What are BYU’s latest bowl projections, and why is BYU-Colorado in the Alamo Bowl possible?

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What are BYU’s latest bowl projections, and why is BYU-Colorado in the Alamo Bowl possible?

Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) and his teammates celebrate their win over the Houston Cougars in Provo on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. BYU won 30-18. | Jeffrey D. Allred, Deseret News

Brandon Judd · Deseret News

Tue, Dec 3, 2024 ·

8 min read

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Here's what we know about the Big 12 bowl situation going into conference championship weekend: there are nine Big 12 teams that are bowl eligible this season, and two of them — Arizona State and Iowa State — are in the best position to make the College Football Playoff.

The No. 16 Sun Devils and No. 18 Cyclones will play in Saturday's Big 12 championship game (10 a.m. MST, ABC), with the winner in solid position to make the CFP in the fifth (and final) automatic qualifying spot awarded to a conference champion.

There's even an outside chance either Arizona State or Iowa State could earn the No. 4 seed in the CFP (and a first-round bye) as the fourth-highest automatic qualifier, if Boise State — the projected Mountain West champion — is beaten by UNLV in the MWC championship.

Where does that leave BYU in all of this?

The No. 19 Cougars, after going 10-2 during the regular season and 7-2 in conference play, missed out on making the Big 12 championship game, due to losing out on the league's tiebreaking scenarios that determined who played in the title game. Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado all went 7-2 in Big 12 play this season.

As such, the Cougars' hopes for making the playoff are over, even if mathematically it isn't technically a done deal yet — ESPN's Football Power Index still gives BYU a 15.1% chance of making the CFP, the only other Big 12 team besides Arizona State and Iowa State that the FPI believes still has a shot at the playoff.

What is the most popular bowl destination projection for BYU?

The Deseret News surveyed nine different national bowl projections for this story — those predictions, both for BYU and the entire Big 12, can be found at the end of this article.

Of the nine national bowl projections surveyed, six of them have BYU facing Colorado in the Alamo Bowl, while another has the Cougars playing Washington State in the Alamo Bowl. Two others have BYU taking on an ACC team — either Miami or Clemson — in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.

Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, second from left, celebrates after throwing a pass for a touchdown with, from left, offensive lineman Justin Mayers, offensive lineman Cash Cleveland (52) and wide receiver LaJohntay Wester (10) in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Oklahoma State Friday, Nov. 29, 2024, in Boulder, Colo. | David Zalubowski

Why can BYU play fellow Big 12 school Colorado in a bowl game?

Though BYU and Colorado are now in the same conference, the two teams did not play during the regular season. The Big 12 schools could play in the postseason, though, thanks to an odd byproduct of the mass amounts of conference realignment that have impacted college sports.

With how quickly the Pac-12 fell apart — dropping from 12 teams in 2023 to just two in 2024 — the league worked with the Big 12, ACC and Big Ten to retain bowl partners for the 2024 and 2025 seasons .

This season and next, Pac-12 legacy members that become bowl eligible will still have bowl tie-ins with the Pac-12 — if they don't make it to the College Football Playoff.

In the case of the Alamo Bowl, it has bowl tie-ins with both the Big 12 and the Pac-12, and as you can see below, it's at the top of the list in terms of order of selection for both leagues, after the College Football Playoff teams are determined.

Going into Tuesday's penultimate CFP rankings, BYU is the third-highest ranked Big 12 team in the CFP rankings, behind Arizona State and Iowa State, while No. 25 Colorado was fifth — though Kansas State is likely to drop out after losing to Iowa State last week.

That puts the Cougars in a favorable position to either play in the Alamo Bowl or Pop-Tarts Bowl. Of course, the result of Saturday's Big 12 championship could impact BYU's projection as well — Arizona State is the overwhelming favorite to win the title game.

There are seven legacy Pac-12 members who are bowl eligible this season — Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, USC, Washington and Washington State — and the Ducks and Sun Devils are projected to make the CFP.

Colorado, at 9-3, has the best record among the remaining Pac-12 legacy members and could be viewed as the most likely team to take the Pac-12 spot in the Alamo Bowl, though that could change if Arizona State loses in the Big 12 championship.

Big 12 bowls, 2024-25 season

Listed in order of selection

College Football Playoff
Alamo Bowl
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Texas Bowl
Liberty Bowl
Rate Bowl
Armed Forces Bowl
TBD, ESPN Events pool of bowls

Big 12 teams eligible for these bowls:Baylor, BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Pac-12 legacy bowls, 2024-25 season

Listed in order of selection

College Football Playoff
Alamo Bowl
Holiday Bowl
Las Vegas Bowl
Sun Bowl
LA Bowl
Independence Bowl

Big 12 teams eligible for these bowls:Arizona State, Colorado

When will bowl matchups be announced?

Official bowl announcements will be made this Sunday, Dec. 8.

The final College Football Playoff rankings and CFP matchups will be announced during a four-hour selection show on ESPN that begins at 10 a.m. MST.

Once the 12-team CFP field is determined, other bowl matchups will be announced later in the day — those are less formal than the CFP selection, and there's no set time for those matchups to be officially unveiled.