The Guardians made the type of trade that can be a difficult sell to the fan base.
Immediately being no-hit in their first game after the trade deadline won't help matters.
The team made three moves in the week leading up to Tuesday's deadline, trading Amed Rosario to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard , Aaron Civale to the Tampa Bay Rays for first base prospect Kyle Manzardo and Josh Bell to the Miami Marlins for middle infield prospect Khalil Watson (and, technically, Jean Segura , who was a member of the Guardians for about four seconds before released).
Neither Rosario nor Bell had a productive 2023 compared to their previous years in the majors. The Rosario deal added a starting pitcher to a banged-up rotation and will allow Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio (who is in Triple-A) to handle the opportunities at shortstop. The Bell trade will save roughly $6 million in 2024 and clear the path for Manzardo at some point, along with adding Watson, a former first-round draft pick, into their minor league ranks.
The Civale deal? That one carries with it a little more intrigue.
Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff have long said they'll be open to just about kind of trade. And, in a way, they have to be at least willing to answer the phone (or any other method of communication) to explore any avenue they can to improve the roster and minor league system.
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At the time of the Civale deal, the Guardians were less than a game behind the Minnesota Twins for the lead in the mediocre American League Central. After being no-hit by Framber Valdez Tuesday night, they're now two games behind the Twins and two games under .500. As it turns out, a team does need hits to win most games.
A team that close to the division lead wouldn't often deal a starting pitcher who was on such a hot streak like Civale (1.45 ERA over his last six outings). That's especially true for a club in the Guardians' position, with their Nos. 1 and 2 starters ( Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie ) out until at least September. It's like trying to chase down the car in front of you with two flat tires. That's before mentioning that 60 percent of the rotation is made up of rookies who could have their innings limited.
For a fan base wanting a contending team to be aggressive at the deadline, this trade certainly won't fit the mold. That's the timing element of it all. Then there's the value.
Only a month ago, the perception of Civale was very different. He's been a fine starting pitcher with a career 3.77 ERA. He's also been oft-injured, never having pitched 125 innings in a single season, and he's only reached 100 innings once while battling a slew of injuries. He has 2½ years of control left.
Then he went on a ridiculously hot July, and the Guardians turned the above profile into six-plus years of control with Manzardo, one of the game's top-40 prospects
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You'll often hear teams describe trade situations as ones they'll only act upon if they get blown away with an offer. This one probably fit the bill. Manzardo has a career .935 OPS in the minors and, most importantly, plays a position the Guardians haven't been able to develop on their own.
The Guardians have been able to churn out quality pitching seemingly with the snap of a finger. But on the position player side? Well, there's a reason they just got no-hit.
Antonetti said on a Zoom call the team had the intent of adding hitting prospects to the upper levels of the minor leagues. The Rays had such a need for a starting pitcher that the Guardians received a better return (if you're going by the highest-ranked prospect in the deal) for Civale than the New York Mets did for Justin Verlander .
Civale had a 4.92 ERA last year while, again, struggling to remain healthy. The Guardians having a chance to add a prospect the level of Manzardo wasn't something that seemed like it'd be on the horizon at that time.
In a vacuum, the Guardians received a high level of value for 2½ years of Civale. But trades aren't made in a vacuum, which is why the timing element will still — and understandably — make it hard for fans to swallow.
Their chances of running down the Twins with Bieber and McKenzie at least a month away — and it remains possible that one or both never pitches again this season — were already less then ideal. Without Civale, the one veteran healthy and pitching well, they're certainly lower than they were a few days ago. FanGraphs has Cleveland with a 19.5 percent chance of winning the division.
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It's a trade that might take some of the wind out of fans' collective sails while the Guardians have bobbed just above and then below .500 for weeks. But for a team with so many flaws and key injuries as it is, turning it down would have almost seemed impossible given the return, the long-term need and the sudden change in Civale's trade market value from a month ago.
The Guardians are always having to balance the hope of winning now with the need to build for the future. The Civale deal might now be the most severe recent example of that internal tug-of-war.
And while the Guardians traded away a veteran starting pitcher, the Twins did, well, nothing at all. The most winnable division baseball saw both teams either remain stagnant or pull off a deal with, more than anything, 2024 and beyond in mind.
Hey, somebody's gonna have to win the division.
Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis@thebeaconjournal.com. Read more about the Guardians at www.beaconjournal.com/sports/cleveland-guardians. Follow him on Twitter at @ByRyanLewis .
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Cleveland Guardians 2023 trade deadline Aaron Civale trade complicated
