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Yankees vs. Padres prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for September 4
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- Yankees vs. Padres prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for September 4
The Yankees (80-60) continue their swing along the West Coast with a weekend series in San Diego against the Padres (73-67).
Each of these teams is currently in the hunt for a playoff berth, but the Padres' situation is far more tenuous. The Yankees are ten clear of the pack in the race for a Wild Card spot and are very much alive in the hunt for the division title trailing the Rays by just three games. The Padres are on the outside looking in, trailing the Diamondbacks by 0.5 games for the final Wild Card spot…and they are not catching the Dodgers in the NL West.
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San Diego's outlook is grim following a recent run of awful results. After being swept by the Rays last weekend, the Padres lost two of three against the Reds earlier this week. The Yankees arrive in San Diego feeling good after taking two of three to open this road trip in Orange County against the Angels. Last weekend they took three of four from the Red Sox.
Max Fried(4-4, 2.80 ERA) is scheduled to start for New York. Battling a bone bruise that has put him on the shelf at times, Fried has been exceptional of late. In four starts in August, the veteran has not allowed more than a run in any of them. For the month he has thrown 20.1 innings and allowed three runs. Walker Buehler(8-6, 4.66 ERA) takes the ball for the Padres. After a slow start to the season, Buehler has performed better of late. Last month, Buehler allowed 11 runs over 31.1 innings.
Lets dive into tonight's matchup and find a sweat or two.
We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Yankees vs. Padres
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Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
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Time: 9:40PM EST
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Site: Petco Park
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City: San Diego, CA
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Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, YES, Padres.TV
Peacock offers one of the most comprehensive live sports streaming lineups available today, bringing together the NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, Premier League, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, golf, motorsports, and major global sporting events in a single service.
The Latest Odds: Yankees vs. Padres – September 4
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings :
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Moneyline: New York Yankees (-121), San Diego Padres (+101)
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Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+139), Padres +1.5 (-169)
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Total: 7.5 runs
Starting Pitchers and their Stats: Yankees vs. Padres for September 4
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Padres:Walker Buehler
Season Totals: 131.1 IP, 8-6, 4.66 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 111K, 49 BB -
Yankees:Max Fried
Season Totals: 90.0 IP, 4-4, 2.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 83K, 28 BB
Who's Hot? Who's Not! Yankees vs. Padres
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Manny Machadoand Jackson Merrillhave each gone yard in their careers against Max Fried
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Max Friedhas struck out 4 hitters in 3 of his last 6 starts and 7 in the other 3
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Jazz Chisholm Jr.is 6-10 including 2 HRs in his career against Walker Buehler
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Ryan McMahonhas struck out 14 times in 36 career ABs against Buehler
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Walker Buehlerhas not struck out more than 5 in any of his last 6 starts and struck out 5 in just 1 of those 6
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Cody Bellingeris riding a 6-game hitting streak (12-25)
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Top Betting Trends & Insights: Yankees vs. Padres
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The Padres are 79-61 on the Run Line this season
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The Yankees are 69-71 on the Run Line this season
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The OVER has cashed 62 times in games involving the Padres this season (62-75-3)
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The OVER has cashed 61 times in games involving the Yankees this season (61-75-4)
Expert picks & predictions: Yankees vs. Padres for September 4
Rotoworld Bet Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
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Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight's game between the Padres and the Yankees:
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Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Yankees on the Moneyline.
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Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Yankees on the Run Line.
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Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 7.5.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
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Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
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Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
