Cleveland Browns predictions: 2024 win-loss record projection, do they make NFL playoffs?

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Cleveland Browns predictions: 2024 win-loss record projection, do they make NFL playoffs?

Chris Easterling and Nate Ulrich, Akron Beacon Journal · Akron Beacon Journal

Sat, Sep 7, 2024 ·

4 min read

Chris Easterling's prediction: Browns go 10-7 and get final wild card

Here's a massive caveat right out of the gate. The Browns can't afford to go through what they went through a year ago with all of the quarterback injuries, specifically to Deshaun Watson , and expect to get back to the playoffs.

It's just not happening for them if that happens.

OK, having gotten that out of the way, there are a couple of reasons for this prediction. It's a prediction that doesn't necessarily require Watson to morph back into 2020 league passing leader form, but just be a consistent top-10 to top-12 quarterback for at least 16 games.

This prediction starts with the defense, which was statistically the best in the league a year ago in their first season with Jim Schwartz coordinating. The second year under Schwartz, with a large percentage of the starters/regulars returning and reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett anchoring, could spell even bigger things.

Then there's the schedule. Yes, there's a number of tough games — six against the other AFC North teams, plus the Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs , Philadelphia Eagles , Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins — but a large percentage of those games are at the back end of the schedule.

There's a pathway — again, with Watson just playing consistently like a top-12 quarterback and the defense playing like a top-3 to top-5 unit — to build up a nice record going into December. At that point, let the push for the playoffs really get going.

Nate Ulrich's prediction: Browns go 9-8 and miss the playoffs

This is the same exact prediction from last year, and the Browns appeared to be on track to match it at one point until a 38-year-old Joe Flacco hopped off his couch to become the best story in the NFL during a four-game winning streak in December.

Well, Flacco is long gone. The Browns let him walk in free agency and signed Jameis Winston in March as their No. 2 quarterback. Flacco redefining December in Berea apparently created too much internal consternation about Deshaun Watson looking over his surgically repaired throwing shoulder, but you've heard enough company lines by now about Winston being a better fit for Cleveland's modified offense than a 2012 Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl champion who instantly endeared himself to a rival franchise.

Believe what you want about the motives for moving on from Flacco. The bottom line is Winston had better be ready to win because Watson's recent injury history suggests a 17-game season is a long shot for him.

If the Browns could merely receive average quarterback play on a consistent basis from Watson or any combination of Watson and backups Winston and Dorian Thompson-Robinson , they should find themselves in the hunt for a second consecutive playoff berth.

The main reason is the defense is special. It's also not satisfied after finishing the 2023 regular season ranked first in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game (270.2), only to be torched by the Houston Texans in a 45-14 wild-card playoff loss.

Reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett has repeatedly stated coordinator Jim Schwartz and all of his men know the Browns must defend much better on the road and focus on making substantial improvements in the red zone.

History indicates regression is in the cards for a defense so thoroughly dominant last year. On the other hand, history doesn't account for the bevy of injuries the 2023 defense endured.

The offense was decimated, too, and four-time Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb coming back in October from two knee surgeries could give the Browns a morale boost no one should underestimate. Still, Chubb's absence for at least the first four games of the season matters. He's the best Browns player not named Garrett.

The team's success doesn't solely hinge on Watson, but it does to a great extent. Offensive coaching staff and schematic changes have been executed to accommodate him. The overall talent of the roster is among the league's elite.

Although Watson played better in 2023 than 2022, he remains miles away from proving he's worth $230 million guaranteed and a trade package including three first-round draft picks. He's nowhere close to convincing he can recreate the type of late-season magic Flacco conjured up last year, especially with a more difficult schedule on the horizon.

In Cleveland's final five regular-season games, it will face four of the six 2023 playoff teams on its schedule.