The teams that have won four of the last five WNBA championships could have their dreams of claiming another end on Friday night.
Both the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces find themselves down 0-2, hoping that the series shifts to Brooklyn and Vegas, respectively, will likewise shift the momentum in their favor.
The No. 8-seed Liberty host the No. 4-seed Atlanta Dream, possibly benefitting from the return of the currently-questionable Allisha Gray, at 7:30 p.m. in Barclays Center (ESPN). Then, the No. 3-seed Aces will welcome the No. 2-seed Valkyries into the House at 9:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN).
Actions, more than the atmospherics or environment, however, will make that momentum shift happen. (We'll hope it's not officiating.)
So, who can access the extra energy, effort and impact required to allow the Liberty and Aces to extend the semis?
Here are my X factors for New York and Las Vegas. In the comments, let us know who you see as crucial from both trailing home teams, while also sharing any other series analysis.
The Liberty roster is full of players who could emerge as a difference maker.
That, in fact, might be part of their problem.
Marine Fauthoux, after playing 260 regular-season minutes—fewer than the departed Betnijah Laney-Hamilton—and two minutes in the first round, has become a rotational regular in the semis, playing 42 minutes across the two games in Atlanta. She's usurped Pauline Astier, who seemed essential to Liberty's success, especially after outplaying fellow rookie Olivia Miles in the first round.
Marine Johannès has been minimized, Han Xu has seen just spot minutes and Rebekah Gardner and Rebecca Allen also have been limited. At various points of the season, all of those players were part of preferred lineups.
For the Liberty, it's likely that things aren't going well if head coach Chris DeMarco is searching for a solution among his raft of role players.
To avoid such a circumstance, New York needs their ceiling raiser to do just that.
When the Liberty won the 2023 Commissioner's Cup and 2024 WNBA Finals, who was the MVP?
It's Jonquel Jones' time to, once again, help the Liberty become the best version of themselves.
So far, Jones has been solid. After an 11-point and 12-rebound double-double in Game 1, when she also had four assists and five blocks, she scored 21 points and grabbed eight boards in Game 2, adding four more blocks. Excluding Breanna Stewart, she's probably been New York's best player.
Yet, JJ's presence has only been felt for stretches of both games. That contrasts to the Dream's Angel Reese. You know when Angel is on the court. That's not always the case with Jonquel.
In Game 3, that's got to change. New York needs the JJ who remembers she is the biggest, strongest player on the court, capable of persevering through the relentlessness of Reese and overpowering her.
Fight for post position. Demand the ball. Get buckets. Then, complement that interior dominance by stepping outside, stretching out Atlanta's defenders and draining some 3s.
To unleash all Jonquel has to offer, her own assertiveness must be paired with intentionality from her teammates and the coaching staff, as "getting JJ going" must be a priority from the jump.
In contrast to the Liberty, the Aces roster does not feature a buffet of players who could conceivably emerge as a difference maker.
While a scoring burst from Brianna Turner, Kierstan Bell heater or Mai Yamamoto masterclass would be fun, those fantasies are too far-fetched. (There's also the even more outlandish idea of a Chennedy Carter comeback.)
Instead, the X factor for Vegas is the player who has proven she is made for these moments: Jewell Loyd.
After exiting Game 1 early and missing Game 2, Loyd is questionable for Game 3. Playing, and then playing a crucial role, might be too much to ask of a 33-year-old player managing a leg injury.
But over the course of her two-season tenure with the Aces, Loyd has had the tendency to step up right when she's been counted out. The box scores from her Aces era include too many absent or inefficient nights, but mixed in with all that mediocrity will be stat line that serves as evidence that the Gold Mamba is still in there.
Last season, she ensured her WNBA Finals record remained spotless, pairing her 13 3-pointers with 22 rebounds to help the Aces secure the four-game sweep. In this year's first round, she again found her stroke from downtown, shooting over 50 percent from 3, while also putting in the defensive dirty work required to slow down the Indiana Fever offense.
That same combination—some timely triples that can stretch and scramble the Golden State defense, an extra effort on the glass that boosts the Aces in the possession battle and digging in defensively to prevent one of the Valkyries many depth pieces from going off—is what the Aces need.
