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Why Rangers’ Oliver Bjorkstrand could ‘really outperform that contract’
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- Why Rangers’ Oliver Bjorkstrand could ‘really outperform that contract’
Perhaps the most overlooked move made by the New York Rangers during this busy offseason is the one-year, $4.5 million contract they handed out to Oliver Bjorkstrand in free agency. But the 31-year-old forward should be an important piece to the puzzle this coming season for the Rangers.
Though training camp is still a month away and coach Mike Sullivan made no public remarks this summer about the Rangers lineup nor line combinations, it's not crazy to think New York signed Bjorkstrand to be a fixture in their top-six forward group in 2026-27.
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On the surface, that makes sense. He's a much-needed right-handed shooter in the forward group, one who's a six-time 20-goal scorer and has 704 games of NHL experience, mostly in a top-six role.
However, Bjorkstrand's production cratered last season with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He scored 12 goals, his fewest since 2017-18, and totaled a career-low 32 points. Only three of his goals came at even strength, including one against the Rangers in the regular-season finale, a 4-2 Blueshirts victory on April 15.
But noted capologist Hart Levine of PuckPedia believes the Rangers did well adding the native of Denmark this summer.
"I really like the Bjorkstrand signing because I think he's shown a lot more than what he did in Tampa, and he has the potential to really outperform that contract," Levine told Forever Blueshirts on the Rink Rap podcast. "And then you either — if you're a good team then you sign him [next offseason] and he's part of the future, or if you're a bad team, then you deal him and get an asset at the [trade] deadline. That contract makes sense."
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It's true that last season appears to be an outlier. That is unless Bjorkstrand really hit a wall and is on a serious downturn. If that's the case, the Rangers are committed to Bjorsktrand for only one season, and the cap hit isn't egregious. So, it's not catastrophic if Bjorkstrand doesn't rebound in 2026-27.
At worst, Sullivan can shift the veteran wing to the third line and bump up a younger player like, say, Will Cuylle , who scored 20 goals each of the past two seasons. Not perfect, but not the end of the world.
However, it's worth noting that Bjorkstrand largely played a bottom-six role with the Lightning, averaging just 10:31 TOI at even strength. That, coupled with an unsightly shooting percentage (9.2 percent, second worst in his career). His actual expected goal share was a decent 50.42 percent 5v5, according to Natural Stat Trick . But the Lightning were outscored 33-26 with Bjorkstrand out there 5v5,
And if he bounces back and scores 20 goals playing alongside Mika Zibanejad or J.T. Miller this season, that $4.5 million cap hit will look like chump change.
'Savvy' Rangers moves this offseason include signing Oliver Bjorkstrand
Morgan Tencza-Imagn ImagesCredit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Two seasons ago, Bjorkstrand scored 21 goals (16 at even strength) splitting the campaign with the Seattle Kraken and Lightning. That was the sixth time in seven years he scored at least 20 goals, including the 21 he had in 49 games during the COVID-shortened season of 2019-20.
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Prior to last season, Bjorkstrand was a remarkably consistent 20-goal, 40+-point forward. A pretty ideal secondary scorer, and trusted 200-foot player. That's why Levine believes the Bjorkstrand signing is a shrewd one for the Rangers, and how that contract may very well be a favorable one for the team.
Last season wasn't a complete lost cause for Bjorkstrand, who played 80 games, the fifth straight year he appeared in 79 or more. He was second on the Lightning with nine power-play goals and fourth with 14 power-play points. He averaged 3:08 TOI on the power play.
So, the skill is still there. Bjorkstrand should see time on New York's second power-play unit, and could even work his way on to PP1, at least occasionally, given his track record. The Rangers were fifth in the NHL on the power play last season (24.7 percent) and the additions of Bjorkstrand, forward Pavel Dorofeyev, and defenseman Sean Durzi should solidify both units.
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Speaking of Durzi, the 27-year-old has two seasons remaining with a $6 million AAV on his contract. Levine sees the Durzi acquisition in a similar light as the Bjorkstrand signing for the Rangers.
"I think their [Vincent] Trocheck trade [with the Utah Mammoth] was very interesting because they got a really good defenseman and a pretty highly thought of prospect [ Cole Beaudoin ]," Levine explained.." So, that's not necessarily taking a step back. That kind of deal makes a lot of sense for them. If they miss the playoffs again this year and they're bad, I think Durzi would have a lot of value at the [trade] deadline, right?"
Yes, that should be the case. In Bjorkstrand and Durzi, the Rangers acquired two veteran players who could and should help in the short term, but are not standing in the way of the kids longer term.
"They made some moves that are savvy and have a chance to work out. So, maybe that do have a plan where it's a little bit of buying, a little bit of selling," Levine said. "Let's see what we have this year. But to me, it will really be determined this year. If they're not a playoff team this year, even if they're close to making the playoffs, and you try and retool again on the fly, that's where you get into some risk."
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There's always a fine line, when deciding on individual players or construction a long-term plan and vision.
In 2026-27, let's see what Bjorkstrand delivers for the Rangers.
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