It's no secret that expectations are low for the BYU football team heading into the 2024 season, after the Cougars went 5-7 and missed the postseason during their first year in the Big 12.
How much would a second straight losing season put a strain on ninth-year head coach Kalani Sitake ?
One national writer believes the Cougars coach needs to improve the team's fortunes fast, or it could lead to serious job security questions.
Last week, just days after the Big 12 preseason media poll was released and the Cougars were predicted to finish 13th in the new 16-team league, CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd released his hot seat rankings for college coaches entering the 2024 season.
Dodd has made this an annual summertime article, and the year prior, Sitake had been counted among the head coaches who were "safe and secure" in their job security.
After all, to that point, BYU had missed the postseason just once in Sitake's tenure and he had gone 56-34 as the Cougars' coach, with five straight winning seasons.
Perceptions changed, though, after BYU ended its first Big 12 season on a five-game losing streak, finishing 2-7 in conference play.
Now, the Cougars are expected to struggle again in 2024.
Dodd, thusly, placed Sitake among just nine coaches nationally who rate among the two highest hot seat categories on his rankings.
On a scale that goes from zero (designated as "untouchable") to five ("win or be fired"), Sitake comes in at a four ("start improving now"). He's one of eight coaches in that category, with Arkansas ' Sam Pittman the only coach to be classified in the five category.
"Did the Big 12 expose BYU, or was 2023 a dip in the Cougars' fortunes? This season will go a long way toward answering that question," Dodd wrote .
"BYU gave Sitake a contract extension in 2021 (through 2027) after a 29-9 run from 2018-20. The Cougars promptly went 5-7 in their first season in the Big 12, beating only three FBS teams. Without Texas and Oklahoma , the league is wide open. BYU is being mentioned nowhere near the top of contention. Since going 11-1 in 2020, the Cougars have declined each of the next three seasons."
Dodd also suggested that BYU may need to win a couple games midseason during a particularly difficult stretch — when the Cougars play four of the top five projected teams in the Big 12 during a five-game span — to help get the heat off their head coach.
This comes after BYU has gone just 1-6 during October the past two seasons.
"Beating Arizona and Oklahoma State at home in back-to-back October weeks seems like a must," Dodd wrote.
This comes one year after Sitake was ranked "safe and secure" Dodd's scale.
Another league coach also lands in the four category with Sitake: Baylor's Dave Aranda.
Since going 12-2 and winning the Big 12 in 2021, Aranda's Bears have had losing seasons each of the past two years, including a 3-9 mark last season.
Last offseason, Aranda was also in the "safe and secure" category, even with one losing season at that point. That's changed, though.
Baylor coach Dave Aranda, right, slaps the hand of quarterback Blake Shapen in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Oklahoma, Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Norman, Okla. Could the Bears coach be on the hot seat in 20024? | Nate Billings, Associated Press
"Less than two seasons ago, Aranda was hot and Baylor was hotter. In his second season, Aranda won the Big 12 as the Bears won 12 games overall, including the Sugar Bowl. Since then, Baylor is 9-16. Another sub.-500 season probably won't be tolerated," Dodd wrote.
"Aranda was forced to reshape the staff in the offseason. For the third time in five years, he has a new set of coordinators. Aranda is back to calling the defense. Former Texas State coach Jake Spavital is running the offense, but his units haven't finished above 85th nationally since 2018. "
Of the other 14 coaches in the Big 12, the majority rate anywhere from a 0 to 2 ("all good ... for now"), including Utah's Kyle Whittingham as one of three league coaches in the "untouchable" designation as he heads into his 20th season with expectations arguably as high as they've ever been.
Only two Big 12 coaches land in the three category — or "pressure is mounting." That includes Cincinnati 's Scott Satterfield and West Virginia 's Neal Brown, who was rated a five last year and put himself in a safer hot-seat ranking position after leading the Mountaineers to a 9-4 record last year, including 6-3 in conference play.
