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Yale vs Penn Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for Friday, Oct. 23
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- Yale vs Penn Prediction, Pick, NCAAF Odds for Friday, Oct. 23
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images. Pictured: Franklin Field at the University of Pennsylvania.
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The Yale Bulldogs take on the Penn Quakers in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Friday, Oct. 23. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
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Yale is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -215. Penn, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +164 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here's my Yale vs Penn predictionand college football pick for Friday, October 23.
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Yale vs Penn Pick: Yale -5.5 (-113)
My Penn vs. Yale best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Yale vs Penn Odds
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Yale vs Penn point spread: Yale -5.5 (-113), Penn +5.5 (-113)
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Yale vs Penn over/under: 48.5 (-113o / -113u)
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Yale vs Penn moneyline: Penn +164, Yale -215
Yale comes into this one off a disappointing home loss against Rhode Island last week in what amounted to such a poor effort defensively against the Rams.
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The Bulldogs couldn't stop the big plays from Rhode Island in the passing game, as receiver Marquis Buchanan torched the Yale secondary for 193 yards on just seven catches.
The offense looked completely lost for long stretches, as quarterback Dante Reno completed just 15-of-38 passes for 105 yards. After falling behind 17-0, Yale could get no closer than 10 points at any time in the second half.
The spot was bad, as Yale was off an emotional play-up spot against Dartmouth the week prior, and the team has been through a lot with the recent passing of former head coach Tony Reno, the father of Yale's star quarterback.
Yale has the best offense in the Ivy League, and Reno is the premier quarterback in the conference of the "Ancient Eight." He has thrown for 1,182 yards and 13 touchdowns in four games played this season, and the Bulldogs have two major weapons in the receiving game in Jaxton Santiago and Lucius Anderson .
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These two have combined to catch 72 passes for 1,001 yards with 10 receiving touchdowns.
Tight end Graham Smith has caught a touchdown in all but one game this season, and the offense has played good complementary football with Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni shredding defenses over the last three weeks.
He has rushed for 659 yards with four rushing scores this year. I expect a much better performance this week as Yale steps back into conference play against Penn .
The Yale defense has been susceptible to giving up big plays all season, and if the Bulldogs could ever correct that, this defense has the potential to be nasty.
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Rhode Island connected on several explosive passes, but the Rams didn't stack successful plays together regularly. Big plays allowed were such a problem in the first three games of the season against Holy Cross , Cornell and Merrimack .
The stop unit is tough, and teams are struggling to convert third down at a high percentage.
Head coach Kevin Cahill is a defensive coach, and there's talent on this defense, so mitigating the big plays surrendered is something I expect to see.
Penn has to be demoralized after playing such good football against Columbia , only to blow a 24-7 lead and fall to the Lions by a score of 28-27 last Friday night.
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I think the Quakers have found something with backup quarterback Karson Siqueiros-Lasky , who led the comeback win against Howard after starter Miles Teodecki went down with an injury.
KSL threw for 374 yards with a pair of touchdown passes, as the Penn offense found explosiveness and consistency not seen this season.
The ground attack was inconsistent, and the team was ultimately done in by poor decision-making and costly turnovers as Siqueiros-Lasky threw four interceptions.
Penn sits at 0-2 in Ivy League play and is already on the outside looking in when it comes to winning the conference in what's amounting to a lost rebuilding season in Philadelphia. This is a tough assignment this week.
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The defense has played consistently well this year, but Penn has benefitted from playing opponents who have struggled offensively.
Bucknell has a fraction of the offensive talent it's used to deploying out of the Patriot League, and Penn played Lehigh with a backup quarterback.
Dartmouth has potentially the worst offense in the conference, and Howard is in a rebuilding year out of the MEAC.
The defensive metrics are aided by these factors, and Columbia validated that Penn might not have as tough a defense as the metrics would indicate.
This line opened with Yale listed as a 3.5-point favorite in the contest with a total that's set at 48.5.
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Yale has taken a bit of action and currently sits at -5.5. I'm willing to bet on the Bulldogs rebounding from a disappointing loss last week and getting back on track here.
Yale is a vastly superior team, and the offense should have its way with the Penn defense. The Quakers don't register much Defensive Havoc, and Yale has surrendered just five sacks and 18 tackles for loss all season.
Reno will have time to stand in the pocket and let pass plays develop.
Last week, Penn couldn't cover the one Columbia weapon who could torch this Quaker secondary, as Bryce Coleman had 90 receiving yards and three scores.
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Yale has three receivers capable of registering the explosive plays at any time. This will be a really tough task trying to keep Yale out of the end zone here.
The Bulldogs defense hasn't played too badly on a per-down basis, and Penn's offense hasn't been a quick-strike unit this season.
I don't think we see the big chunk plays show up here for Penn, which will allow Yale to settle in defensively and go to work in getting Penn to third down, something we should see a lot of.
The Bulldogs are allowing opponents to convert just 26% on third down this season, so Penn is really going to have to execute well in order to stay on the field and put drives together. I don't think it'll do it here.
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Yale is the better team, and its strong running game will be the difference here. Penn can't run the football, and situational execution will be a struggle as the Quakers have no consistency in moving the ball on the ground. Lay the number with Yale.
Pick: Yale -5.5 (-113)
