How will the Big 12 shake out in 2024, and where will Utah and BYU fit in?

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How will the Big 12 shake out in 2024, and where will Utah and BYU fit in?

Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham and QB Cameron Rising listen to an official as Utah and Penn State play in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, on Monday, Jan. 2, 2023. After missing the entire 2023 season due to injury, Rising will be back QB for the Utes as they embark on their first season in the Big 12. | Scott G Winterton, Deseret News

Joe Coles · Deseret News

Sat, Jun 1, 2024 ·

9 min read

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With Big 12 media days kicking off in Las Vegas — moving from its usual spot in Dallas for two years — in a little over a month's time, win totals for the 2024 season have been released.

Utah has the highest number, with its win total set at 9.5, and Houston has the lowest of the 16-team conference, at four wins.

Here are five takeaways from the Big 12 win totals set by Vegas.

A favorable schedule for Utah

The Utes drew a favorable schedule in their inaugural Big 12 season.

Utah doesn't leave the Beehive State until Sept. 21, opening the season with Southern Utah on Aug. 29 before playing Baylor in a nonconference contest — the series was scheduled prior to the Utes joining the Big 12 and both teams agreed to keep it as a nonconference game in 2024 — then heading north to take on Utah State in Logan.

Staying within the confines of Utah for the entire nonconference slate — something the Utes haven't done since 2019 — is an advantage for Kyle Whittingham's squad.

In conference play, Utah avoids some of the expected contenders for the Big 12 crown — Kansas State and Kansas — and has four conference games against teams with a projected win total of 5.5 or less ( Colorado , Arizona State , BYU and Houston).

However, the Utes will be tested early, opening Big 12 play in Stillwater, Oklahoma , against Oklahoma State before heading back to Salt Lake City to face Arizona.

The Cowboys went to the Big 12 championship game last season and return quarterback Alan Bowman (3,460 yards, 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 2023) and running back Ollie Gordon II , who won the Doak Walker Award, given to the nation's top running back, along with 19 other starters.

It's a bit puzzling that Oklahoma State's win total is set at 7.5 and the Cowboys only have the seventh-best odds to win the Big 12.

Arizona is one of the more intriguing stories in the Big 12 next year. Jedd Fisch left Tucson for Seattle after revitalizing the program, but his offensive stars didn't follow him. Quarterback Noah Fifita (2,869 yards, 25 TDs) and star receiver Tetairoa McMillan (1,402 yards, 10 TDs) stayed in the desert with new head coach Brent Brennan. Can they keep up Arizona's high-flying offense from last season?

There was quite a bit of roster turnover — 29 transfers out, 21 transfers in — but keeping Fifita and McMillan is huge for the Wildcats.

If Utah can get through Oklahoma State and Arizona unscathed and start the season 5-0, it will have moved past two of its biggest obstacles this season.

Bearish on the Buffaloes

The Deion Sanders-led Colorado Buffaloes were the most talked-about team in college football last season, drawing attention from the moment when "Coach Prime" started the program from scratch with a record number of transfers — both out and into the program.

An NFL Hall of Fame legend taking over at a Power Five program and coaching them to a 3-0 record to start the season, with two exciting wins, meant that Boulder became the center of the college football world.

ESPN's "College GameDay" and Fox's "Big Noon Kickoff" set up shop in Colorado, but after the hot start, the program came crashing back down to earth.

Quarterback Shedeur Sanders was running for his life behind a shaky offensive line that allowed 56 sacks and Colorado's defense was one of the worst in the country, allowing 453.3 yards per game.

Can Deion Sanders right the ship in his second year in Boulder? So far, he's used the same playbook — 42 incoming transfers and 41 outgoing transfers, per 247Sports, including a rebuilt offensive line.

The Buffaloes lost talented cornerback Cormani McClain and running back Dylan Edwards , but gained several other highly-ranked players, including eight that are ranked four stars as a transfer by 247Sports.

Will Sanders' plan work this time? The Buffaloes have talent in some key positions, but will they gel as a team?

Vegas is skeptical, setting the win total at 5.5.

Utes are among the favorites

Prognosticators are high on the Utes, setting their regular-season win total at 9.5.

As mentioned above, the schedule factors into why the line has been set so high, but the main factor is the return of Cam Rising at quarterback, as the Utes get the heartbeat of their team back and someone who threw for 3,034 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2022. After last year's dismal offensive showing — 98th in Division I football in points per game (23.2), 92nd in total yards per game (348.4) and 117th in passing yards per game (165.8) — Rising should restore Utah's offense to what it was in 2021 and 2022.

Much of Utah's season rests on the shoulders of Rising, who makes his return to the field after missing last season. Rising has his most talented class of receivers yet — Money Parks, Dorian Singer and Damien Alford — with tight ends Brant Kuithe and emerging talent Landen King.

Utah doesn't have a true every-down running back but will roll with a combination of Micah Bernard, Jaylon Glover, Mike Mitchell and Dijon Stanley, with Bernard expected to take the lead.

The big question is the offensive line, which replaces three starting positions — guard Keaton Bills, tackle Sataoa Laumea and center Kolinu'u Faaiu. Utah does have depth at the position — Johnny Maea, Jaren Kump, Tanoa Togiai, Zereoue Williams and Caleb Lomu can step in — but may need a transfer offensive lineman before fall camp starts.

Defensively, the Utes return a lot of production from last year's team that allowed just 19.31 points per game last year, but the players they do need to replace contributed a ton last season — defensive end Jonah Elliss and safeties Cole Bishop and Sione Vaki . Georgia Tech transfer Kenan Johnson should fill in at cornerback, replacing Miles Battle and JaTravis Broughton.

Will BYU go bowling?

0229fbccougars.spt_MS_01.JPG — BYU Football Head Coach Kalani Sitake walks off the SAB outdoor practice fields after practice at the start of spring camp in Provo on Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. | Marielle Scott, Deseret News

Transitions to Power Five conferences are hard.

After making the leap from the Mountain West to the Pac-12, Utah went through some of the same growing pains the Cougars are experiencing.

The Utes did go 8-5 in their first season in the Pac-12 — and were a kick away from going to the conference championship due to USC's sanctions making them ineligible for the postseason — but had two straight losing seasons in the ensuing two years.

The quality of Utah's recruiting classes kept going up and up, and by the fourth year in the Pac-12, the Utes had the talent to compete, and have rattled off 10 consecutive winning seasons, plus two conference championships in that time.

In their second year in the Big 12, are the Cougars about to turn the corner, or will they have consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 2003-2004?

Vegas set BYU's win total at 4.5, second-to-last in the Big 12, and the Cougars' Big 12 title odds are either second-to-last or last depending on which sportsbook you look at.

BYU's offense ranked 118th in total yards per game (309.8) and 99th in points per game (23.1).

The quarterback situation is uncertain, and the battle between Jake Retzlaff, Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanon and McCae Hillstead will extend into fall. Those options don't inspire a ton of confidence in the Cougars returning to the dominant quarterback play they've enjoyed in the past this season.

The offensive line needs to improve, as do the Cougars' running backs, but whoever the starting quarterback ends up being has some great weapons to throw to if he has enough time — Darius Lassiter, Chase Roberts and Kody Epps.

Defensively, the Cougars struggled last season, ranking 106th in yards allowed per game (417.7) and 96th points allowed per game (29.8).

Defensive coordinator Jay Hill brought in Weber State linebacker Jack Kelly, who could make a sizable impact in his first season in Provo, and landed defensive line transfer defensive tackle Danny Saili. Otherwise, BYU brings back a lot of the defense from last year, which will need to see an improvement for the Cougars to become bowl eligible.

Kansas State is a major contender

In win totals, odds to win the Big 12 and power rankings, the team right behind Utah — or in some cases, the favorite to win — is Kansas State.

Though the Utes and Wildcats will not face off in the regular season, Kansas State could be the team Utah faces in the Big 12 championship — if the Utes are able to get there.

It all starts with quarterback Avery Johnson , who has high expectations after playing in eight games, starting the Pop-Tarts Bowl and leading Kansas State to a 28-19 win.

DJ Giddens , who ranked 18th in the nation in rushing yards per game, and Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards form a talented backfield behind a veteran offensive line.

Defensively, the Wildcats return six starters from a defense that ranked third in the Big 12 in yards allowed per game (372.5) and second in points allowed (21).

Big 12 win totals (via Circa Sports)

Utah: 9.5
Kansas State: 9
Kansas: 8
Texas Tech : 8
Arizona: 7.5
Iowa State: 7.5
UCF : 7.5
Oklahoma State: 7.5
TCU : 7.5
West Virginia : 6.5
Colorado: 5.5
Cincinnati : 5.5
Baylor: 5
Arizona State: 4.5
BYU: 4.5
Houston: 4

In case you missed it

The Runnin' Utes made a splash in the transfer portal as East Carolina forward Ezra Ausar announced that he is transferring to Utah. The four-star transfer, according to 247Sports, averaged 11.4 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.0 assists per game for the Pirates. It's a key pickup for the Utes after Branden Carlson graduated and Keba Keita transferred to BYU this offseason.

From the archive

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What the new ESPN SP+ rankings tell us about BYU, Utah and Utah State ( Deseret News )
What former Utah AD Chris Hill said about a landmark NCAA settlement that clears the way for schools to directly pay players ( Deseret News )
What financial impact could new NCAA settlement have on Utah? ( Deseret News )

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