Why NHL Shots on Goal Betting Is Broken and What Bettors Need to Know

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NHL shots-on-goal markets have become one of the most volatile betting markets on the NHL odds board, and not for the reasons you’d expect.

As the National Hockey League tightens how SOG are recorded, bettors are left navigating a stat that can change mid-game or after the final horn.

With save percentages dropping and scoring decisions growing more subjective, the gap between what happens on the ice and what’s recorded is creating real risk in SOG betting markets.

Why NHL shots-on-goal betting has become more volatile

How shots on goal in the National Hockey League are officially recorded has become a touchy subject in the betting and fantasy communities. Over the last couple of seasons, it feels like the league has tightened up SOG scoring, with more in-game corrections than ever.

You could be celebrating an Over 2.5 SOG ticket, then look 10 minutes later in the NHL app and see your player back down to 1 SOG. It’s happened to every single person who has dabbled in those markets.

It’s not just bettors noticing — goalies are, too. Routine saves aren’t always being recorded, and that’s showing up in declining save percentages across the league:

• 2020–21: .908

• 2021–22: .907

• 2022–23: .904

• 2023–24: .903

• 2024–25: .900

• 2025–26: .896

Even Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger has taken note :

“They just take shots away that are shots on goal. There are probably three a game. If you multiply that by 50 games, that’s like having five more shutouts that they’re taking away.”

Some argue that shooting is down league-wide. I’d push back — it looks more like shots are being taken off the board, which tracks, as most bettors are on Overs and some books only offer Over lines. Scorekeepers can remove a shot if they believe it would have missed the net, which adds a layer of subjectivity.

If you’re looking for more proof, go look at how the SOG were scored at the Winter Olympics. Save percentages were through the roof, and SOG totals were starting at 4.5 for the most part.

Mark Stone controversy highlights SOG scoring issues

That subjectivity boiled over on Wednesday in Game 5 between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Utah Mammoth . Mark Stone clearly put a shot on net on a breakaway, but it was somehow scored as a block by Logan Cooley . Bettors weren’t fooled, especially with Stone finishing with just one SOG in a double-overtime game, and the reaction spilled onto social media the next day.

I’m not one to complain about outcomes, but when a league already has discretion in scoring, and then a call like this slips through, it’s tough not to side with bettors. To their credit, the NHL added two more shots to Stone’s stat line Thursday afternoon after the backlash.

Getting the stat corrected is one thing — getting your bet corrected is another. Some sportsbooks grade bets as final after a set window. That said, DraftKings and bet365 both adjusted tickets here, which is the right move. I'm not sure if all books followed suit, but I'd be surprised if they did.

How to approach NHL shots-on-goal betting

When you decide to bet on markets like SOG, saves, and blocked shots, you are entering a potential outcome that might not be 100% accurate, and might in fact be working against you on the Over. Proceed with caution, and if you do need to get your ticket corrected, get in the queue at your sportsbook, talk to a person, and be civilized. They tend to do the correct thing more than you’d expect.

The bigger concern is the consistency of NHL scorekeeping — that’s what really needs watching.

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