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Zay Flowers Fantasy Prediction 2026: Buy the Touchdown Rebound at a 37.2 ADP
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- Zay Flowers Fantasy Prediction 2026: Buy the Touchdown Rebound at a 37.2 ADP
Zay Flowers Fantasy Prediction 2026:
Declan Doyle is the new OC in town, and he comes over from Chicago, where he was attached to the hip of Ben Johnson, an OC who I just waxed poetic about and is considered one of the best offensive minds in the sport.
That feels like a good thing. With him operating in this role, the Bears ranked third in YPA when throwing short of the sticks in 2025, and that just so happens to be a place where the former first-round pick thrives.
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Should You Draft Zay Flowers in Fantasy Football?
Let's start with Flowers' ADP in PFN's Free Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator , which is 37.2. That means he's going right around the 3-4 turn. For his positional rank, my colleague Kyle Soppe and I have him up at WR14. His projected fantasy points per game is 14.25. If he hits that number at that cost, that's a small miss, but that's merely a projection. It doesn't take into account both the ceiling and the floor outcomes.
I am pretty bullish on Flowers this season. I really like where he goes in drafts, and he's somebody I think could have a breakout year. I don't want to call anyone this year's JSN, but I do think Flowers would be a candidate if we're talking about similarities in his efficiency metrics and where he goes in drafts. Throughout his entire career, Flowers has been good but not really great. I think this is the year he could truly be great.
He posted 2.62 yards per route run last season, which is really impressive. He's the clear WR1 for a very good passing quarterback, despite what critics of Lamar Jackson may say, and he earned a 29% target share last season. The volume, or rather the volume rate, is not the problem.
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The overall volume is, and that's because Lamar Jackson only attempted around 23 passes per game last year. Over his career, Lamar has typically been in the 27 to 28 pass attempts per game range, and I think we could get some positive regression there. We get Lamar back into his career averages, not even 30-plus, just in the 27 to 28 range, and all of a sudden Flowers' target count is shooting up by 1 to 2 per game. That is meaningful. That could really be what takes him to the next level.
But the real issue for him has been touchdowns. He has yet to score more than 5 times in a season, despite an expected touchdown rate in the 7 to 8 range based on his yardage total last year. That could be a feature of the offense. It could just be that they don't want to use him in the red zone. But I would submit that he is one of their better options.
There have been reports in training camp that they've been experimenting more with getting him the ball and manufacturing touches near the goal line. They can do the little push pass that we see the Chiefs do with Rashee Rice.
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They can certainly do that with Flowers. I'm sure he can run a zig or an out route where Lamar can hit him quickly. This is a talented player, very shifty, very agile. I don't think there's any reason, or anything with his skill set, that prohibits him from being a red-zone weapon.
Now imagine we have more targets, we have less target competition, we get a touchdown rate closer to expected, and an overall better offensive environment with a new play caller. I think that kind of season is within his range of outcomes. I think there's top-8 upside here, making Flowers somebody I really want to draft around that late-3, early-4 spot in fantasy drafts.
FANTASY RANKINGS: PFN's FREE Fantasy PPR, Half-PPR, and Non-PPR Rankings
Zay Flowers' Week 1 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis provided by PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe .
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I understand that we seemed to get highlights of every Baltimore player this summer besides Flowers, but I'm not reading into that at all, and I'd lose sleep at night if I were fading this star receiver.
The consecutive 1,000-yard seasons are nice, but because he's yet to clear 5 touchdown receptions in a season, I don't think he's given the ceiling respect that he deserves. This is a player who can shake free in a phone booth, is the unquestioned WR1, and plays for an offense that feels close to a lock to post top-10 scoring numbers.
Eight top-24 finishes in 2025 is nice, but I think that's a baseline assumption in 2026. Could he double the number of top-12 finishes this year, moving from 3 to 6?
I think so, and it wouldn't surprise me if he put together a very strong stat line against last season's seventh-worst third-down defense.
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START PREPARING: PFN's FREE Fantasy Draft Simulator
Where Flowers Ranks Among 2026 Wide Receivers
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Nico Collins | HOU
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A.J. Brown | NE
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George Pickens | DAL
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Rashee Rice | KC
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Chris Olave | NO
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Zay Flowers | BAL
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Tee Higgins | CIN
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Jaylen Waddle | DEN
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DeVonta Smith | PHI
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Ladd McConkey | LAC
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Emeka Egbuka | TB
Check the full position group on PFN's 2026 PPR Wide Receiver Board .
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network .
