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Our College Football Playoff bracket prediction. Who takes home the national championship?
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- Our College Football Playoff bracket prediction. Who takes home the national championship?
The bracket is set. The matchups are set. Who wins the College Football Playoff to become the first national champion of the 12-team era?
The favorites will be top seeds Oregon and Georgia. The Ducks are the lone unbeaten team in the Bowl Subdivision after running through the Big Ten as first-year members of the conference. Georgia closed out the program's third SEC championship under coach Kirby Smart by beating Texas for the second time this season .
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But the Ducks and Bulldogs will have to contend with a blueblood-heavy cast of at-large playoff teams, including Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee and Notre Dame.
Overall, it's not difficult to make a case for any one of seven teams running through the bracket unscathed. That leaves Clemson, SMU, Indiana, Boise State and Arizona State as the clear underdogs in this big-name field of national heavyweights.
With the pairings set for the opening round and the four top seeds locked into a bye before the quarterfinals, here's the USA TODAY Sports game-by-game prediction for the 12-team playoff:
POSTSEASON LINEUP: Complete college football bowl schedule
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ROUGH ROAD: Oregon got No. 1 seed but not an easy playoff path
College Football Playoff first round
No. 5 Texas defeats No. 12 Clemson
Texas will benefit from the payoff for losing the SEC: the No. 5 seed. That results in a draw of three-ranked Clemson and then Arizona State, the lowest-ranked conference champion in the quarterfinals. The Tigers can pull the upset here but it starts with putting the game in Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers ' hands and demands error-free football from quarterback Cade Klubnik . Look for the Texas talent level to eventually win out with a higher level of overall consistency and key a double-digit win.
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No. 6 Penn State over No. 11 SMU
Make no mistake, the Mustangs have the firepower on offense to ride into Happy Valley and knock off Penn State. They need to create an up-tempo, high-scoring matchup with quarterback Kevin Jennings using his dual-threat ability. But that's easier said than done given the Nittany Lions' ferocious defense. Like Texas, the Nittany Lions need a solid game from Drew Allar at quarterback but has room for error against the ACC runner-up because of its running game with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen .
No. 7 Notre Dame over No. 10 Indiana
A relatively weak strength of schedule has Notre Dame flying under the radar as a legitimate contender. The Fighting Irish have one of the best-balanced team from offense to defense and special teams. Likewise with Indiana, even if the Hoosiers' chances of winning one or more playoff games is viewed with a high degree of skepticism. Look for Notre Dame to slow down Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers while punishing the Indiana defense with the nation's third-ranked running game in yards per carry.
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No. 8 Ohio State over No. 9 Tennessee
This is the premier pairing of the opening round and a nice barometer of how playoff games could unfold between the best of the best in the Big Ten and SEC. Given two evenly matched teams with similar traits, two factors will make the difference in Ohio State's favor: homefield advantage and a more credible offense. Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard has more experience and better skill options. But another big game from Volunteers signal caller Nico Iamaleava could easily shift this game in the opposite direction.
Quarterfinals
Texas over No. 4 Arizona State
Again, Texas benefits from landing in the No. 5 seed. Arizona State enters the postseason on a six-game winning streak thanks to the backfield pairing of quarterback Sam Leavitt and running back Cam Skattebo. This is a different level of challenge than the Big 12 for the Sun Devils , who will need another herculean effort from the latter to loosen up the Longhorns' defense and score what would be a significant upset.
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Penn State over No. 3 Boise State
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the quarterfinals 131 yards shy of Barry Sanders' single-season record of 2,628 rushing yards. He'll face a brick wall in Penn State, which ranks ninth in yards allowed on the ground per game and third in rushing touchdowns allowed. Any chance the Broncos have of advancing to the semifinals demands another big game from Jeanty, and it's hard to say for certain he'll find creases against the Nittany Lions' front. If Penn State can slow him down, that would put all the pressure Boise State quarterback Maddux Madden and his receivers to execute at a level not been seen this season.
Notre Dame over No. 2 Georgia
Here's the first major upset of the playoff. One thing to keep in mind is the potential availability of quarterback Carson Beck , who was injured just before halftime of the SEC championship game and underwent an MRI on Sunday. Even if he's back in the lineup, will Beck be healthy enough to deliver against the nation's best pass defense? Notre Dame has allowed opponents to complete just 48.7% of attempts with 17 interceptions against just nine touchdowns.
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No. 1 Oregon over Ohio State
Oregon's been here before, scoring a 32-31 win during the regular season, and can use the same blueprint to score a second victory against the Buckeyes. While the Buckeyes can shift this narrative with a strong game against Tennessee, these resemble two teams moving in different directions: Oregon up, Ohio State down. Beating the Ducks would demand a major uptick in production and explosiveness from an offense that has scuffled since late October.
Oregon running back Noah Whittington (6) breaks away from Maryland linebacker Daniel Wingate (16) during the second half at Autzen Stadium.
Semifinals
Notre Dame over Penn State
Two stingy defenses will decide will help rekindle a rivalry that has been dormant since Penn State's 31-10 win in 2007. The Nittany Lions could be made one-dimensional by Notre Dame's ability to shut things down through the air. If so, it'll be tough sledding for Penn State. But the Irish will have to deliver through the air, too, so quarterback Riley Leonard would need to continue his strong play after a slow start to the regular season. Notre Dame's edge in creating big plays from scrimmage could be the biggest factor.
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Oregon over Texas
This matchup would be reminiscent of Washington's shootout win against Texas in last year's semifinals. Then as now, Texas will need to make every possession count and avoid giving Oregon extra snaps through costly giveaways. The Longhorns' best path to victory might even call for slowing things down and hammering the Ducks' defensive front on the ground, making things easier for Ewers. Oregon has more options on offense and could still find ways into the end zone even if its running game can't find a foothold. It's also worth noting, Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel has already beaten the Longhorns in his career in a memorable victory with Oklahoma last season.
National championship game
Oregon over Notre Dame
Here we are: Oregon against Notre Dame for the first time in postseason play. The two have met twice during the regular season, most recently in a 13-13 tie in 1982. The Irish could claim the program's first national championship since 1988 by matching the Ducks' quick-strike offense with a methodical running game and an unbending defense. Oregon wins by leaning on the full arsenal of its skill talent. This would be a monster test for the Ducks. But the best team in the nation during the regular season closes things out as the first title winner of the 12-team format.
(This story has been updated to add a photo gallery)
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College Football Playoff bracket prediction: Who wins national title?
