TEMPE, Arizona — Technically, the BYU Cougars are still alive for a berth in the Big 12 conference championship game in Arlington, Texas, on Dec. 7 after dropping a 28-23 heartbreaker at Arizona State on Saturday afternoon.
As was detailed by the Deseret News on Saturday night , the Cougars must beat Houston (4-7, 3-5) at 8:15 p.m. this coming Saturday night and have either Kansas State win at Iowa State or Arizona win at home against ASU to make it to AT&T Stadium and play for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
BYU (9-2, 6-2) lost control of its own destiny with back-to-back losses to Kansas and ASU after its magical 9-0 start. The Cougars can only blame themselves for failing to finish on both occasions.
The truth is, coach Kalani Sitake's team hasn't played like a championship game-caliber squad since the month began. Coming off a 37-24 win at UCF on Oct. 26 , the Cougars flew back from Orlando feeling good about themselves , and had a bye week to get in some extra preparation for Utah.
They haven't been the same team since, for whatever reason, on both sides of the ball, and even special teams has slipped a bit (notwithstanding Keelan Marion's kickoff return and Will Ferrin's game-winning field goal against the Utes).
There have been dropped passes, poor play calls, subpar blocking and inaccurate passes on offense, and shoddy tackling, blown coverages and general lack of stoutness on defense. And, of course, a couple of fluky plays, such as the quick punt glancing off Evan Johnson 's helmet against Kansas and the squib kick deflecting off Talan Alfrey in Tempe.
On offense, a strong rushing attack is a quarterback's best friend and can cover up a lot of deficiencies, as ASU showed Saturday. The Sun Devils averaged only 3.5 yards per carry, but they controlled the clock with Cam Skattebo (28 carries, 147 yards, 3 touchdowns) to take some pressure off redshirt freshman QB Sam Leavitt.
The Sun Devils were 7 of 10 on third down, which was probably the key stat of the game. The Cougars got their rushing attack going a little bit in the second half after picking up only 25 yards on 13 carries in the first half. BYU finished with a respectable 4.1 yards per carry and were 7 of 13 on third down and 2 of 5 on fourth down.
"I just want to get the ball downfield, however it goes," Sitake said. "I just want to get points on the board. We have to look at where the deficiencies are, why we weren't able to do it consistently. A lot of that has to do with mistakes, but a lot of it has to do with the talent we are going against. … That's why a lot of these games are tight."
Indeed, Kansas — which has pulled off three consecutive upsets of nationally ranked teams — and Arizona State are playing like teams with postseason potential.
BYU is not.
Offensive lineman Connor Pay was quick to point out that this team doesn't believe in moral victories, but the way it played in the second half offers hope that coaches can get it turned around quickly.
"That was definitely a lot better than if we laid down and got blown out," Pay said.
The starting center said the slow start came as a surprise, because the Cougars had "a really solid week of practices" leading up to the trip to Tempe. The same couldn't be said the week prior when the rivalry win hangover bared its ugly head, several players have said.
"Just too many mistakes in the first half. A few things that didn't go our way," Pay said of BYU's 114-yard output in the first half against a mediocre ASU defense. "We were able to tighten some of those things up in the second half, but just too little too late."
Pay said coaches made some adjustments that enabled LJ Martin to get going a bit (42 yards) and Keelan Marion to execute some jet sweeps (30 yards, two TDs) but the damage was done.
"They came out and did a good job in the first half, and we didn't. That is a bad recipe when you come out and are making mistakes and they are playing well," Pay said. "I think we made a few adjustments that I will keep to myself that were pretty key."
Bottom line is that the Cougars could be 11-0 without too much of a stretch of the imagination, but also 7-4 or even 6-5. There has been some regression to the mean after the hot start.
"A lot of it is execution. I mean, football is crazy because there are so many things that lead up to a moment like that (final drive when Jake Retzlaff threw an inaccurate pass that was intercepted by Javan Robinson)," said receiver Chase Roberts. "You wish you could have played different in that first half so you didn't have that moment. But when moments come down to that, we need to execute. We have been really good at that.
Unfortunately the last two games we haven't."
So the reeling BYU Cougars turn their attention to another set of reeling Cougars, the red-clad Cougars of Houston, who can't make it to a bowl game and are playing for nothing but pride. The ASU-Arizona game begins at 1:30 p.m. MST and the Kansas State-Iowa State game, known as "Farmageddon," kicks off at 5:30 p.m. and should be in the second half when BYU-Houston begins.
"We really need to play our game. When we play our game, we don't get into those situations. We beat teams by two, three scores. That is what we need to get back to," Roberts said. "That is BYU football . We need to start beating teams like we have been. And not even have to get into those last-second situations. Unfortunately they didn't go our way these past couple games."
As far as the championship game goes, if BYU beats Houston:
• An ISU win and ASU loss means BYU plays ISU in Arlington.
• An ASU win and ISU loss means BYU plays ASU in Arlington.
• If both ISU and ASU lose and Colorado beats Oklahoma State, BYU plays Colorado in Arlington.
Houston (4-7, 3-5) at No. 19 BYU (9-2, 6-2)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. MST
At LaVell Edwards Stadium
Provo, Utah
TV: ESPN
Radio: KSL Newsradio 102.7 FM/1160 AM
