also fell short of the spread. The Broncos are 3-4 against the spread overall.
Toledo is a better team than that record suggests in some ways and more fragile in others. The Rockets averaged 36 points per game through their first seven, but a good chunk of that came in a 63-10 win over Central Connecticut State and a 49-48 shootout with Temple , and the one time a defense really leaned on them, Buffalo handed them a 23-8 loss at the Glass Bowl as an 18.5-point favorite.
They answered with a convincing 34-14 win at Eastern Michigan , where John Alan Richter threw for 288 yards and a touchdown, Autavius Ison ran for 104 yards and a score, and the defense piled up six sacks and nine tackles for loss.
Toledo is 3-3-1 against the spread this season, and its games have gone over the total in five of seven, which makes this week's 45.5, the lowest number the Rockets have seen all season, stand out.
This is a strong fit for the "Early Road Redemption Conference System":
Western Michigan is a conference road team, it failed to cover in its previous game, and the number puts it well within striking distance at +3.5. The 45.5 total is low, which favors a tight game, and the weather is as calm as a late-October noon kickoff gets, with a high near 64 and a light southeast breeze of around 5 mph.
The only part that is a stretch is the "early season" label. Week 8 sits at the back end of that window, and the Broncos aren't coming off a bad performance so much as an underwhelming cover. Although the underlying logic checks out, the market is discounting a visitor after a poor betting result, which is exactly what is happening here.
The common opponent is the most useful data point. Western Michigan went to Buffalo and won by three, while Toledo lost to the same Bulls by 15 at home, so the market is leaning on Toledo's offensive numbers more than its worst game. A 45.5 total tells you the books expect a defensive, low-possession game, and that script favors the team that can run the ball and shorten the clock.
Buckley and a rushing attack that just piled up 224 yards on the road can keep Richter on the sideline, and with a defense allowing about 17 points per game, Western Michigan can stay in front of an offense that managed eight points the last time it ran into a defense that dictated terms.
In a game this tight, the +140 price on the outright win pays well for a team that has already won three one-score games this season.
Pick: Western Michigan ML +140
