Why Mitch Marner must win Conn Smythe if Golden Knights capture Stanley Cup

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Why Mitch Marner must win Conn Smythe if Golden Knights capture Stanley Cup

Garrett Kerman, ClutchPoints

Sat, May 30, 2026 ·

4 min read

The Numbers Tell the Story

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Forget the narrative for a moment and let the statistics do the talking. Marner leads the entire 2026 NHL playoffs, not just the Golden Knights, not just the Western Conference, but every skater in the entire league, with 21 points (7 goals, 14 assists) in 15 games. He entered the postseason as a +6,600 long shot to win the Conn Smythe Trophy and has turned himself into the dominant favorite.

That 21-point total already surpasses his previous postseason best, and the Stanley Cup Final hasn't even started yet. His plus-minus stands at +12, the best mark on the Golden Knights roster. He has been the engine that drove Vegas through the Utah Mammoth in the first round, a tough Anaheim Ducks squad in Round 2, and then a sweep of the Presidents' Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Final, a series in which Colorado was held to just seven total goals.

The Golden Knights outscored the Avalanche 14-7 across those four games, and Marner's four points in the series, including three assists, helped fuel the offensive firepower.

The betting markets have caught on accordingly. Marner holds a 37% implied probability at Kalshi to win the Conn Smythe, ahead of Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen at 33% and Golden Knights center Jack Eichel at just 10%. At BetMGM, his +175 odds carry a 36.4% implied win probability, barely edging the competition. For context, he began the playoffs at +6,600, a 100-to-1 shot that now stands as the runaway favorite.

A Redemption Story Hockey Deserves

The numbers are elite. But the story behind them is what makes this Conn Smythe case truly undeniable. Marner spent nine seasons as one of the most skilled, and most scrutinized, players in the game. He amassed 741 points in 657 regular-season games with Toronto, good for fifth all-time in Maple Leafs history, and led his team in playoff points with 63 in 70 career postseason games. Yet the playoff exits piled up, the narrative hardened, and "can't win with him" became the four-word refrain that followed him everywhere.

He was the headliner of the 2025 free agency class specifically because he wanted to chase the Cup in a different city, and Vegas was his preferred destination. In an honest moment after the Avalanche series clincher, Marner acknowledged the journey, telling reporters it had been through "some dark times in hockey" to reach this point.

For a player who has carried that weight for nearly a decade, this Stanley Cup run is the ultimate answer to every doubter. Reaching the Final in his first year away from Toronto, while leading the entire league in playoff scoring, is a storyline that transcends statistics.

Why Marner Wins Over Eichel and the Rest

Teammate Jack Eichel has been excellent. The Golden Knights center sits second on the team with 18 points (2 goals, 16 assists) through 16 games, with a team-best 16 assists. His playmaking from the center position is the perfect complement to Marner's style. But while Eichel's totals are impressive, they operate in the shadow of Marner's production, Marner holds a three-point lead on Eichel and a six-point lead on every other playoff skater in the league.

ESPN's Conn Smythe polling had Marner neck-and-neck with Andersen for the top spot before the Conference Finals concluded. Now, with Andersen's Hurricanes still alive and Marner's Golden Knights resting and ready for the Final, the gap has only grown. Eichel deserves recognition. So does Andersen. But the Conn Smythe is reserved for the player most valuable to his team in the postseason, and through three rounds, no one has been more valuable to any team in the NHL than Mitch Marner has been to the Vegas Golden Knights .

If this team wins the Cup, the trophy vote should be unanimous.