Why Michigan basketball is a clear March Madness contender

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Why Michigan basketball is a clear March Madness contender

Bryan Logan, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Thu, Jan 29, 2026 ·

6 min read

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It has been over thirty years since Michigan won a national championship. Now, the Wolverines are one of the top teams in the nation , and look poised to make a run at the title this year.

Michigan has not won a national championship since 1988-89, and would be the runner-up in 1991-92 and 1992-93. Still, there have been ups and downs for the program since then. From 1998-99 through 2007-08, they did not have a single NCAA tournament berth. Since then, they have made the tournament 12 times, but have just one Final Four run, finishing as the runner-up in 2012-13.

Michigan is on pace for its best regular season ever. They are 19-1 on the season and 9-1 in conference play. That includes wins over Auburn, Gonzaga, USC, and Nebraska. Meanwhile, the Wolverines are one of the top-scoring teams in the nation and have all the tools to make a run in the tournament, making it a clear contender this year.

Dusty May is a winner

© Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

March Madness success is not always easy. For example, Mark Few is second in NCAA history in win percentage, winning over 83 percent of the time. Still, that drops to 63.7 percent in the NCAA Tournament. Dusty May has shown himself to be a winner in building programs and a winner in the tournament. His first head coaching job was at Florida Atlantic. FAU became a Division I program in the 1992-93 season. From 1992-92, through 2017-18, the season before May arrived, FAU was 266-501 with one NCAA tournament appearance and one NIT berth.

May went 118-66 at FAU and did not have a single losing season. Further, he brought them to the NCAA tournament twice. The first was in 2022-23. That year, FAU was 35-4, won Conference-USA, and earned a nine-seed in the East Regional. They defeated Memphis in the first round and then 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson, who had upset Purdue, in the second round. While the Owls may have gotten lucky to play a 16-seed in the second round, they took out four-seed Tennessee and three-seed Kansas State on their way to the Final Four.

They faced San Diego State in the Final Four, and led by seven at the half. They were under a second away from making the National Championship, but Lamont Butler of San Diego State hit a miracle jumper to win the game for SDSU.

May has also done a great job of quickly resurrecting and building this Michigan program. In his two years at Michigan thus far, he is 46-11. He also made the NCAA tournament and the Sweet Sixteen in his first season. In the final two years under Juwan Howard , they missed the tournament both times and won just 26 games, a mark May eclipsed in one season with the Wolverines. May is a winner, and he can win in March.

Michigan is elite on defense

In the last 20 seasons, 19 of the national champions have been ranked in the top 21 of KenPom's offensive rankings and top 31 of the defensive rankings. Michigan is one of the teams that fit this mold. Michigan is currently the tenth-ranked offense in KenPom's rankings, while sitting second on defense. The only better defense in the nation is Michigan State, but Michigan State is also 43rd on offense this year.

Overall, the Wolverines are second in average scoring margin, while also sitting 11th in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. Michigan is 103rd in opponent turnovers per game, but it also does a great job of shutting down passing lanes. Michigan also forces bad shots. They are first in the nation in opponent shooting efficiency this year, and they shut down teams in the second half. While Michigan is 104th in opponent points per first half, they are 33rd in opponent points per second half.

They also dominate inside. Michigan is second in the nation in opponent two-point percentage, while sitting seventh in blocks per game. They have three players with over a block per game. Aday Mara leads the way with 2.6 blocks per game, while Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. both have over a block per game.

The best aspect of the defense is their ability on the glass. They have three players averaging over seven rebounds per game, with Johnson, Mara, and Lendeborg. Michigan is second in the nation in defensive rebounds per game and also 107th in offensive rebounds. They are also ninth in opponent defensive rebounds per game. Overall, they are sixth in rebounds per game.

If you add in the fact that Michigan is fourth in the nation in points per game and sixth in effective field goal percentage, this Michigan team is difficult to attack.

The road to Indianapolis is clear for the Wolverines

The Wolverines are going to be a high seed in the NCAA tournament. Michigan is currently projected to get a number one seed , likely in the Midwest Region, which would place them in Chicago for the second weekend of the tournament. Not only does that put them in a great situation to make a run to the championship, but surviving the Big Ten gauntlet helps as well.

Michigan already defeated Nebraska, which was undefeated heading into the game. They also have wins over USC, Ohio State, and Indiana, which could all be tournament-bound teams from the Big Ten. Beyond the Big Ten schedule, they have defeated Gonzaga, a potential three-seed, by 40, plus they defeated Auburn, a potential two-seed, by 30.

If Michigan can survive the rest of the schedule, it will be one of the most tested teams in the nation and prepared to run the road to Indianapolis. Michigan still has two games against Michigan State, a road trip to Ohio State, Purdue, and Illinois, plus a game at home against Duke. Surviving these tests will make them one of the top teams in the nation, if not the best.

Michigan will have an easier path to the Final Four than the rest of its schedule, and that is going to give it the ability to make a run. Everything is in front of Michigan, and they have every tool and experience to be a contender in March.

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