Why Celtics deserve asterisk after falling short of almost 100% foolproof 40-20 NBA championship rule

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Why Celtics deserve asterisk after falling short of almost 100% foolproof 40-20 NBA championship rule

Daniel Donabedian, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Thu, Feb 26, 2026 ·

6 min read

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Why Celtics deserve asterisk after falling short of almost 100% foolproof 40-20 NBA championship rule appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

After suffering a brutal 103-84 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night, the Boston Celtics were disqualified from meeting the 40-20 rule, which argues that in order to win an NBA championship, a team must win 40 games before it drops 20 during the regular season. The fact that this theory comes from 13-time NBA champion Phil Jackson should be proof enough of its validity. If it isn't, consider that 40 of the last 44 NBA champions have all passed the 40-20 threshold.

Since the Celtics failed to abide by Jackson's almost foolproof rule, are they doomed? History says probably, but there's some important context that should earn the Green Team a pass this season.

The Jayson Tatum factor

It took the Celtics 58 games to reach 20 losses, and star forward Jayson Tatum suited up for zero of those contests. The six-time All-Star and 2024 NBA champion is still rehabbing from a ruptured Achilles he suffered back in May, yet there's reason to believe he could return to play before the regular season wraps up .

Without one of their franchise cornerstones, the Celtics still nearly managed to appease Jackson's 40-20 rule. That's a feat in itself, as the C's were left for dead by many pundits and preseason projections.

Instead of snoozing through a gap year, the Celtics have fully recovered from their offseason losses — including centers Al Horford , Kristaps Porzingis , and Luke Kornet as well as guard Jrue Holiday — and continued to develop homegrown talent.

Almost every young Celtic, ranging from rookie Hugo Gonzalez to third-year wing Jordan Walsh , has improved, and most of the veterans have done the same. While reigning Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard and starting guard Derrick White haven't had career years (although, they're still producing at a high level), Celtics star Jaylen Brown is playing some of the best basketball of his life .

In his 10th year in the NBA, Brown is setting new career-highs in points, rebounds, and assists per game. His increase in usage in Tatum's absence has undoubtedly boosted his numbers, but, statistics aside, the 2026 Eastern Conference All-Star starter is playing winning basketball.

So, even without Tatum, the rest of the Celtics have stepped up and captured an impressive 38-20 record almost 60 games into the season. If they beat the Nuggets, they could've hit the 40-20 rule with an easier matchup against the Brooklyn Nets on Friday night.

And while that hypothetical no longer matters, what the Celtics could look like with Tatum does. The rehabbing star has been "a full go" in 5-on-5 team scrimmages per NBA insider Shams Charania, meaning a comeback in March isn't out of the question. His presence on an already overachieving Celtics squad would undoubtedly help them contend in a tough, but winnable East.

If Tatum was healthy, it's pretty safe to say the Celtics would've been eligible for the 40-20 rule this season alongside the Oklahoma City Thunder , San Antonio Spurs , and Detroit Pistons . Moreover, a championship team winning without their best player isn't unheard of.

What the Milwaukee Bucks did without Giannis Antetokounmpo

During the shortened 2020-21 campaign, the Milwaukee Bucks did not meet the 40-20 rule. Like the Celtics, they were a few games shy, yet that didn't stop them from defeating the Phoenix Suns in six games to win the 2021 NBA Finals.

Prior to the Bucks' first championship in 50 years, star center Giannis Antetokounmpo injured his knee in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals and was forced to exit the blowout loss early. Fortunately, he didn't sustain a major injury, however, he did sit for Games 5 and 6 of the ECF versus the Atlanta Hawks with the series tied 2-2.

That doesn't mean the Bucks buckled, though. They won both games by double digits without their star player, which is somewhat reminiscent of how the Celtics have been able to operate sans Tatum.

Of course, Antetokounmpo wasn't injured as seriously or for as long as Tatum, but this example does prove that a team that comes up short of the 40-20 threshold can still win it all without having their go-to guy at full strength.

Seeding and the eye test

Despite the 2020-21 Bucks losing 24 times before earning 40 wins, they did meet another potential championship qualifier. They were the no. 3 seed, and NBA history shows that nearly every champion has been a three-seed or higher.

The only exceptions are the 1968-1969 Celtics, who were the no. 4 seed, and the 1994-1995 Houston Rockets , who were a no. 6 seed. Both of those teams were fresh off a championship from the seasons prior, and if there's a team with championship pedigree in the East, it's the Celtics.

They may not be defending a title like the aforementioned teams, but they did capture a championship in 2024 with Tatum, Brown, and head coach Joe Mazzulla at the helm. Those pieces haven't left and although the Celtics violated the 40-20 law, they do comply with the seeding stipulation.

Boston is currently in second place in the East with a 2.5 game lead over the third-place New York Knicks . The Celtics aren't cemented in that spot, but they have resided there a lot recently. Plus, more importantly, they've played some of their best basketball as of late, winning nine of their last 10 games before falling to the Nuggets on the second night of a back-to-back.

Regardless of unofficial championship prerequisites, the 2025-26 Celtics simply pass the eye test. They're fourth in net rating and survived some early struggles to become a top-five team in the NBA this season. They crash the boards hard, defend well, and can't be taken lightly, especially when Brown has it going.

Add Tatum into the mix and the Celtics are legitimate contenders. Not quite title favorites, but contenders — no matter what Jackson posits.

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