The Wisconsin Badgers take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Sunday in the season opener for both teams at Lambeau Field. Ahead of the game, most aren't giving the Badgers a chance, with Notre Dame a three-touchdown favorite over Wisconsin.
I want to be very clear at the outset: I am not predicting a Wisconsin win over Notre Dame tonight at Lambeau Field. The Irish are correctly the heavy favorites, and I won't even attempt to dispute that.
But the way the Badgers have been summarily dismissed as having no chance in this game has rubbed me the wrong way. Hopefully, it's having the same impact on Luke Fickell's team.
So, here are three things that have to come together in order for Bucky to pull the massive upset.
Win The Turnover Battle
This is the most fundamental of the lot. There is no scenario where the Badgers turn the ball over more than the Irish and win. That is not hyperbole. The 2025 Wisconsin defense was generally sound but didn't force turnovers. That has to change in 2026 for this team to hit its ceiling, and it's especially pivotal today.
One note: in the two other close Top 25 games on Saturday (Boise State vs. Oregon, Western Michigan vs. Michigan), the major underdogs both won the turnover battle.
Wisconsin Must Believe
This one is more esoteric. The Xs and Os are important, but in order to win today, Wisconsin players and coaches will need to believe in their hearts that it will happen. Not might happen. Not could happen. Will happen.
It should be clear pretty quickly if the team has this mindset, because there's no way that the Badgers can come out sluggish and try to claw their way back.
They need to punch the Irish in the mouth from the opening kick and keep slugging all game.
Big Plays on Offense
It's highly unlikely that the Badgers will come out tonight with a large number of long, sustained offensive drives. Notre Dame's defense is simply too good for that. So, Colton Joseph and crew will need to spring a few big plays.
Joseph breaking contain for a huge gain. Abu Sama finding a seam for a 40-yard run. Someone in the much-maligned wide receiver room dropping some jaws with a big play. Wisconsin will need to get some chunk yards in the worst way today.
Those explosives are the true game-changers and aid point No. 2 of belief. Just a few of those could go a long way into keeping this one within reach.
