Why Lance McCullers Jr. is most to blame for Astros’ awful start to 2026 season

Story by

Garrett Kerman, ClutchPoints

Sat, May 2, 2026 at 2:22 PM UTC ·

4 min read

Why Lance McCullers Jr. is most to blame for Astros’ awful start to 2026 season appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

The Houston Astros entered 2026 with legitimate playoff aspirations. A deep lineup anchored by Yordan Alvarez , a revamped rotation, and a full-strength roster, on paper, all the pieces were in place for a bounce-back season. Instead, Houston sits at 12-21, tied for last place in the American League West and on pace for a 59-103 finish. The culprits are many, a bullpen leaking runs, defenders who can’t stay healthy, and a roster that simply lacks the depth to withstand the injury chaos it’s endured. But if you want to find the player most responsible for this nightmare start, look no further than right-hander Lance McCullers Jr.

Before we get into the numbers, let’s talk about what McCullers means to this team. A two-time World Series champion and former All-Star, he helped define the Astros’ dynasty era and became one of the most beloved figures in Houston baseball history. Nobody wanted this redemption story to work more than Astros fans. But sentimentality doesn’t win games in May, and McCullers’ 2026 performance has been a stunning step backward at the worst possible time.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

After a tantalizing Opening Day performance, seven innings of one-run ball, and nine strikeouts against Boston , it looked like the old McCullers was back. That start papered over nearly two years of arm problems and a forgettable 2025 campaign in which he went 2-5 with a 6.51 ERA over 16 appearances. Astros fans exhaled. The ace was back.

Then April happened. McCullers posted a brutal 7.77 ERA across his four April starts before cleaning things up slightly in his final outing of the month. Through six starts on the season, he owns a 6.32 ERA, has walked 17 batters in just 31.1 innings, and has given up 24 earned runs, numbers that belong to a pitcher fighting for his professional life, not a veteran anchor expected to stabilize a struggling rotation. His WHIP sits at 1.40, and opponents are hitting to an OPS of .776 against him.

What makes McCullers’ struggles so damaging isn’t just the runs he allows, it’s the when. In his April 11 outing, he lasted just 4.1 innings while surrendering six earned runs. In his April 18 start, he threw only five innings before being yanked with four runs on the board. Short starts are killing this team. Astros starters failed to complete five innings in eight of their first 14 games, a grueling trend that has overworked an already fragile bullpen. When your designated rotation anchor can’t give you quality length, the chaos trickles down to every other arm on the staff.

A Team Built Around a False Foundation

The Astros’ pitching problems are well documented. Hunter Brown , Cristian Javier , Josh Hader , and Tatsuya Imai have all spent time on the injured list, robbing Houston of multiple impact arms at once. But here’s the thing, even with all those injuries accounted for, the organization structured its 2026 rotation with the expectation that McCullers would be a reliable No. 2 or 3. Brown was supposed to keep the team together, give them some experience, and eat up innings while he healed so the bullpen could get some rest.

He hasn’t done that. And because he hasn’t, the entire pitching ecosystem has collapsed. Houston currently owns the worst ERA in the majorsl, sitting north of 6.00, more than eight-tenths of a run worse than any other team in the league. The offense, to its enormous credit, has done everything possible to keep the Astros afloat. Houston leads the American League with 5.21 runs per game and owns a 118 wRC+, good for fourth in baseball. The pitching has undone all of it.

To be fair, McCullers is not the only reason this team has been awful. A last-place bullpen ERA, an injury list that reads like a hospital ward, and 25th-ranked defense in runs saved all deserve scrutiny. But when a veteran with an $85 million contract in its final year is supposed to be your rotation’s foundation, and he can’t stay healthy or effective, the entire team suffers.

McCullers is 32 years old, and this is the final season of the deal he signed in 2022. He has spoken candidly about the uncertainty surrounding his future, hinting that 2026 may be his last chapter in professional baseball. That context makes this season feel even more consequential. Right now, though, the story he’s writing isn’t the redemption arc anyone hoped for. The Astros needed their veteran ace to show up. Instead, he’s been a significant part of why Houston is drowning.